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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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15 Aug, 6 tweets, 4 min read
TPLF head Debretsion Gebremichael appears decidedly unwilling to seek a peaceful solution to this conflict. Here he is speaking to TMH (Tigray Media House) on August 7th. Immediately following the visit of @PowerUSAID to the region.
Briefing notes on this IV from Martin Plaut.

9th August Bulletin: martinplaut.com/2021/08/09/sit…
10th August Bulletin:

In this bulletin @MartinPlaut's entire briefing on Tigray is based on this August 7th IV. The newsletter is prepared for the EEPA - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_Ex… a Brussels based NGO.

martinplaut.com/2021/08/10/sit…
12th August Bulletin:

Focuses on the Amnesty report. But also contains more statements directly from TPLF. TMMA presumably is an umbrella for Tigray media activities including the primary propaganda outlet Tigray Media House (TMH) which broadcast the Debretsion IV
The unqualified nature of @MartinPlaut's - presumably funded, possibly by the EU - situation updates makes them for news intelligence purposes almost useless. And as we can see his translation of Debretsion's interview leaves something to be desired.
A full translation of this interview would be a very useful resource for media to refer to, notwithstanding that it is clearly propaganda.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
17 Sep
The framing of what the USG has done today as "imposing sanctions" is not really what it is. I far better framing to interpret this is as a "framework to achieve and end to the war in North Ethiopia".
As a great imperial power the USG, struggles to say this in as many words. But it is clear when you read between the lines that the U.S. is finally willing to engage with the Ethiopian Govt. in a sincere manner. That said there is still a lot of water to travel under the bridge,
The framing of this initiative is carrot and stick. The stick is of course the bit that Ethiopia should not accept.

But the carrot is significant. The President of the United States is offering to restore Ethiopia's to its rightful place as friend and ally of the US. Image
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
17 Sep
This letter is fantastic. And a great way to respond to the @JoeBiden peace Initiative. Very very Abiy in its construction, strong, and heartfelt. The final paragraph is crucial.
The U.S. initiative - I just spent a couple of hours getting into the weeds on it - is on one level disrespectful, and on another (more important level) clearly a practical response to try to end this war and crisis.
The final paragraph of @AbiyAhmedAli's letter reads:

"It is essential to point out here that Ethiopia will not succumb to consequences of pressure engineered by disgruntled individuals for whom consolidating power is more important than the well-being of millions.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
17 Sep
BREAKING NEWS: We have the US Sanctions announcement. Here reported by CNN. edition.cnn.com/2021/09/17/pol…
There are four statements on this issued by the White House. Here posted in the order they appear chronologically.

1. Executive Order >> whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
2. Statement by @POTUS @JoeBiden on the Executive Order. whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
17 Sep
So this #TPLFStrategyLeak appears to be a significant event. An 86 page document leaked, allegedly written/presented to TPLF leadership a couple of weeks before the Northern Command attack.

The document appears to have been leaked online. A full version is not yet available.
The second #TPLFStrategyLeak tweet, tweeted earlier contains a summary and description of the full document. And I now have a full translation of that.
The document is in Amharic, which raises questions about its authenticity. However, it's not quite that simple, as it also raises questions about any attempt to fake it. I would also note that faking an 86 page doc. would itself be extraordinary.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
16 Sep
The Ethiopian-Tigray Crisis-War has reached what looks like a turning point. The rumours, which are everywhere, that @POTUS @JoeBiden is about to sanction Ethiopia and Eritrea are clearly being telegraphed for a reason.
@POTUS @JoeBiden E.G. this is one of the most recent ones. And this one is weirdly specific. "18 Hours". sounds like there will be a press conference or something.
Apparently the announcement of the sanctions has been approved. On the day that @KarenBassTweets was due to depart for Ethiopia on CODEL (Congressional Delegation) visit. However this seems to have been postponed, now till 27th-29th September. Which is odd.
Read 24 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
16 Sep
Translation into English of Somalia President Farmaajo’s statement suspending Somalia PM Roble @MohamedHRoble (aka Rooble)’s powers. [ Translation by @Mohamud_M_A ] Image
Response from ousted PM Roble @MohamedHRoble Via VOA reporter @HarunMaruf.
And some speculation on possible immediate reasons for Roble’s removal by President Farmaajo @M_Farmaajo.
Read 4 tweets

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