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14 Aug, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Next time @elonmusk agrees to a 100% pay for performance incentive plan where he needs to 10x market cap of company, folks ought to pay attention. Just saying.
@elonmusk Prior to the 2018 CEO compensation plan, Elon agreed to a 2012 CEO compensation that would reward him in tranches for taking TSLA from $3.2B in market cap to $43.2B in market cap. Another 10x.
The 2012 and 2018 CEO compensation plans laid out a clear 100x in market cap appreciation for $TSLA. Problem was not many people believed that these compensation plans were achievable. But it's clear @elonmusk thought they were acheivable or else he wouldn't have agreed to them.
The big question is after the final tranches of the 2018 CEO compensation plan are reached, will @elonmusk agree to a new stock compensation plan and will it include a new 10x market cap goal?

The 2012 and 2018 CEO compensations plans were a big part of my investment thesis for $TSLA. Knowing the CEO was working toward 10x'ing the value of the company within 5-10 years and with clear milestones and compensation was and has been priceless. Wish more would do this.
Let's say you had $100k in 2012. Stark difference between believing and scorning @elonmusk and his CEO compensation plans.

Believer puts $100k in TSLA in 2012 = $10m now

Scorner puts $100k into shorting TSLA in 2012 = now left with ~$10k, if that.

Want $10k or $10m? 🤣

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More from @heydave7

Dave Lee Profile picture
29 May
Tesla recently published some patent applications where we can learn some super interesting details about the Cybertruck, Cybertruck camping mode…. and most importantly, the Cybertrailer.

Here’s a thread…
The Cybertruck tonneau cover and tail gate can be opened with press of a button. Also, the tonneau cover will likely have solar panels. These solar panels would likely give 15 miles of range per day (according to @elonmusk on 11/22/19).
Patent application drawings show Cybertruck with 610 mile range. Obviously this is no guarantee, but nevertheless interesting. (Tri-motor Cybertruck is advertised with 500+ mile range on Tesla's website)
Read 6 tweets
Dave Lee Profile picture
1 May
We’re on the cusp of something big, really big - namely the emergence of AI-powered robots that will be able to do most of what humans do but better.

This is both exciting and concerning.

@elonmusk @tesla
Driving is a real-world Turing Test (credit: @lexfridman), and we’ll see AI+Robot (ie., Robotaxi) show the world it can drive better than humans.

But AI-powered robot cars is just the beginning of what might become the biggest technological revolution in history - the proliferation of physical AI robots that change our world as we know it.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Lee Profile picture
30 Apr
I had a great chat with @summerlinARK about how Tesla is using AI to solve for FSD and why Tesla’s data advantage can become competitive moat.

How Tesla is Using AI to Solve FSD w/ ARK Analyst Will Summerlin Part 1 (Ep. 329)

Autonomous driving is a tough nut to crack because there are so many edge cases and a company needs a tremendous amount of driving data under a wide range of condition to gather enough of those edge cases.

Those edge cases are very hard to acquire and are gold.
Having the best data means Tesla can have the best performing FSD system & that attracts more drivers who generate even more data which in turn improves the system even more.

Data advantages in the 2020s will likely determine which companies have the strongest competitive moats.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Lee Profile picture
5 Apr
1/ Tesla’s surprise Q1 report (185k vehicles delivered) removes much uncertainty many investors had, namely poor Q1 earnings could lead to a depressed stock price that could last multiple quarters.

This is a big opportunity for sentiment to turn positive.
2/ Tesla smashed expectations despite Q1 being seasonally weakest quarter and no refreshed S/X deliveries

Q2 will only get better with Shanghai continuing to ramp Model Y production and Tesla able to deliver refreshed S/X.
3/ Q1’s blowout deliveries also means that Tesla might post record Q1 earnings and profits.

As Tesla increases deliveries EVERY quarter this year, revenue & profit increase every quarter especially because revenue & gross profit will increase much faster than operating expenses.
Read 11 tweets
Dave Lee Profile picture
4 Apr
From March 2014:

"The continuously decreasing battery prices is the key advantage that could open up an opportunity for Tesla to sneak in with the Gen4 in 2022."

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ar…
"Gen4 will be the iPhone of the family & compact sedan market. This one will take longer since it might not be released until 2022 & it will take time for costs (ie., battery) to come down and production to ramp. So, by 2035-2040 I can see Tesla taking 50% sales of this market." https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-b
Funny to look back at these posts and find that @emmetpeppers who went by TSLAOpt on TMC see Tesla's potential back then.

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ar…
Read 4 tweets
Dave Lee Profile picture
6 Feb
I interviewed Bruce Norris from @thenorrisgroup who I’ve been following for 15 years and is one of the best in understanding real estate trends and prices in California and Florida.



Here’s why Bruce doesn’t think a real estate crash is coming any time soon.
First, lenders have generally been much more conservative in lending compared to the type of lending that led to the 2008-2011 housing crash. This means less likelihood of default.
Second, interest rates are at historic lows and are attracting new buyers wanting to lock in a fixed housing expense for 30 years.
Read 9 tweets

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