MYTH 1: I don’t have any symptoms, so even if I have Covid I won’t give it to anyone else
Yes you can - both if you never get symptoms and in the few days before you get symptoms.
MYTH 2: I won’t pick up or transmit the virus because I’m fully vaccinated
Being vaccinated means you are less likely to catch Covid and probably less likely to transmit, but you certainly can still catch it and pass it on, esp in the early days of your infection.
MYTH 3: I’ve had Covid already, so I don’t need the vaccine
Vaccination gives you better immunity than being infected. The best immunity we see is in people who've had covid and full vax. Go get super-immune.
MYTH 4: I have a good immune system so I don’t need the vaccine
You can still get quite sick or end up with long covid. Plus you can infect others who might not be as lucky as you. So get vaccinated.
MYTH 5: Children are fine if they get Covid
Children are much less at risk than adults but it's not a zero risk and while they remain vaccinated, high infections in children will lead to some unfortunately being very ill and some getting long covid.
MYTH 6: Masks don’t work
They do. They are not a magic bullet but mask wearing is associated with about 20% reduction in transmission. Follow @trishgreenhalgh for all the evidence!
TLDR slow growth in cases & hospitalisations flat. But both cases and hospitalisations remain very high.
Plus some perspective internationally, over time and on kids.
19 tweets.
1. Cases have been creeping up across the UK for last few weeks. Positivity rates are going up in all nations except NI (but that's also where they are highest).
ONS says prevalence flat everywhere except Scotland so slightly different but represents infections a bit earlier.
2. Cases are highest in NI, SW (tourism?), North & Midlands.
All regions in England are going up except the NE which is still coming down from its massive peak.
THREAD on Schools:
The problem with the reporting around the PHE/LSHTM school data is that it's being used to say that schools aren't a problem and don't need mitigations.
But it's based on comparing rates in June 2021 vs Nov 2020. ONS infection survey agrees that rates in school kids were lower in June 2021 (<1%) compared to Nov 2020 (~2%). So what's wrong with the headlines?
They wrongly imply that we don't need to make schools safer. 2/8
Firstly, rates were accelerating from June and by July 2021, rates were over 3% in ONS in school age kids - matching the peak last December. This survey did not include these periods. 3/8
QUICK THREAD ON VACCINES & DELTA: Friday's @PHE_uk report said that viral load in infected vaccinated people was similar to that of uninfected people.
As has been pointed out by others, this does *not* mean all is lost and vaccines don't work.
10 tweet thread explaining why!
1. when you get a PCR test, they measure how many "cycles" you need before getting a positive signal. The more cycles you need, the weaker the original signal.
Lower numbers for "cycle threshold" (CT value) are thought to indicate higher viral load at the time test was taken.
2. In Friday's report, PHE report that CT values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated cases for both Alpha and Delta.
They conclude that once infected there "is limited difference in viral load" bewteen vax & unvax.
QUICK THREAD on English Covid situation (6 tweets).
1. Overall cases have stopped going down and have been flat over the last week.
2. Most regions are flat, but NE continuing to decline a lot from its large peak and some regions Yorks, E Midlands, SW) are going up slightly.
Similar patterns nationally & regionally in positivity rate.
3. Cases are now very concentrated in young adults. Cases in under 15s have dropped a lot since end of term - partly fewer cases and partly less testing.
Cases dropping older adults too but more slowly than in children.
THREAD: latest covid situation in UK (mainly England) and what I think is going on...
TLDR: I *do* think there has been a recent drop in transmission, due to combo of different things. Might not be quite as big as seems and might not last.
(22 tweets)
2. UK cases have dropped quite a bit since 19 July, but gone up a bit again over last couple of days. 29K cases today keeps it higher than it was earlier in week but lower than last week.
3. Different patterns for each nation. But Scotland has been dropping consistently since early July in cases & positivity rate. Positivity rates still quite high though.
England dropping since 19 July & also seeing declines in positivity rate. It's not just fewer tests.