Thread by @AllenAu11

I've developed 4 #BTC indicators using @glassnode's workbench for detecting:

1. Buy & sell signals
2. Bear phase bottom
3. Top before final lift off + Timing of blow-off top
4. Best BTC accumulation periods

Also, I've rebuilt Willy Woo's Top Cap model for finding BTC's peak.

1a. Buy & Sell Signals

This indicator is developed from #BTC's moving average price. It gives accurate buy & sell signals of BTC.

It's simple to use: Whenever BTC's price is above the orange trend line, buy. Otherwise, sell.

It's now a good time to buy #Bitcoin!

1b. To simplify things further, I have made an oscillator for this Buy & Sell Signals indicator.

Note that when this oscillator > 2, #BTC is near an interim top or cycle top.

Oscillator >= 1 ➡️ Buy
Oscillator < 1➡️ Sell
Oscillator >2 ➡️ Near interim or cycle top

2a. Bear Market Bottom

This indicator is developed using #BTC's moving average price. It catches all the bear phase bottoms of past cycles.

The bottom occurs when #BTC's price crosses the red trend line & rebounds.

This indicator also catches the COVID bottom in March 2020.

2b. Note that in the last cycle's bear market, #BTC's price temporary pierced through the red trend line & rebounded. It did that again to reach its final bear phase bottom. If we count the first cross & rebound as the detected bear market bottom, this indicator is off by 5%.

3a. Interim top before final lift off + Timing of blow-off top

This indicator is developed using #BTC's 2-year moving average price. It detects the interim top before the final lift off (blow-off phase) & when the blow-off top phase begins.

How to use?

3b. When #BTC's price touches the turquoise trend line, that price is the interim top before the final lift off.

When BTC's price finally crosses above the turquoise trend line, the blow-off top phase begins.

This indicator detected the above in the past 2 cycles.

4a. Best #BTC accumulation periods

This indicator is developed using BTC's 2-year moving average price.

If one's a HODLer, every day is a good day to DCA into BTC. This indicator points to the periods when BTC is undervalued, upon which one can accumulate relatively more sats.

4b. Whenever #BTC is below the green trend line, it's a good time to accumulate more BTC, but start doing so after BTC has hit its bear phase bottom.

The chart marks the accumulation periods in yellow boxes in the past 2 cycles.

5a. I have rebuilt Willy Woo's Top Cap Model, which is based on the Average Cap of #BTC x 35. I've made a slight adjustment to this rebuild based on past cycle peak data.

#BTC will reach its cycle peak when its price touches the purple trend line.

h/t @woonomic

5b. Per Willy's model & other on-chain indicators I have shown before, #BTC hasn't reached its cycle peak.

Using this model, we can estimate the top price of BTC which currently stands at $172K.

Given the trajectory of the purple trend line, we'd project the BTC's peak price.

All the #BTC indicators above will be posted as needed on the weekly #CTM on-chain metric dashboards.

Note these indicators are additional tools at your disposal to guide your investment decisions, but DYOR.