How deadly is Covid?
John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates 2.4% IFR in community dwelling elderly, age >70
Estimate is 5.5% among elderly overall, which means nursing home residents had much higher death rates
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates 2.4% IFR in community dwelling elderly, age >70
Estimate is 5.5% among elderly overall, which means nursing home residents had much higher death rates
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Ioannidis estimates an infection fatality rate of 0.05% among those under 70.
But that's *everyone* under 70, including those with comorbidities.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
But that's *everyone* under 70, including those with comorbidities.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
We know (according to the CDC) that 95% of those who died from Covid had at least one underlying health condition, such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes
https://twitter.com/Mangan150/status/1416745617791938563?s=20
So it appears that if you're under 70 and have none of these conditions, i.e. you're reasonably healthy, risk of death from Covid is quite low
.05% x (1-.95) = .0025%, or 1 in 40,000
Even if not completely healthy, it's still 1 in 2000
And you have to get it in the first place
.05% x (1-.95) = .0025%, or 1 in 40,000
Even if not completely healthy, it's still 1 in 2000
And you have to get it in the first place
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