Thread by @alok_bhatt

Everything in Afghan is redux of the late 80s & early '90s or most importantly the phase that ended with the capture of Kabul by the Taliban in Sep 96. Now as Afghanistan & world is staring at a similar fall of Kabul to Taliban,it is important to put things in proper perspective!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426024370711920641

While genesis of much of Afghan's probs lay in series of Anglo-Afghan wars- 2nd(1878-1880) followed by Treaty of Gandamak of 1879, Durand Line agreement of 1893 & 3rd Anglo Afghan War that finally culminated in Rawalpindi Treaty of 1919 & Treaty of 1921

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1155864103430184961?s=20

But let us keep the historical perspective of those wars aside for the time being (although fact is that just like Kashmir, Afghanistan represents an all-important unfinished agenda and outcome of the majority of the games played by Britishers in the sub-continent ).....

Actually, Afghanistan has always been of huge interest to me- part of the reason lies in the fact that as a kid I had read abt exile of Afghans royal family to Dehradun after developing interest seeing Aslam Khan-an ex Afghan royal member-play cricket In Dehradun's Survey ground!

So current phase of the problems that Afghans are facing today began on July 17, 1973 when Mohammed Daoud Khan- a member of the Afghan royal family- led a coup with the help of officers of the Afghan army - mostly known as Parchamites (for their pro-socialist leanings)

Seizure of power by Mohammed Daoud Khan led to formation of Republic in which majority of the positions were given to those with pro-Communist leanings - like Babrak Karmal- who later served as GS and Chairman of the Polit Bureau of PDPA until 1986

Daoud Khan was the one who was bitterly opposed to Pakistan and was the first influential voice to have rejected the Durand Line in 1947 at the time of formation of Pakistan. He wanted areas of Pashnutistan under Pak control to reunify with Afghanistan and fought 2 wars for that

Both the short wars or incursions (1960 and 1961) were localised to Bajaur agency and both times his forces had to face defeat. The war culminated in the closure of borders by Pakistan and subsequent rise of then USSR which emerged as the main provider of help to Afghanistan

After Khan established Afghan as a republic, new leadership began aking shape against his socialist style of governance-
1. Burhanuddin Rabbani- Prof of Islamic Theology at Kabul University
2. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar-Engineering student of KU
3. Massoud- Engineering student @ KU

All 3 shared interesting association and by the mid-80s- Rabbani and Hekmatyar were, both hailed as Afghanistan naam ki gaadi ke 2 tyres (without which Afghanistan cannot run/move at all)

At KU, Rabbani founded Sazman i Jawanan i Musulman, the student arm of the Jamaat e Islami became a key resistance force against the growing influence of Parchamites or socialists and was for the establishment of Islamic society.

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426056348924485635?s=20

Both parted their ways soon thereafter & radical elements represented by Hekmatyar faction went on to form Hezb e islami while moderate faction represented by Massoud joined forces with Rabbani's JeI. Important to mention that both Rabbani & Hekmatyar were close to MB of Egypt

It was during Bhutto's tenure and to counter Khan's interference in Pashtunistan, Pakistan started using ISI for its proxy war in Afghanistan. As Khan tried to distance himself from Parchamites within his own govt, he also fell back on Pashtunistan idea again to rally support

The radical elements opposed to Khan, escaped to Pakistan & secured its refuge & support to fight Khan's govt in Kabul. His govt managed to repulse their resistance. Before this,one more event that decided the course of Afg was formation of Khan's own National revolutionary party

As Khan was facing heat from all quarters, he tried to improve relations with Bhutto & that resulted in Bhutto's visit to Afg in June 76, which was repaid by Khan via a visit to Pak in Aug 76. On Mar 2, 1977, both signed an agreement to resume air travel between Af & Pak

Bhutto, taking advantage of Khan's falling equations at home, managed to extract crucial concessions and managed to pin him down to the mat on Durand line acceptance by then Afg govt....

And then two things happened in quick succession-
Khan's Moscow visit in Apr 77 and subsequent estrangement of relations with USSR that culminated in Saur revolution of 27 April 1978. This coup was preceded by the July coup in Islamabad, leading to ouster of Bhutto by Zia!

After few months of trial,Bhutto was awarded death sentence on 18Mar78. All the while Bhutto and his lawyers were trying to save his life from the imminent hanging, Khan & his family members were executed by forces loyal to PDPA on 28Apr78,Bhutto was hanged a year later on 4Apr79

And thus began a new chapter of Pak-Afg relations. Islamabad was led by Zia while PDPA assumed power in Kabul. People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan or popularly known as PDPA had two factions- moderate Parchamites (from Urban centres) and radical Khalqs (from tribal class)

Leader of the Khalq section of PDPA was Nur Muhammad Taraki and Hafizullah Amin while Parchamites were primarily led by Babrak Kamal. The govt that was formed under PMShip of Taraki was joined by Kamal as his Deputy and Amin as the FM!

Soon thereafter, massive land reforms were launched by PDPA, women were given equal status in a highly regressive tribal society. The Khalqists were more radical of the two and had majority-their idea was more centred around classical Leninist style worker's revolution

As against Khalqists, Parchamites in minority were of the view that country's situation is not conducive to radical Leninist ideas and should be built around nationalistic and anti-imperialistic ideas

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426072688133492736?s=20

Khalqists represented by Taraki soon started a massive purge- both within and outside the Government. All the leading Parchamites were sent to foreign countries as Ambassadors - So Kamal was sent to Czechoslovakia while Nazibullah was sent to Iran!

Then began a reign of terror and political executions, which coupled with massive land reforms became a primary reason for the revolt in tribal areas and massive uprising by the rival warlords- capitalised very well by neighbouring Pakistan.

Taraki's reform moves led to uprising of March 79 also known as Herat uprising. This prompted Taraki to seek active soviet help. His request, first made to Alexei Kosygin and later to Brehezenv was more or less rejected. Both advised him to seek unity b/w Khalqists & Parchamites

At home, tensions b/w 2 Khalqists-Taraki & Amin were increasing by the day and as news reached Amin of his impending execution, he decided to turn the tables on Taraki, who he helped built a cult following. Amin's time came after Taraki returned to Kabul from his Moscow visit!

As soon as Taraki landed in Kabul on 11 Sep 1979 (note the date and the coincidence), he ordered for the removal of Amin. Soviets tried to broker peace between the two but it failed after forces loyal to Taraki tried to kill Amin and other PDPA leaders during a lunch on 14Sep79

Amin mobilised forces loyal to him and took over the presidential palace and arrested Taraki on 16 Sep 1979. Soviets didn't intervene as they knew Amin loyalists had an edge. Later Amin installed himself as the leader and announced that Taraki had resigned due to ill health

Taraki was executed by the Amin loyalists on 8th Oct 1979thus ending the rule of Taraki who was a close aide of Brezhenev. Amin's rule that began on 16th September 1979 proved to be short-lived and ended on 27th Dec 1979 after Soviet's entry into Kabul on 25Dec79 !

Parchamita Babrak Kamal was installed as the new leader of Afghanistan and Russians had entered much against the wishes of Brezhnev, Kosygin and even Gromyko - it was Yuri Andropov who prevailed in the end- all in the name of Brezhnev Doctrine!

And with Kamal's arrival in Kabul as the new leader of PDPA and Zia's takeover of Islamabad, the seeds of a never-ending conflict was sown.....something that is still bearing poisonous fruit till date....and is responsible for killing of millions of innocents to date!

This thread is still a WIP; next, I will write about 2nd phase that ended with the Geneva accords of 1988.
3rd phase of Afghan war was the one that ended with fall of Kabul to Taliban in Sep 1996. 4th phase ended with entry of Americans & 5th phase culminated with exit of US!

As we enter 6th & decisive phase of Afghan conundrum, Iam veering to the idea that only force that no one is talking about today is the invisible player -the new USSR of Afghanistan- People's republic of China and Xi is the new Brezhnev-reluctant but will get sucked in by Afg!

The incursions in Eastern Ladakh was more a part of China's Afghan game to insure/ shield Pakistan to allow it 2 play its game for China to d fullest- but for Chinese presence in Ladakh, India could have increased the costs on Pak- today they have no fear!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426086294598217729?s=20

Let us now delve into the 2nd & 3rd phase of the Afghan conflict-
2nd Phase- Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan up to 1988 Geneva Accords
3rd phase- that ended with takeover of Kabul by Taliban in 1996

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426085603041452034?s=20

After Soviets entered Afghanistan on 25 Dec 1979 and established Babrak Karmal as the new leader; he began trying to undo the damage that Taraki regime inflicted on Afghans but it was too late. Also,nature of Karmal's ascension was such that his gov cudnt gain legitimacy of Afg

As mentioned here, against the popular notion,the proxy war in Afghanistan didn't start with the arrival of the Soviets, it actually started in 1973 under Bhutto when he roped in then Brigadier Naseerullah Babar for creating an Aghhan resistance movement!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426061063947124745?s=20

Although, majority of people credit Zia/Gul as the architect of Afghan mujahideen resistance but fact is that it was ZA Bhutto and Babar who laid the foundation of this in Oct 73 when Babar was serving as IG of Frontier Corps wd single HQ for NWFP, Balochistan & Northern Areas

In Oct of 1973- 6 months after Mohammed Daoud Khan took over in Kabul- Babur was visited by an Afghan by the name of Habibur Rahman for seeking help to start the Afghan resistance movement. Babur conveyed it to ZAB who agreed instantly as they knew Khan!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426051856355139585?s=20

Babar's FC began giving weapons training as well as guerrilla warfare training by team of Pak's SSG- which thought that they are training Frontier Corps personnel as trainees were shown by Babar as FC troops. ISI was not involved in this plan and it continued until July 77!

The training of Afg men remained a secret operation and it was known only to Bhutto, Aziz Ahmad, then Pak COAS Tikka Khan & Nasirullah Babar. After Khan began raising heat in Kabul, Hekmatyar, Rabbani, Massoud etc also joined this training with their men!

Interestingly Naseerullah Babar was schooled in RIMC Dehradun before joining IMA in Dehradun. Babar's role would not remain limited to starting this training in 1973 but he would play an active role later and pain of his work is felt even today by Afghans as i write this thread!

But before Bhutto could make Khan sign the Durand line acceptance agreement, he was ousted by Zia and later executed on 4th April 79 - 6 months prior to entry of Soviet forces into Kabul

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426064366705594370?s=20

Ouster of Bhutto spoilt his plans to effect a regime change in Kabul via Zaheer Shah. Bhutto sent 2 of his emissaries-Wakil Shinwari & Yunus Khugiani-to meet Shah in Rome to convince him to come bk to Afg as a King under constitution to be drafted by Hizb's founder Musa Shafiq

Rabbani, Hekmatyar, Masooud etc were onboard this decision. Shah agreed for the plan and was to land in Islamabad after meeting Anwar Sadat of Egypt and Shah of Iran.....but then Zia happened and also Shah was toppled. On the other hand, Sadat was also killed in 81!

As Zia took over, he began working as per the structure designed by Babar/Bhutto. Initially, he suspended all the assistance given to the resistance movement but when Soviet forces marched into Kabul, he could smell the opportunity & thus began the Mujahideen movement

Zia saw Afghan invasion by the Soviets as a perfect opportunity to strengthen his position. Zia's tenure & training at Fort Leavenworth, helped project himself to Americans as their perfect agent to execute their plans in Kabul. Simultaneously, Zia began his Sharia project in Pak

Zia, saw Military solution as the only possible solution to the Afghan prob & ISI's role began increasing by the day. General Akhtar Abdur Rahman Khan through his tenure - 21Jun79 to 29Mar87- oversaw operation cyclone in active partnership with William Casey & Charlie Wilson

The leadership of ISI went to Hamid Gul on 29th March 87; only a few months thereafter on 17 August 1988, then Pak dictator Zia along with his General Akhtar & Arnold Lewis Raphel- US ambassador to Pak and Robin Raphel's husband- died in a plane crash at Bahwalpur.

All through the tenure of Zia and Akhtar, all the money that came for financing of afghan mujahideens was routed via ISI and they used to decide as to who will get how much- hear it from thr horse’s mouth itself

The amount of money that flowed into Pakistan for Afghan jihad helped fill coffers of Pakistani Gernails & helped them support their favourite warlords. So Gulbuddin Hekmatyar recd majority of the funds with Rabbani came second next, Massoud got pittance

Of all the warlords, Ahmad Shah Massoud wad the most successful of the lot and he was known for his rule of law in the Panjshir valley. Till his last, he remained invested in the cause of Afghanistan and broke bread with practically every force in his bid to bring peace to Afg

Massoud was not liked by Osama and until killers got him 2 days before 911, he had faced several unsuccessful attempts on his life. That is for other phase. Massoud was close to Rabbani but Hekmatyar was bitterly opposed to both. Until last he remained a darling hope of Pakistan!

Through the time that Soviet forces remained in Afghanistan, USSR saw baton of General Secretaryship of CPSU change 4 times:
1. Brezhnev died on 10Nov82
2. Andropov died on 9Feb84
3. Chernenko died 10 Mar85
4. Gorbachev took over on 11 Mar85 until few months before USSR breakup

3 deaths in quick succession led CPSU to choose younger Gorbachev over Andrei Gromyko. Infact it was Gromyko whose backing led to CPSU politburo accepting Gorbachev as the leader of party and the Soviet Union. It was Gorbachev who began effecting changes in Afghanistan

It was Gorbachev who facilitated the removal of Babrak Karmal from General Secretary position of PDAP on 4th May 1986. It was a Pashtun Nazibullah who replaced Karmal as the new GS. Nazibullah was the one who led KHAD- Afghna Intel agency for 6 yrs.

Nazib shared an excellent report with KGB Chief -Yuri Andropov & thanks to his work at KHAD, that he was appointed to PDPA politburo. Although Nazib wasn’t liked by many PDPA members but still he managed to get the responsibility ahead of Abdul Qadir & Asadullah Sarwari

Karmal was exiled to Moscow and PDPAs revolutionary council chairmanship was given to a non PDPA member Haji Chamkani for the influence he had on the Mujahids and in tribal societies down south of Afghanistan

Nazibullah began executing his mandate i.e. to facilitate withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan. At peak, they numbered close to 120000, same number as that of NATO forces during US led invasion of Afghanistan.

Nazib launched a national reconciliation program, announced ceasefire, Islam was again declared as the official religion. He tried to involved Zahir Shah in the peace process and even organised a loya jirga to approve new constitution.

All efforts to leverage Zahir Shah’s popularity to bring peace to Afghanistan failed to bear results due to opposition to his entry by Pak loyalist Hekmatyar and even Zia due to his views on Durand line. Zia wanted a radical puppet Govt in Afghanistan

The negotiations started by Nazib led to signing of Geneva Accords on 14 April 1988 between Pakistan & Afghanistan and under the guarantees given by USA and USSR. Soviet’s forces began withdrawing from Afg on 15 May 88 & final curtains on their stay in Kabul fell on 15 Feb 1989!

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426108104844877827

As can be seen from this the accord was a comprehensive one and it touched upon principles of mutual cooperation, non interference, provided for repatriation of refugees and also withdrawal of Soviet forces thus ending their invasion of Afghanistan

https://twitter.com/alok_bhatt/status/1426108692097736706

However, as mujahideens were not a party to the accord so they continued their attacks of Nazib Govt and peace continued to elude Afg even after the Soviet withdrawal. Nazeeb Govt remained in power until 1992

Soon after Soviet withdrawal,Gul smarting under the prospect of victory for his stooge Hekmatyar in sight, made mujahids launch an attack on Jalalabad in Mar 89 to establish regime change. Afghan forces of Nazib repulsed this attack and led to crushing defeat of Mujahideens

The attack not only proved that Afghan forces are no pushover after Soviet withdrawal but led to estrangement of the relations between Gul and Benazir and that led to Gul’s ouster on 27 May 89. He was succeeded by Shamshur Kallue!

The reversals suffered by mujahideens at Jalalabad led to major disagreements. Abdul Haq & Massoud didn’t participate in the attack & both used this reversal to launch a verbal attack on Pak. This verbal war became a reason for ISI using Hekmatyar against Massoud’s forces

Mujahideens minus Massoud & Haq, lregistered a crucial victory in Khost in 1991. City fell due to Nazib’s forces inability to keep supply lines working. Faced with no supplies, Govt forces surrendered & broke ranks with Govt to join Mujahids -story that repeats till date in Afg!