As we watch developments in Afghanistan and as the blame game continues in U.S. domestic politics, this might be a good time to revisit @DerekSReveron's important paradigm for understanding national security policy: the die-kill-pay (ignore) paradigm. 1/
@DerekSReveron Revisiting @LauraWalkerKC's observation here: this is the crux of the matter. The Afghan mission was one where the public has signaled they no longer want Americans to kill or be killed, so it raises the question now: what tools to prevent ... 2/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC other bad outcomes. For instance, this--the "first female mayor" "waiting for the Taliban to come ... kill me." What options are available? 3/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC The U.S. was moving to a pay strategy--essentially hoping that the Afghan security forces would take up this role. That option seems to have been foreclosed. Do we "pay" private military contractors instead? Do we find a way to "pay" the Taliban not to do to such things? 4/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC What about the private sector? Over the last twenty years, capabilities once only in the hands of states have moved into the corporate world. A private humanitarian force? Would a philanthropist like @mackenziescott or @melindagates be willing to fund a rapid-reaction ... 5/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates force that would be able to protect vulnerable populations? Bankroll private relief flights to prevent what @Reuters reports from the Kabul airport? 6/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters But we also have to accept that there is an "ignore" option as well. And will what happens in Afghanistan in 2021 impact how U.S. voters make decisions in 2022/2024? @carnegiecouncil polling suggests a very mixed approach. From 2020: "91 percent said that the foreign policy ..7/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil stances of presidential and Congressional candidates were important to them, but on the question of whether a respondent would vote for a candidate whose domestic agenda they supported but with whose foreign policy they disagreed, the picture was far less clear ... 8/
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil roughly 1/3 said disagreements on foreign policy would prevent them from casting a favorable vote, 1/3 said they would still support on the basis of the domestic agenda, and 1/3 were unsure." 9/ carnegiecouncil.org/publications/a…
@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil But, as @RadioFreeTom quotes @Cfr's Stephen Biddle in @TheAtlantic: "You would need an electron microscope to detect the effect of Afghanistan on any congressional race in the last decade. It’s been invisible.” /10 theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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More from @DoorstepPodcast

7 Sep
At the beginning of 2019, @RadioFreeTom and @ianbremmer met at the @carnegiecouncil to discuss globalization and populism. Recent @Ipsos and @wef polls bear revisiting their conclusions. 1/ carnegiecouncil.org/studio/multime…
@RadioFreeTom @ianbremmer @carnegiecouncil @Ipsos @wef The findings suggest "a mix of polarization and ambivalence among the public throughout the world about free trade, globalization, and protectionist policies." 2/ ipsos.com/en/sentiment-a…
@RadioFreeTom @ianbremmer @carnegiecouncil @Ipsos @wef Policymakers may find it difficult to reconcile findings where majorities say "expanding trade is a good thing" and that "there should be more trade barriers." 3/
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4 Sep
Important piece from @profmusgrave ... suggests that the climate change narrative we identified at the @carnegiecouncil may not have as much motivating power in domestic politics ... 1/
@profmusgrave @carnegiecouncil We've seen this in the discussion in recent days with @reziemba, @CarolynKissane and @v_madalina about how short-term doorstep considerations, especially pocketbook concerns about energy prices, can trump longer-term climate policy. 2/
@profmusgrave @carnegiecouncil @reziemba @CarolynKissane @v_madalina In the comments on @profmusgrave piece via @CT_Bergstrom, @gavinashun wonders about the political attractiveness of geo-engineering solutions, something @C2G2net is looking at ... 3/
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18 Aug
This @Reuters report from @Cmkahn detailing @Ipsos polling demonstrates the contradictory impulses on the part of U.S. voters, both in policy and ethical terms. 1/ reuters.com/world/us/biden…
@Reuters @Cmkahn @Ipsos "For example, a majority of the 18-to-65-year-olds who took the Ipsos survey - 68% - agreed that the war “was going to end badly, no matter when the U.S. left,” and 61% wanted the United States to complete its withdrawal of troops on schedule." 2/
@Reuters @Cmkahn @Ipsos "Yet a smaller majority - 51% - also agreed that “it would have been worth it for the United States to leave troops in Afghanistan another year,” and 50% wanted to send troops back into the country to fight the Taliban." 3/
Read 9 tweets
18 Aug
Continuing the conversation started at @RadioFreeTom and with the contributions by @JonNeeter and @bren1008, we are fundamentally grappling with the question of narratives: why do we do what we do in the world? 1/
@RadioFreeTom @JonNeeter @bren1008 This is what the @carnegiecouncil U.S. global engagement project has been trying to do since 2018 ... what are the frameworks we are using to situate our role? 2/ carnegiecouncil.org/publications/a…
@RadioFreeTom @JonNeeter @bren1008 @carnegiecouncil The Afghan disaster is putting into stark relief that we may be moving away from some of the post-9/11 assumptions and statements: 1) that in order to prevent "global terrorism" from finding homes, the United States needs to strengthen all states around the world. 3/
Read 11 tweets
17 Aug
That the Taliban feel the need to state they will guarantee women's rights (albeit "under the limits of Islam") in 2021--a statement they never felt compelled to make in 1996--suggests that they are aware that the situation today is different. 1/
Statements don't mean much unless backed by deeds, and if actions contradict the statements, then we know how much they are worth. Also of interest is an apparent recognition of the concept of sovereignty--that other states and countries live under their own laws. ... 2/
A major issue with the 1990s Taliban was their eagerness and willingness to export their revolution to neighboring states. Again, statements have to be backed up by action. 3/
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec 20
As we close out the year, an observation from co-host Nick Gvosdev ... as I grade exams of my senior students at the @NavalWarCollege and in particular questions that deal with the "liberal international order", it reinforces the importance, per yesterday's tweet, of ... 1/
politicians and thought leaders making the case for engagement. 2/
I still don't hear U.S. figures explicitly linking the low rates for home mortgages and low interest rates for car notes, among other things, to the position of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency--in other words, taking it right to the doorstep. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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