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14 Aug, 11 tweets, 4 min read
Texas, from January peaks to latest data:
- COVID hospitalizations down 19.9%
- COVID patients % of capacity down 22.9%
- COVID patients % of all patients down 27.7%
- COVID patients down 21.4%
- COVID ICU patients down 17.2%
- All ICU patients down 11.7%

dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/Co…
RSV, meanwhile, is way up in Texas:
"At Texas Children's Hospital in Houston on Thursday, 25 of 45 hospitalized pediatric patients were diagnosed with RSV as well as COVID-19."

That's 55.56% of them.

Since January peaks:
- Texas hospital capacity is down 5.9%
- Total staffed beds down 4.1%
- The total number of available beds is down 15.9%
- The total number of occupied hospital beds, for any reason, is up 1.1%
[Again, COVID-occupied beds: down 19.9%]
RSV is way up, all over, including places with 99% mask adherence:
The number of Texas pediatric COVID hospitalizations is not nearly as high as some people seem to wish it were:
Staffing is indeed a real problem, and not just anecdotally.

Relative to the previous low point of January, there were actually 39.9% fewer open Texas ICU beds available on August 13th.

dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/Co…
Visualized, there are fewer ICU beds available due to fewer available staff: coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitali…

8,167 total Texas ICU beds back in January.

Then the draw-down.

Now: 6,884 total ICU beds in Texas. ImageImageImage
Why might nurses be missing? Who knows. Could be any reason. Any reason at all.

abc13.com/houston-method…
The good news about all of these non-COVID hospitalizations: RSV in Texas has, perhaps, hopefully, maybe, possibly peaked (or, at least, is forming a peak):
The other good news: it's "completely normal for [hospitals] to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s [percent range]." They can and do scale up and down their beds with relative ease; laws require hospitals to be able to scale up rapidly. boriquagato.substack.com/p/hysterical-a…

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More from @WILLisms

Will Franklin Profile picture
16 Aug
Last year in the U.S. broadly and Texas more specifically, some schools were mask-optional. Other schools forced or coerced children to wear them for hours each day, every day, often even outside during exercise.

Forced-mask schools had higher infection rates than mask-optional. Image
In U.S. schools, staff in forced-mask schools had higher COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection rates than those in mask-optional schools. Image
In real-world data, rather than wish-casting, hunches, or theoretical models, forced-mask schools had higher infection rates for both students and staff. Image
Read 20 tweets
Will Franklin Profile picture
6 Aug
Remote "learning" in 2020-21 was an abject failure in Texas school districts: tea.texas.gov/sites/default/…
Divided into quartiles, the more school districts were remote rather than in-person in 2020-21, the worse they did on reading and math tests.
In every category of STAAR Test achievement (Masters, Meets, Approaches, or Did Not Meet Grade Level), in every subject, in every grade, the more remote school districts had worse learning loss than the more in-person school districts.
Read 18 tweets
Will Franklin Profile picture
21 Jul
Although there was only one lonely, single, solitary randomized controlled trial on masks in the COVID era (in Denmark), we do have U.S. data from last year.

Turns out, the COVID results were better in mask-optional than in forced-mask schools.
The student infection rate in mask-optional schools was lower than in forced-mask schools during the past school year.

Forced-mask schools had higher infection rates in 10 out of 14 two-week periods, more dramatic peaks, and a higher average infection rate. Data here: https://statsiq.co1.qualtrics.com/public-dashboar
The infection rate for staff in mask-optional schools was lower than in forced-mask schools during the past school year.

Forced-mask schools had higher infection rates in 11 out of 14 two-week periods, a 3x higher peak, and a much higher average infection rate. Data here: https://statsiq.co1.qualtrics.com/public-dashboar
Read 29 tweets
Will Franklin Profile picture
1 Jun
It has been 91 days since @GregAbbott_TX announced that Texas would reopen "100%" with no statewide mask mandate.

At the time, there was much weeping and gnashing of teeth about it. Many predictions of impending doom.

Turns out, Texas was fine.
Sure, it's the day after Memorial Day, so this will go up this week, but Texas reported 94 new "cases" today.

In the whole state.

That's the lowest since March 23.

Of 2020.

Today's 7-day average: lowest since April 7, 2020.

Back when testing hadn't really ramped up yet.
If you want to zoom out a bit, here's what the cases look like since the beginning of 2021.

I still see some arguing for continued masking and restrictions because we're "in the middle of a global pandemic!!!"

No. We aren't. It's over.

The case for been over for a while now.
Read 21 tweets
Will Franklin Profile picture
25 Apr
46 days ago, Texas opened "100%" with no statewide mask mandate, 8 days after @GregAbbott_TX announced the new policy.

Blue checkmarks predicted the apocalypse.

It's now undeniably been long enough to declare that the apocalypse did not arrive. Instead, everything is better.
Since March 10th, when Texas reopened 100% with no statewide mask mandate...
✅Cases: DOWN 25.4%
✅Hospitalizations: DOWN 39.1%
✅% of beds used by COVID patients: DOWN 36.6%
✅% of patients that are COVID+: DOWN 35.2%
✅COVID ICU: DOWN 38.8%
✅Deaths through April 11: DOWN 70.4%
Cases (7-day statewide average per day) are:

✅Down 25.4% since Texas reopened 100% without a statewide mask mandate.

✅Down 50.6% since @GovAbbott made his announcement.

✅Down 88.2% since the January peak.
Read 15 tweets
Will Franklin Profile picture
23 Apr
It's been another two-and-a-half weeks since we last checked in with the Texas COVID-19 numbers. So how's it going?
It has now been 52 days since @GovAbbott made his announcement that Texas would open on March 10th, "100%," without a statewide mask mandate.

It has been 44 days since Texas reopened 100% with no mask mandates.

The promised apocalypse has apparently been postponed yet again.
COVID-19 "cases," hospital patients, ICU patients, and deaths have all fallen in Texas in the 44 days since Texas opened 100% without a statewide mask mandate.

Data from @TexasDSHS: dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/Ad… The average number of daily...Fewer who test positive for...Fewer ICU patients who test...COVID-19 deaths are down in...
Read 15 tweets

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