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Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
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14 Aug, 4 tweets, 3 min read
About a month ago I started thinking about time, its role in recovery, and in our lives.

futureofworkers.substack.com/p/time-is-money
Soon after, @anima_tk invited me to have a deeper dive with her on the 4-day work week, a trendy policy idea emerging from pandemic pressures.
I don't think so. Here's why. And what I think will *have* to happen re shorter work time. #FutureOfWorkers theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-d…
But the reason I'm writing this thread is that staycation has permitted the time to listen to/read some weird and wonderful ideas (and play in the garden, which provides a type of surprise/joy I don't get from anything else 👇🏽).

So I want to tell you about ... ImageImageImage
I just relistened to @anima_tk's interview with @omarelakkad about climate refugees.
theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-d…

Migration policies will shape the #FutureOfWorkers and the future of humanity.

This is as concise, cogent and compelling a review of the issues as you'll find.

• • •

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More from @ArmineYalnizyan

Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
16 Aug
@AbigailBimman Up to $6K for *families* with incomes under $30K
Also you can work while on maternity leave without getting whacked up to $1K a month, $250 a week! Yay?
More paragraphs on how you'll get time off if your child dies or you suffer a stillbirth/miscarriage than info on childcare.
@AbigailBimman Note: if Ontario (largest labour market) had signed a deal with the feds, the pledge to drop parent costs by 50% in 18 mths, $10/day average in 5 yrs would mean parents would save much more $.
For infant care in Toronto ($1685/mth) difference at 50% is $4k/yr more with Lib plan!
@AbigailBimman The two biggest voting blocs, ON and QC would be worse off.
1. QC doesn't have a cost problem, so the refundable tax credit, even for the poorest families, wouldn't offer much "cash for care" help. It has a "not enough good care" problem, but this platform doesn't address need.
Read 14 tweets
Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
16 Aug
Really superb.

Unemployment is 5.4% in the U.S.
could fall to 4% by year’s end.

#HumbleFed’s @neelkashkari has seriously thoughtful answers to main Q:
What definition of full employment is relevant in the early 21st century for monopol?

/2
One (of many) interesting issues: official UR (unemployment rate) is an average of many average unemployment rates of different demographic groups. One way to be sure labour market slack is falling is by seeing falling inequality between, say, Black and "official" UR.

/3
UR isn't the only/best indicator of labour market slack.
(Jesse Jackson, I think, used to say "There was full employment under slavery too.")
Quality of work is important.
So are LF participation rates. (UR drops if more people drop out of the labour force. #shecession)

/4
Read 8 tweets
Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
10 Mar
Have been crunching numbers on the relative size of the #CareEconomy in Canada, re paid work and contribution to GDP.
First, definition: health services (includes eldercare, home care, long-term care, social assistance) and education services (from childcare through PSE).

/2
Why include education services? Because it develops the potential of our youngest citizens, labour market entrants, and those with jobs or displaced from jobs.
/3
Pre-pandemic (2019) the Care Economy's % of GDP: 12.3% [health 7%, educ 5.3%]. Was 12.25% in 2020.

cf
Real estate: 12.7% (13.7% in 2020)
Manufacturing: 10% (9.5% in 2020)
Construction: 7.2% (7.3%)
Finance/Insurance: 6.9% (7.6%)
Oil and Gas: 5.6% (5.6%)
Retail: 5% (5.2%)

/4
Read 8 tweets
Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
7 Mar
"Immigration" debates that only focus on permanent newcomers are myopic.
The stunning trends in CDA's reliance on the temporary are embarrassing.

Cd @marcomendicino's plan to up "immigration" offer an opportunity to reduce this insanity?
thestar.com/news/insight/2…

#FutureOfWorkers
"Ironically, admitting more immigrants may be the surest path to a more equitable recovery"
"Though hard to imagine right now, we will soon be looking at widespread labour shortages"
So will every other rich nation dealing with population aging. Expect competition for newcomers!
Recipe for more immigration: More transitioning of temporary residents to permanent residents, please @marcomendocino.
Reverse these trends, that only started mid 2000s, and which defy one of foundations on which Canada became the 10th largest economy in the world: immigration.
Read 6 tweets
Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
6 Mar
Hello Alberta
I was comparing which province's women saw the most roll-back of gains in employment equity due to the pandemic.
It's you guys.
Women's employment rate in 2020 was back at the level it was in 1984.
P.S. More AB women had paid work than anywhere in CDA not long ago
cc. @LindsayTedds

It won't get any prettier, because the AB gov't is focused on balancing its budget, so is cutting the one good source of paid work for women: public service jobs.
Who's next in the pandemic parade?

Ontario.

The share of women with paid work is back at 1993 levels. (BTW this includes full- and part-time work, well paid and crappy jobs.)

Ontario peaked in the share of women doing paid work in 2007.
Read 7 tweets
Armine Yalnizyan Profile picture
9 Jan
An economist tackles the notion that competition law is about protecting consumers.
Notes economics views competition as being predominantly about "efficiency".
"You can't talk about competition without talking about power and dominance"
Keep your eyes on @RobinShaban, people.
You *live* this, but not often taught.

Pricing strategies among a small number of players in a market often devolve into collusion. (Think telcomm; grocery stores and bread prices; oil)
Not just abt consumer choice, but standards and scrutiny for incumbents and *new* entrants.
Market structure and market share is part of competition-restricting practices, but proving *illegality* requires proving a merger/accelerating market share leads to price increases or undermines innovation. Hard to show evidence, as allegation is the this is *going* to happen.
Read 25 tweets

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