Thread by @GrayConnolly

Ultimately, the Afghans have voted for this future, either by fighting with the Taliban or by not fighting against the Taliban. It is not our task to impose on the Afghans a future that they clearly did not want. We, sadly, wasted precious blood & treasure on a hopeless mission.

In Iraq, the situation in 2006-2007 was salvaged not just by highly kinetic operations against Al Qaeda in Iraq but by accepting the Iraqi Army we were building would secure Iraq only by bringing back Saddam-era officers who could get the job done, in a necessarily 'rugged' way.

In Iraq, we were building on the ruins of an Iraqi state that had some existence going back to the Arab Revolt & an a Soviet-trained Iraqi Army that fought a brutal war with Iran. In Afghanistan, there were no state institutions to build on - it is a frankly primitive place.

In either case, deploying an expeditionary army on either side of Iran was idiotic. But Iraq at least mattered. The Iran-Iraq border is the frontier agreed between the Persian Shahs (Iran) & Ottoman Sultans (Turkey) in the 1823+1847 Erzurum treaties - supervised by Russia's Tsar

The worst part of the last 20+ years was policy formulated for a very old part of the world by people who had NO idea of the history, cultures, geography, and grievances, of people who live starkly differently from your modern Westerner. They live there - we are passing through

Will add it is often foolishly said Afghanistan (2001) was lost because of Iraq focus (2002-2003). We all withdrew from Iraq (which matters strategically) by end 2011. The Afghan War still went on for another decade. Nothing improved. It was always a waste of lives & treasure.

Also, what prevented Iraq 2012 (post Allied withdrawal) from becoming Afghanistan 2021 was that Iran moved in & garrisoned Baghdad against ISIL. In other words, Iran's General Qasim Soleimani stopped Baghdad from falling to Sunni jihadis as Kabul falls now. Something to ponder

Anyway, here we all are, and hopefully this disaster will be a salient lesson on the need for realism, prudence, and the wise use of military force - what it can achieve, what it cannot solve, and why overwhelming kinetic force is always needed & not counter-insurgency fantasies.

The basic rule of all Warfare since Abram & his 318 kinsmen soldiers rescued his nephew Lot: “If you will the ends, you will the means.”