Thread by @althecat

A deeper look at this "Conflict in Ethiopia" hearing where @AsstSecStateAF Robert F. Godec was the primary witness. Thread....

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1426856533988679682

In the meeting Godec was accompanied by @USAID offical Sarah F Charles, Assistant to the Administrator of USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance Bio: usaid.gov/who-we-are/org…

Acting Assistant Sec. Godec's testimony with a ref. to the previous day's "Unilateral Ceasefire". Absent this ceasefire it seems possible that the House Resolution would have passed, bolstering legitimacy of the Biden Admin's hostile approach towards the Govt. of Ethiopia.

Sarah F Charles opening testimony repeats the themes of Godec's opening remarks, massive famine (Godec said it was completely man made), human rights violations etc. All in graphic detail. She says 3.9 million people need food assistance.

Sarah Charles' (@spcharle on twitter) biography contains two interesting components.

1. "She also staffed the National Security Council (NSC) at ... first as the Director for Humanitarian Affairs and then as the Director and Acting Senior Director for Strategic Planning".

As she is not in the White House now, Charles tenure in the NSC was presumably during the Obama Admin when both @PowerUSAID was there from 2009, and which was led by @AmbRice46 after Powers became the UN UN Ambassador.

Before joining the NHC: "She led USAID’s post-Arab Spring efforts to strengthen democracy, promote space for democratic dialogue, support stabilization and encourage civic participation in the Middle East."

As noted in the previous thread, Robert F. Godec served as Tunisian Ambassador 2006-2009 in the lead up to the Arab Spring which broke out initially in Tunisia in December 2010.

Note: This is just and observation. We don't know whether in their previous roles under @BarackObama's admin they actually worked together, but both of these witnesses definitely have overlaps in areas of interest and placement within the US National Security apparatus.

@RepGregoryMeeks, opened the questions and his final questions related to Eritrea involvement and whether this was a a genocide. The entire tone of the meeting is one of a grave humanitarian crisis, with malign actors in place, namely Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Eritrea's relationship with the U.S. is very hostile - for those who do not know - probably best explained through the description "The Cuba of Africa".

Before the fall of the Russian supported Derg Ethiopian Regime in 1991 the TPLF and EPLF (Eritrean EPLF) fought together.

I do not know the history of U.S. Support for those fighting against the Derg, but it would be surprising that given that this war took place during the Cold War that the U.S. had relationships with both the EPLF and TPLF. Happy to be corrected if this is wrong.

In response to Rep Meek's questions @AsstSecStateAF Godec said that Eritrean forces were still in Tigray (as of June 29) and later that they had evidence that Eritrean forces had also been elsewhere in Ethiopia.

Former Cmtte. Chair NJ Republican Rep Chris Smith is still on the committe, he held 2013 hearings during @BarackObama admin into TPLF HR violations under the TPLF led EPRDF regime - but from what I know nothing was done as a result of these hearings.

@BarackObama Contextual Note (1/2): As detailed in previous threads (particularly the one attached), the relationship between the U.S. Govt and the TPLF is old and deep. In the HoA the TPLF led Govt. spearheaded counter-terrorism operations on behalf of the US Govt.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1426165128962187265

Note (2/2): As laid out in the backgrounder thread on @AsstSecStateAF Godec, in his roles in counter-terrorism (2009-2012) and Amb. Kenya (2006-2009) liaising with the TPLF's spy chief Assefa was almost certainly part of his area of responsibility.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1426850408752984067?s=20

Questions from @RepConnelly (Dem Nth. Virginia), also focused on Eritrean involvement.

Godec in response explains that Eritrea and TPLF are avowed enemies having fought a long war against each other, then mentions the peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea and @AbiyAhmedAli's Nobel Peace Prize.

"What would be the motivation of the [TPLF] forces to assent to your proposition [that TPLF should agree to the ceasefire.]"

"At the end of the day stability peace is what is essential to the country, and hopefully the TPLF will see that."

Connelly: "Is it in US interests for Ethiopia to remain as a whole? we don't want to see a breakaway province?"

Godec: "The answer is yes the US believes the territorial integrity and unity of Ethiopia is important and we will work towards that."

Next up @RepSteveChabot (GOP, Ohio) then raises a question on China and the threat they pose to the developing world by burdening nations with debt.

Q: "Could [China] have done something constructive here, but so far have not?"

A: "I'd say that's the case congressman."

@RepSteveChabot @RepSteveChabot's next question is on freedom of the press. Specifically in relation to atrocities. "Are you pushing for access for those journalists?"

@AsstSecStateAF, "there is pressure and harassment of journalists, we have frequently raised this and pressed for action."

@RepSteveChabot @AsstSecStateAF Next up is @RepTedDeutch (GOP, FL), chair of the Middle East, North Africa and Global Counterterrorism house subcommittee >> foreignaffairs.house.gov/middle-east-no…

The video of @RepTedDeutch is worth watching because of his role. Subcommittees of the HoR are responsible for "oversight" of policy implementation. He begins by stating support or the appointment of Jeffrey Feltman as Envoy, and then starts reading his notes.

Direct Video Link to his Q&A 5 minutes.

"I would ask our witnesses to pease go back to really help understand how really horrific this situation is for women and children.... I feel like only the shocking info. will cause the attention this needs.....

"I ask our witnesses.. what do we do now we have this moment of unilateral ceasefire, how do we make this an issue that everyone needs to rightly be concerned about given all the things we have seen take place there?"

This looks like a briefed question from Robert F. Godec to me:

@AsstSecStateAF: "We need to hold events like the one that occurred last week by the USAID Administrator (i.e. @PowerUSAID glances at Sarah Charles) ...

...We need to seize the UNSC with this issue."

And then Ms Charles who works for @PowerUSAID is given the floor.

Direct Video Link >>

"The scale of suffering is immense, risk of widespread famine for the first time since 1983-84.... if all parties respect that ceasefire we have a window of opportunity to avert the worst, but that requires action right now."

The next questioner is former soldier @RepScottPerry (GOP, PN) who also directs a question to @USAID's @spcharle. "If the stated goal is to starve these people out, what can we do to ensure the aid to gets.... I don't see a lot of upside for the Ethiopian Govt. to help on this..

@RepScottPerry @USAID @spcharle . @RepScottPerry is also worth watching because of his role, he's a Trump rep and says he has been in the military for three decades. He also has a role in oversight in foreign affairs like @RepTedDeutch.

@RepScottPerry @USAID @spcharle @RepTedDeutch And now we get to @RepKarenBass, Chair of the HOR Foreign Affairs, Africa, Global Health and Global Human Rights Subcommittee.

Direct link to her contribution here, which is >>

@RepScottPerry @USAID @spcharle @RepTedDeutch @RepKarenBass "The community of Ethiopians in my district in does not believe that the Govt. of Ethiopia is responsible for the attrocities.... they would really like to hear from you, if we don't have access, how do we know what is going on?" - @RepKarenBass to @AsstSecStateAF.

@RepScottPerry @USAID @spcharle @RepTedDeutch @RepKarenBass @AsstSecStateAF @AsstSecStateAF - "... the conflict broke out as a consequence of a long series of disagreements, conflicts, difficulties between the Govt and the Government in Tigray the TPLF. There were a number of mistakes on both sides that really pushed the conflict."

"... it is clear that the TPLF did launch the initial attack on ENDF Government bases, nevertheless the response by the government, everything that has happened since, the atrocities and all of the other things have been truly horrible. We have been in the process of... "

"... doing this fact based review, we have documented a number of atrocities by the government and by the ... "

@RepKarenBass interjection: "How have we documented them. How do we know?"

@RepKarenBass @AsstSecStateAF continues "... um, we review, um quite a bit of information which we receive through many different channels, and um, we verify that the information is accurate. We have a wide range of sources both public and not public... (looks down)..."

"...and we do look very carefully at what has happened. Obviously we look at the reports from HRW and there is no question but that the Govt. of Ethiopia, their forces, the Eritrean forces the Amhara forces and the TPLF (soto voce) as well, have committed human rights..."

".. violations, abuses and even atrocities. All parties to this have unquestionably committed violations."

@RepKarenBass - "And Miss Charles with regard to famine, how do we know this?"

@spcharle "Our humanitarian partners are there to provide services not investigate atrocities but they do have women presenting in mobile clinics as well as our partners across the border in Sudan are having women presenting having been raped, with organs damaged..."

@spcharle @spcharle - "..telling horrific stories about gang rape and sexual violence."
@RepKarenBass "By who?"
Charles -"By armed actors... we have reports of any number of armed actors, whether they be Eritrean forces, ENDF of Amharic Special Forces."

@RepKarenBass "And the famine? You said it was man made. So who caused it? And how do you know?"

@spcharle - "On the famine we have several different sources, to make famine determinations, survey work, children presenting malnourished.

@spcharle - In terms of who's responsible... The crisis started at a time of harvest which was interrupted. Subsequently we have seen the blocking of Tigrayans farming their lands, and the blocking of food assistance to Tigrayans.

Next questions from Darrell Issa (GOP,CA) concern Egypt.

Video Direct Link >>
@DarrellIssa -"Ethiopia is an ally, the other close and powerful ally with the United States in this region is Egypt."

@AsstSecStateAF - "Yes Egypt is an important ally."

@DarrellIssa - "So lets run through that, currently we have atrocities going on, both sides, currently Ethiopia receives around $1000 pa per capita in GDP, and Sudan less, it is an area of great poverty."

@DarrellIssa - "If the Dam is completed and Ethiopia chooses to fill it at the rate that they are threatening to, the impact would at a minimum would be devastating to at least one million people. Here's my point. We are looking at 500m in aid, starvation, all of this between...

@DarrellIssa - "... between two countries of 100 million people. If these countries go to war then this [Tigray] will pale in comparison.

@AsstSecStateAF - "War between these two countries would be caastrophic."

@DarrellIssa - "What is this Nobel Prize doing or his Govt. doing to avoid this devastation to two other countries?"

@AsstSecStateAF - "We are doing all we can to encourage an agreement. There is no need for these difficulties."

Next questions from: @RepCicilline
(D, RI)- questions about sexual violence/Eritrea/UNSC to @spcharle/@AsstSecStateAF

@AsstSecStateAF - "There should be an open UNSC discussion on this crisis. It is very unfortunate that there hasn't been one."

@RepKinzinger (GOP,RI) - Questions about atrocities and holding people accountable.
@repdinatitus (D,NV) - Russia & India & ethnic tensions.

A: @AsstSecStateAF (on ethnic issues) - Lets just say we continue to work at the problem, it is a challenge, Ethiopia has a way to go."

... several more Q&As

This Q&A with Rep: Dan Meuser about the ceasefire is interesting. Asks what would happen if TPLF laid down its weapons.

A: from @AsstSecStateAF Godec to this question.

"Our objective is a permanent ceasefire... to get the parties to the table... we are engaged to push them in that direction."

Or if ENDF laid down arms?

A: @AsstSecStateAF - "The ENDF has indicated they are in ceasefire mode, we do need to see from the other parties, the TPLF and Eritreans a commitment to a ceasefire.

NOTE: @AsstSecStateAF did not answer the first question.

This question from @RepDeanPhillips (D, MN) addresses the issue of TPLF and OLF being designated as Terrorist organisations by Ethiopia.

@AsstSecStateAF - "We don't share the view that the groups should be designated as terrorists, it was problematic. We urge the Ethiopian Govt to talk to all actors.

On the June Election: "We do not believe it was free or fair."

@AsstSecStateAF In his second question @RepDeanPhillips raises the assassination of Hachalu Hundessa pointing to his efforts to secure a transparent investigation into his murder and asking about detentions of politicians.
@AsstSecStateAF - "We have engaged with the Govt on some detentions."

@AsstSecStateAF @RepDeanPhillips From a bit later. @JoaquinCastrotx asks @AsstSecStateAF how many ENDF prisoners the TPLF are holding. Clearly he knows what has happened. Sec Godec not only does not answer but declines to confirm that there are any prisoners.

@AsstSecStateAF @RepDeanPhillips @JoaquinCastrotx Earlier @AsstSecStateAF Godec told the committee that there had been fighting for a couple of weeks (which is longer than has been reported by a week). If he knows this then he would have to know that there are ENDF prisoners.

@AsstSecStateAF @RepDeanPhillips @JoaquinCastrotx Clearly it was a sensitive question. The answer is not altogether odd, as he may have wanted not to be the one breaking the news, but he looks rattled by the question.

And he lies. "At the moment I do not have confirmation about that."

It is inconceivable that he doesn't know that TPLF has, or likely has prisoners.

Next q. from Rep Levin @RepAndyLevin is also difficult for @AsstSecStateAF on white phosphorus. Godec also presumably knows that TPLF may have used white phosporous in the past, and that this could be disinformation.

@RepAndyLevin @AsstSecStateAF He's in a very defensive body position. He says its hard to confirm the report as he doesn't have access.

Again the video is worth watching. Why is @AsstSecStateAF Godec feeling so uncomfortable? He looks much more comfortable talking about China to Rep Ronny Jackson (TX) @RepRonnyJackson

@AsstSecStateAF @RepRonnyJackson The next question is from @Ilhan @IlhanMN and is important simply because it is from her.

.@Ilhan asks about the legal determination regarding whether there are crimes against humanity, genocide. @AsstSecStateAF says the investigation is advanced and that @SecBlinken is dealing with it.

@Ilhan @AsstSecStateAF @SecBlinken Rep Omar goes on to ask about Somali troops reported being in Tigray and also about concerning reports Oromia.

"As someone born and raised in the horn, I hope that there is a pathway forward for peace." - @Ilhan

To end @RepGregoryMeeks' closing address. Everything he says is right. The problem is U.S. policy has unfathomably decided to back the party that is causing all the harm, the TPLF, not their victims, the people of Ethiopia including those of Tigray.

@RepGregoryMeeks /ENDS

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