dbRaevn Profile picture
19 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
🧵NSW Outbreak national impact
As at 19th August 2021

The outbreak in NSW has caused local cases in every state and territory except NT, and caused lockdowns in all but QLD and TAS. It has also caused an outbreak in NZ.

This thread outlines the scope of the impact🔽

There have been a total of 10,602 cases nationally linked to the outbreak.
- This is 98% of local cases in Australia in that time
- 77% of local cases outside NSW.
- A further 21 cases have been detected in New Zealand

There are 61 related deaths to this outbreak.

7 lockdowns have resulted from clusters linked to this outbreak in Australia and NZ.
- Australians have spent an average of 18.9 days (30% of time) under lockdown during this time as a result.
Only lockdowns related to the NSW outbreak are included in the above.

The graph is based on person-days under lockdown in the affected areas, as well as separating Metro and Regional populations where lockdown timeframes differed.

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More from @dbRaevn

27 Aug
🧵VIC - Outbreak progression

It can be easy to treat the current outbreak in VIC as a single cluster, and compare it to how we expect others to progress. A simple chart like this tells a concerning story of growth:

This thread shows why this outbreak is different 🔽
Transmission is driven by "wild" cases - cases found that were out in the community during some or all of their infectious period. So let's take a look at case isolation status over the outbreak.

It looked like it was going well until the 20th August - what happened?
The answer - new clusters were found (MyCenter child care and Shepparton). And just like at the beginning of the outbreak, there was an initial large jump in cases, and new related cases were not isolating. The Wyndham cluster was also later found.
Read 7 tweets
27 Aug
🔗VIC dataset review - linked and unlinked
27th August 2021

- 11 prior cases linked
- 8 UI cases moved to unknown source
- 16 new under investigation cases
- 1 case removed from dataset

44 - "Under investigation" (🔻3)
17 - "Unknown source" (🔺8)
11 Linked cases:
🔗Manningham, 19th
🔗Maribyrnong, 21st
🔗Melbourne, 21st
🔗Boroondara, 22nd
🔗Greater Geelong, 22nd
🔗Melbourne, 23rd
🔗Whittlesea, 23rd
🔗Hobsons Bay, 24th
🔗Hume, 24th
🔗Hume, 25th
🔗Wyndham, 25th
8 under investigation case moved to unknown source:
🔴Moonee Valley, 18th
🔴Unknown LGA, 19th
🔴Wyndham, 19th
🔴Greater Dandenong, 20th
🔴Hobsons Bay, 20th
🔴Melbourne, 20th
🔴Melton, 20th
🔴Greater Shepparton, 21st
Read 5 tweets
27 Aug
📊VIC - Active clusters
27th August 2021

New cases: 79
Recoveries: 19
Total active cases: 660🔺60
Total active clusters: 55🔻1

Cluster status:
🟢Cases recovering
🔵No change
🟠Cases increasing

Clusters with <5 cases are grouped into "All Other"
7 new clusters:
🟠Woolworths Millers Junction Altona North (7)
🟠Borgcraft Pty Ltd Altona (2)
🟠Electrical Service Williamstown North (2)
🟠3048 Wharparilla Lodge Echuca Tier 1B (1)
🟠Greater Shepparton Secondary College Mooroopna Campus (1)
New clusters (cont):
🟠Monash Medical Centre Emergency Department Clayton Clinic Waiting Room (1)
🟠Western Health Footscray Hospital Emergency Department Tier 1B (1)
Read 5 tweets
26 Aug
🔗VIC dataset review - linked and unlinked
26th August 2021

• 12 prior cases linked *
• 1 under investigation case moved to unknown source
• 13 new under investigation cases

47 - "Under investigation" (🔺1)
9 - "Unknown source" (➖)
Linked cases:

10th August:
- Melton^

18th August:
- Moreland

21st August:
- Boroondara
- Greater Shepparton (2)
- Hobsons Bay
- Hume
- Port Phillip

22nd August:
- Melbourne
- Wyndham

23rd August:
- Melbourne*
- Monash

* Also removed from dataset
^ Unknown source
Under investigation case moved to unknown source:
- Cardinia (19th)

13 new under investigation cases, in the following LGAs:
- Brimbank
- Hume (2)
- Maribyrnong
- Maroondah (2)
- Melton
- Port Phillip
- Wyndham (4)
- Yarra
Read 4 tweets
25 Aug
🔗VIC dataset review - linked and unlinked
25th August 2021

• 10 prior under investigation cases linked *
• 0 under investigation cases moved to unknown source
• 9 new under investigation

46 - "Under investigation" (🔻1)
9 - "Unknown source" (➖)
Linked prior under investigation cases:

20th August:
- Greater Shepparton

22nd August:
- Greater Shepparton
- Wyndham (2)

23rd August:
- Greater Shepparton (3)
- Mansfield
- Moreland *
- Unknown LGA *

* These cases also removed from the dataset
9 new under investigation cases, in the following LGAs:
- Hobsons Bay (2)
- Hume
- Maribyrnong
- Melton
- Monash (2)
- Moonee Valley
- Moreland
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug
Coolaroo, Maribyrnong Clusters (Final)
13th July - 5th August 2021
✳Age breakdown of cases in these clusters:

- Includes overseas acquired cases during this time period
✳Case onwards transmission

- Excludes 6 cases where the link is unknown
Read 5 tweets

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