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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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30 Jul, 5 tweets, 3 min read
QUICK THREAD on Vaccines:

Vaccinations have slowed down, esp 1st doses. About 6 million adults left without a first dose & 9 million on just one dose.

Will take about 6-8 weeks to give those 9m a second dose. And we need to work on making it easy for 6m to get their 1st.
Overall we still have 30% ish of population unprotected by vaccination. Note that about 20% of pop are children not eligible for vaccines (yet!).

Wales furthest ahead with its vax programme, followed by Scotland.
67% of 18-24 yr olds in England have had their first dose which is promising.

But more worryingly quite a lot of 40-49 yr olds still need their 2nd jab.

In younger adults, women more likely to take up vax than men.
Differential uptake by ethnicity is still stark.

SAGE have recognised this is an issue as well - it really makes a difference if we can get from 85% to 90% coverage. And even more from 70% to 90% in younger groups!

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Another SAGE doc considers risks from waning and new variants.

Risks are substantial but likely not just yet - vaccines are fantastic, but we might need regular boosters and we need to try to keep cases down ... /END
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
30 Jul
THREAD: latest covid situation in UK (mainly England) and what I think is going on...

TLDR: I *do* think there has been a recent drop in transmission, due to combo of different things. Might not be quite as big as seems and might not last.

(22 tweets)
2. UK cases have dropped quite a bit since 19 July, but gone up a bit again over last couple of days. 29K cases today keeps it higher than it was earlier in week but lower than last week.
3. Different patterns for each nation. But Scotland has been dropping consistently since early July in cases & positivity rate. Positivity rates still quite high though.

England dropping since 19 July & also seeing declines in positivity rate. It's not just fewer tests.
Read 23 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
24 Jul
LONG THREAD: so I said yesterday I felt that the schools study in daily testing instead of isolation of pupils had been misreported. I don't think study tells you very much except that neither isolation or testing are working very well in schools.

Here is why...
What does study do? It takes 201 schools and assigns 99 to be "controls" - ie continue as normal, asking contacts of children with new confirmed covid to isolate for 10 days. The other 102 schools get assigned to "daily contact testing" (DCT) for contacts instead of isolation.
The hypothesis was that children in the DCT (testing) schools would miss fewer schools days than those in the control (isolation) schools without impacting 'too much' on transmission of covid.
Read 26 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
23 Jul
LONG COVID THREAD:

The people running the BBC Horizon "Great British Intelligence Test" challenge on over 80,000 people took the opportunity to see if they could detect any differences by whether people had had covid or not...
2. They did this because of increasing concern over reoprted cognitive impacts of long covid - but more evidence is badly needed. Image
3. What they found was significant cognitive deficit for people who'd had covid compared to people that hadn't, after controlling for things like age, education, sex, first language etc.

The degree of deficit was worse the more severe the initial covid infection had been. Image
Read 13 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
22 Jul
15 Tweet THREAD on current cases & trajectory:

Cases this week have been bit lower than many expected (inc me!). Have we peaked?

Here are my thoughts for what they're worth...

TLDR: lots of possible things combining. I don't think this is the peak.
2. we know PCR testing capacity is stretched. Test & Trace reporting longer test turnaround times and results taking longer to make it to the dashboard.

Looking at results by date of test to 5 days ago (17 July), things still increasing everywhere but Scotland.
3. Looks as if the combined dampening effect of Scotland being knocked out of Euros, school term ending and final opening delayed has helped bring cases down. Which is very good news.

Term ended in Wales on 16th July and today in England. That will bring cases down from now.
Read 15 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
22 Jul
It is quite possible that we can't achieve herd immunity with Delta through (current) vaccines alone.



This makes being vaxxed even *more* desirable as you can't rely on enough others being immune to protect you by suppressing the virus as a population.
Regardless of herd immunity threshold, the more people vaccinated, the better it is - better for individuals as risk of severe illness is massively lower and better for everyone else as it brings down R since you are less likely to be infected or transmit.
And if/when we do reach some level of population immunity, I'd rather my immunity came from vaccination rather than infection which is why I am v pleased to be vaccinated!
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
19 Jul
Maybe 2%+ of 20 somethings currently have covid. That's at least 1 in 50 people. Even removing the actively symptomatic or those isolating, pretty much every nightclub with more than a couple hundred people will still have *at least* 1 person there who has covid.
Repeat each day
I don't blame people for clubbing at all. I blame the government for putting us all in this situation of crazy high infections and all the guard rails removed.
Link to ONS infection survey on prevalence ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Read 4 tweets

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