Really superb.
Unemployment is 5.4% in the U.S.
could fall to 4% by year’s end.
#HumbleFed’s @neelkashkari has seriously thoughtful answers to main Q:
What definition of full employment is relevant in the early 21st century for monopol?
/2
Unemployment is 5.4% in the U.S.
could fall to 4% by year’s end.
#HumbleFed’s @neelkashkari has seriously thoughtful answers to main Q:
What definition of full employment is relevant in the early 21st century for monopol?
/2
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1427251422391844871
One (of many) interesting issues: official UR (unemployment rate) is an average of many average unemployment rates of different demographic groups. One way to be sure labour market slack is falling is by seeing falling inequality between, say, Black and "official" UR.
/3
/3
UR isn't the only/best indicator of labour market slack.
(Jesse Jackson, I think, used to say "There was full employment under slavery too.")
Quality of work is important.
So are LF participation rates. (UR drops if more people drop out of the labour force. #shecession)
/4
(Jesse Jackson, I think, used to say "There was full employment under slavery too.")
Quality of work is important.
So are LF participation rates. (UR drops if more people drop out of the labour force. #shecession)
/4
.@TheStalwart and @tracyalloway's questions touch on the role of unemployment/emergency benefits in shaping the employment rate and labour supply post-pandemic.
Great answers by @neelkashkari on what drives so-called labour shortages.
Important in Canada as we review EI.
/5
Great answers by @neelkashkari on what drives so-called labour shortages.
Important in Canada as we review EI.
/5
Inequalities in work, wage growth and labour force participation all shape whether or not we are nearing peak employment, and so need to pay attention to inflation.
And that touches on what kind of opportunities to learn and earn are available.
/6
And that touches on what kind of opportunities to learn and earn are available.
/6
.@neelkashkari notes workers' bargaining power is up. (Population aging means that could last.)
Changes to working time (not just wages) may be on the horizon. Not just 4 day work week.
theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-d…
That could change what peak employment looks like post-pandemic.
/7
Changes to working time (not just wages) may be on the horizon. Not just 4 day work week.
theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-d…
That could change what peak employment looks like post-pandemic.
/7
.@CABE_Economics' founder, Mike McCracken, never lost his focus on the centrality of full employment among all economic policies, even as mainstream thinking downgraded its importance and changed its definition.
CABE decided it was time to bring back the topic when he died.
/8
CABE decided it was time to bring back the topic when he died.
/8
Lael Brainard delivered the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment in January, with @wilkinscarolyna cabe.ca/webinar/full-e…
Can't duck the topic now.
Its importance is central as the @bankofcanada reviews its mandate, and EI is reviewed in the post-pandemic world.
Can't duck the topic now.
Its importance is central as the @bankofcanada reviews its mandate, and EI is reviewed in the post-pandemic world.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
