Thread by @JakesFFootball

When people say, this running back has receiving upside, and that one doesn't.

What does that mean to me?

A thread by @JakesFFootball

Tag your friends who use or hate the phrase receiving upside

#nfl #NFLTwitter #fantasyfootball #football #FantasyFootballAdvice

People say I'm low on Nick Chubb. I projected out his 2020 workload for 17 games and:

275 carries. 1,400 yards. 14 TDs. 25 catches. 200 receiving yards. 0 Rec TDs. 4 Fumbles. 261 fantasy points.

That seems good, however I can see a lot of other backs passing that up.

Here's what I think of DeAndre Swift, getting used like Alvin Kamara/Austin Ekeler:

200 carries. 1,000 rushing yards. 10 Rush TDs. 65 catches. 500 receiving yards. 4 receiving TDs. 4 Fumbles. 291 fantasy points.

30 more points than Chubb. More catches, and more receiving yards

Now one example isn't enough here let's see JK Dobbins

250 carries. 1,250 rush yards. 12 TDs. 20 catches. 150 yards. 2 Fumbles. 228 fantasy points.

228 points isn't terrible, but I bet there is a back who catches passes who has more potential for points.

How about Myles Gaskin. If he continued his workload for 17 games in 2021:

225 carries. 900 rushing yards. 6 Rush TDs. 70 catches. 550 receiving yards. 3 Rec TDs. 4 Fumbles. 261 fantasy points.

Those catches and receiving yards add up fast.

How about Damien Harris. Who I really like this year:

250 carries. 1,250 Rushing yards. 6 Rush TDs. 20 catches. 150 receiving yards. 3 Fumbles. 190 fantasy points.

Another guy who runs the ball often and isn't in the passing game much.

How about Nyheim Hines, a back who is almost exclusively a pass catcher.

100 carries. 400 rushing yards. 4 Rush TDs. 70 catches. 500 receiving yards. 5 Rec TDs. 1 Fumble. 212 fantasy points.

Man catches are a big deal in PPR.

To me the phrase 'receiving upside's means he's going to have more catches, more receiving yards, and more receiving touchdowns than a running back who barely catches the ball

As you can see it's more than just catches that matter. Also running backs usually have a much higher yards per catch than they do yards per rush. Another reason catches are more valuable.

A good back's 5 yard rush is worth .5 fantasy points.

A good back's 8 yard catch is worth 1.8 fantasy points.

Catches are typically worth more than triple the fantasy points in PPR

Projections and explanations from here:

jakobsfantasyfootball.blogspot.com/2021/07/runnin…