Thread by @DoorstepPodcast

As we watch developments in Afghanistan and as the blame game continues in U.S. domestic politics, this might be a good time to revisit @DerekSReveron's important paradigm for understanding national security policy: the die-kill-pay (ignore) paradigm. 1/

@DerekSReveron Revisiting @LauraWalkerKC's observation here: this is the crux of the matter. The Afghan mission was one where the public has signaled they no longer want Americans to kill or be killed, so it raises the question now: what tools to prevent ... 2/

https://twitter.com/LauraWalkerKC/status/1427087333451571201

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC other bad outcomes. For instance, this--the "first female mayor" "waiting for the Taliban to come ... kill me." What options are available? 3/

https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1427219218253164547

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC The U.S. was moving to a pay strategy--essentially hoping that the Afghan security forces would take up this role. That option seems to have been foreclosed. Do we "pay" private military contractors instead? Do we find a way to "pay" the Taliban not to do to such things? 4/

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC What about the private sector? Over the last twenty years, capabilities once only in the hands of states have moved into the corporate world. A private humanitarian force? Would a philanthropist like @mackenziescott or @melindagates be willing to fund a rapid-reaction ... 5/

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates force that would be able to protect vulnerable populations? Bankroll private relief flights to prevent what @Reuters reports from the Kabul airport? 6/

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1427174580616142849

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters But we also have to accept that there is an "ignore" option as well. And will what happens in Afghanistan in 2021 impact how U.S. voters make decisions in 2022/2024? @carnegiecouncil polling suggests a very mixed approach. From 2020: "91 percent said that the foreign policy ..7/

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil stances of presidential and Congressional candidates were important to them, but on the question of whether a respondent would vote for a candidate whose domestic agenda they supported but with whose foreign policy they disagreed, the picture was far less clear ... 8/

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil roughly 1/3 said disagreements on foreign policy would prevent them from casting a favorable vote, 1/3 said they would still support on the basis of the domestic agenda, and 1/3 were unsure." 9/ carnegiecouncil.org/publications/a…

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil But, as @RadioFreeTom quotes @Cfr's Stephen Biddle in @TheAtlantic: "You would need an electron microscope to detect the effect of Afghanistan on any congressional race in the last decade. It’s been invisible.” /10 theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

@DerekSReveron @LauraWalkerKC @mackenziescott @melindagates @Reuters @carnegiecouncil @RadioFreeTom @Cfr @TheAtlantic Ending with the query posed by @nahaltoosi: this is the problem set now--and what will we choose to do? END

https://twitter.com/nahaltoosi/status/1426891889232461833