@Reuters@Cmkahn@Ipsos "For example, a majority of the 18-to-65-year-olds who took the Ipsos survey - 68% - agreed that the war “was going to end badly, no matter when the U.S. left,” and 61% wanted the United States to complete its withdrawal of troops on schedule." 2/
@Reuters@Cmkahn@Ipsos "Yet a smaller majority - 51% - also agreed that “it would have been worth it for the United States to leave troops in Afghanistan another year,” and 50% wanted to send troops back into the country to fight the Taliban." 3/
@Reuters@Cmkahn@Ipsos Leave on schedule but then go back to fight to Taliban is, to put it mildly, a contradiction. But this reflects competing ethical considerations: a desire to help, concerns about the fates of Afghans, particularly women and those who worked with the West, but also ... 4/
@Reuters@Cmkahn@Ipsos concerns about the efficacy of U.S. action, the inability to achieve results ... but as a signal from the doorstep, it would be impossible to come up with a coherent policy that would satisfy all of these considerations. 5/
@Reuters@Cmkahn@Ipsos Since the @carnegiecouncil is concerned with ethics in international affairs, which ethical standards governs action? Ethics of likely results, ethics of good intentions? Bringing in @JoeNye's three dimensional test for making such assessments ... 6/
@RadioFreeTom@ianbremmer@carnegiecouncil@Ipsos@wef Policymakers may find it difficult to reconcile findings where majorities say "expanding trade is a good thing" and that "there should be more trade barriers." 3/
Important piece from @profmusgrave ... suggests that the climate change narrative we identified at the @carnegiecouncil may not have as much motivating power in domestic politics ... 1/
@profmusgrave@carnegiecouncil We've seen this in the discussion in recent days with @reziemba, @CarolynKissane and @v_madalina about how short-term doorstep considerations, especially pocketbook concerns about energy prices, can trump longer-term climate policy. 2/
Continuing the conversation started at @RadioFreeTom and with the contributions by @JonNeeter and @bren1008, we are fundamentally grappling with the question of narratives: why do we do what we do in the world? 1/
@RadioFreeTom@JonNeeter@bren1008@carnegiecouncil The Afghan disaster is putting into stark relief that we may be moving away from some of the post-9/11 assumptions and statements: 1) that in order to prevent "global terrorism" from finding homes, the United States needs to strengthen all states around the world. 3/
That the Taliban feel the need to state they will guarantee women's rights (albeit "under the limits of Islam") in 2021--a statement they never felt compelled to make in 1996--suggests that they are aware that the situation today is different. 1/
Statements don't mean much unless backed by deeds, and if actions contradict the statements, then we know how much they are worth. Also of interest is an apparent recognition of the concept of sovereignty--that other states and countries live under their own laws. ... 2/
A major issue with the 1990s Taliban was their eagerness and willingness to export their revolution to neighboring states. Again, statements have to be backed up by action. 3/
As we watch developments in Afghanistan and as the blame game continues in U.S. domestic politics, this might be a good time to revisit @DerekSReveron's important paradigm for understanding national security policy: the die-kill-pay (ignore) paradigm. 1/
@DerekSReveron Revisiting @LauraWalkerKC's observation here: this is the crux of the matter. The Afghan mission was one where the public has signaled they no longer want Americans to kill or be killed, so it raises the question now: what tools to prevent ... 2/
@DerekSReveron@LauraWalkerKC other bad outcomes. For instance, this--the "first female mayor" "waiting for the Taliban to come ... kill me." What options are available? 3/
As we close out the year, an observation from co-host Nick Gvosdev ... as I grade exams of my senior students at the @NavalWarCollege and in particular questions that deal with the "liberal international order", it reinforces the importance, per yesterday's tweet, of ... 1/
politicians and thought leaders making the case for engagement. 2/
I still don't hear U.S. figures explicitly linking the low rates for home mortgages and low interest rates for car notes, among other things, to the position of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency--in other words, taking it right to the doorstep. 3/