It can be easy to treat the current outbreak in VIC as a single cluster, and compare it to how we expect others to progress. A simple chart like this tells a concerning story of growth:
This thread shows why this outbreak is different 🔽
Transmission is driven by "wild" cases - cases found that were out in the community during some or all of their infectious period. So let's take a look at case isolation status over the outbreak.
It looked like it was going well until the 20th August - what happened?
The answer - new clusters were found (MyCenter child care and Shepparton). And just like at the beginning of the outbreak, there was an initial large jump in cases, and new related cases were not isolating. The Wyndham cluster was also later found.
So rather than view this outbreak as a single cluster, it can make more sense if we break it down into the main clusters, as they are fairly independent:
We can now see several things:
- As the new clusters emerge, isolating cases drop significantly initially
- The original cluster is largely reducing
- Only 1 significant cluster appears to be rapidly growing - the Wyndham cluster, which Jeroen raised today as the main concern.
- Other clusters have remained relatively steady, but combined they give the appearance of significant growth.
Note: Unlinked cases will tend to be higher on the most recent days, as they've had the least chance to be linked. This doesn't automatically imply they are growing
Does this mean Victoria has turned a corner? Not quite, and the outcome is still not clear. But there's much more reason to be optimistic when looking into the detail then when just looking at the high level view, and it explains why the progression may not be as expected so far.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
8 under investigation case moved to unknown source:
🔴Moonee Valley, 18th
🔴Unknown LGA, 19th
🔴Wyndham, 19th
🔴Greater Dandenong, 20th
🔴Hobsons Bay, 20th
🔴Melbourne, 20th
🔴Melton, 20th
🔴Greater Shepparton, 21st
Clusters with <5 cases are grouped into "All Other"
7 new clusters:
🟠Woolworths Millers Junction Altona North (7)
🟠Borgcraft Pty Ltd Altona (2)
🟠Electrical Service Williamstown North (2)
🟠3048 Wharparilla Lodge Echuca Tier 1B (1)
🟠Greater Shepparton Secondary College Mooroopna Campus (1)
New clusters (cont):
🟠Monash Medical Centre Emergency Department Clayton Clinic Waiting Room (1)
🟠Western Health Footscray Hospital Emergency Department Tier 1B (1)
21st August:
- Boroondara
- Greater Shepparton (2)
- Hobsons Bay
- Hume
- Port Phillip
22nd August:
- Melbourne
- Wyndham
23rd August:
- Melbourne*
- Monash
* Also removed from dataset
^ Unknown source
Under investigation case moved to unknown source:
- Cardinia (19th)
13 new under investigation cases, in the following LGAs:
- Brimbank
- Hume (2)
- Maribyrnong
- Maroondah (2)
- Melton
- Port Phillip
- Wyndham (4)
- Yarra
🧵NSW Outbreak national impact
As at 19th August 2021 #COVID19Aus
The outbreak in NSW has caused local cases in every state and territory except NT, and caused lockdowns in all but QLD and TAS. It has also caused an outbreak in NZ.
This thread outlines the scope of the impact🔽
✳Cases
There have been a total of 10,602 cases nationally linked to the outbreak.
- This is 98% of local cases in Australia in that time
- 77% of local cases outside NSW.
- A further 21 cases have been detected in New Zealand
There are 61 related deaths to this outbreak.
✳Lockdowns
7 lockdowns have resulted from clusters linked to this outbreak in Australia and NZ.
- Australians have spent an average of 18.9 days (30% of time) under lockdown during this time as a result.