Derrick Henry is a very good running back who is getting drafted No. 3 overall in most PPR drafts.
That is way too high.
A thread by @JakesFFootball
#FantasyFootball #football #nfl #NFLTwitter #fantasyfootballadvice
That is way too high.
A thread by @JakesFFootball
#FantasyFootball #football #nfl #NFLTwitter #fantasyfootballadvice
Derrick Henry is coming off of a 2,000+ yard season. That's a huge season and will likely stand as the best season of his career. Why? Let's take a look at every other previous 2,000 yards rusher and what the season after their 2,000 yard season looked like.
1973 O.J. Simpson. 2,003 Yards. - in 14 games.
1974 O.J. Simpson. 1,125 Yards.
Not much changed for Simpson from one year to the next, he wasn't as efficient and didn't get as many carries. The few years after he did well again though.
1974 O.J. Simpson. 1,125 Yards.
Not much changed for Simpson from one year to the next, he wasn't as efficient and didn't get as many carries. The few years after he did well again though.
1984 Eric Dickerson. 2,105 Yards. - in 16 games.
1985 Eric Dickerson. 1,234 Yards.
Dickerson missed a few games in 1985. His 2,000 yard season was his most efficient ever. Also he was in his second season and was 24 years old.
That's a significant age
jakobsfantasyfootball.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-be…
1985 Eric Dickerson. 1,234 Yards.
Dickerson missed a few games in 1985. His 2,000 yard season was his most efficient ever. Also he was in his second season and was 24 years old.
That's a significant age
jakobsfantasyfootball.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-be…
1997 Barry Sanders. 2,053 Yards.
1998 Barry Sanders. 1,491 Yards.
Sanders retired after the 1998 season and he was 30 at the time, so you could say his loss of 2,000 yards here was because of age. Of course 1997 was his most efficient season.
1998 Barry Sanders. 1,491 Yards.
Sanders retired after the 1998 season and he was 30 at the time, so you could say his loss of 2,000 yards here was because of age. Of course 1997 was his most efficient season.
1998 Terrell Davis. 2,008 Yards.
1999 Terrell Davis. 211 Yards. - only played 4 games.
Davis went down to injury the year after his 2,000 yard season. He was not quite the same player after that.
1999 Terrell Davis. 211 Yards. - only played 4 games.
Davis went down to injury the year after his 2,000 yard season. He was not quite the same player after that.
2003 Jamal Lewis. 2,066 Yards.
2004 Jamal Lewis. 1,006 Yards. - only played in 12 games.
Jamal Lewis missed some time in 2004, but also his yards per carry were never as good as they were in 2003 either.
2004 Jamal Lewis. 1,006 Yards. - only played in 12 games.
Jamal Lewis missed some time in 2004, but also his yards per carry were never as good as they were in 2003 either.
2009 Chris Johnson. 2,006 Yards.
2010 Chris Johnson. 1,364 Yards.
Again here. Same deal with everyone else it seems. 2009 was Chris Johnson's most efficient season. His best Yards per carry. Also his second season and was 24.
2010 Chris Johnson. 1,364 Yards.
Again here. Same deal with everyone else it seems. 2009 was Chris Johnson's most efficient season. His best Yards per carry. Also his second season and was 24.
2012 Adrian Peterson. 2,097 Yards.
2013 Adrian Peterson. 1,266 Yards.
Adrian Peterson had a massive 2,000 Yard season, and he did miss a few games in 2013 as well. This was his 6th season and he was 27 years old.
Another significant running back age.
2013 Adrian Peterson. 1,266 Yards.
Adrian Peterson had a massive 2,000 Yard season, and he did miss a few games in 2013 as well. This was his 6th season and he was 27 years old.
Another significant running back age.
2020 Derrick Henry. 2,027 yards.
2021 Derrick Henry. ??? - through 17 games.
If you saw here Barry Sanders had the best follow up season with 1491.
Henry gets the benefit of an extra game but let's look at Henry's fantasy points in 2020.
2021 Derrick Henry. ??? - through 17 games.
If you saw here Barry Sanders had the best follow up season with 1491.
Henry gets the benefit of an extra game but let's look at Henry's fantasy points in 2020.
378 carries. 2,027 rushing yards. 5.4 avg. 17 TDs. 19 receptions. 114 receiving yards.
202.7 points from rush yards.
102 points from TDs
19 points from receptions
11.4 points from receiving yards.
202.7 points from rush yards.
102 points from TDs
19 points from receptions
11.4 points from receiving yards.
As you can see here if Derrick Henry has a lot less rushing yards. He will also have a lot less fantasy points.
It's up to you to decide how far he falls from 2,000 yards.
History suggests it's pretty far and he shouldn't be a top 3 PPR pick.
It's up to you to decide how far he falls from 2,000 yards.
History suggests it's pretty far and he shouldn't be a top 3 PPR pick.
Here are my projections for Henry for 2021
340 carries. 1,700 Yards. 15 TDs. 20 catches. 100 receiving yards. 0 Rec TDs. 4 Fumbles. 282 fantasy points
This thread is from an article I wrote projecting and ranking running backs
He isn't close to top 3
jakobsfantasyfootball.blogspot.com/2021/07/runnin…
340 carries. 1,700 Yards. 15 TDs. 20 catches. 100 receiving yards. 0 Rec TDs. 4 Fumbles. 282 fantasy points
This thread is from an article I wrote projecting and ranking running backs
He isn't close to top 3
jakobsfantasyfootball.blogspot.com/2021/07/runnin…
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