@CT_Bergstrom I agree Carl.
I will write a blog post on this but one possibility is that this is a combination of
1. unmeasured confounders (eg that young people vaccinated in January are Health care workers who are tested and exposed much more than those later vaccinated young people)
I will write a blog post on this but one possibility is that this is a combination of
1. unmeasured confounders (eg that young people vaccinated in January are Health care workers who are tested and exposed much more than those later vaccinated young people)
@CT_Bergstrom 2. Delta effect. Since we know delta spreads faster & with 50-100x viral load, it makes sense this higher viral exposure could lead to detectable virus that would produce “asymptomatic breakthrough infections” if testing done at right time, even if the vaccine works as intended
@CT_Bergstrom 3. And based on data I’ve seen showing memory B cells and helper T cells remain maxed out at 6m (and can produce new nAbs in 2-3 days)and nAbs and killer T cells decrease 10x but still remain 10-100x prevaccine baseline, it is possible that in early months the circulating nAbs..
@CT_Bergstrom Yielding fast neutralizing of virus before it is detectable, but later it takes 2-3 days for memory B cells to make NAbs which w/ fast replicating variant like delta might enable it enough time to get to PcR detectable levels thus producing “asymptomatic breakthrough infections”
@CT_Bergstrom Thus it is plausible that all third boosters would do is give a spurt of circulating NAbs enabling neutralization to happen 2-3 days sooner, whose only benefit might be prevention of asymptomatic breakthrough infections
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