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19 Aug, 5 tweets, 2 min read
"China shouldn't rush to invest in Afghanistan" - The Secretary-General of the China and South Asia Cooperation Research Center at the prestigious Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), Liu Zongyi, discusses the ramifications of a Taliban takeover to China.
1/5
Liu's top concern is that the Taliban regards "terrorists like the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" [Uyghur separatist terror organization that doesn't exist according to the US] as their brothers of faith, and it has the obligation to protect and shelter them".
2/
Therefore, "they may not allow the ETIM to engage in anti-China activities on Afghan soil, but I'm afraid that handing over ETIM members to China would be difficult."
3/
"The underlying issue is that it's still difficult to predict what kind of ideology Afghanistan will embrace in the future. Although the Taliban is now exhibiting a significant shift in domestic & diplomatic affairs, I don't believe its basic ideology has changed significantly./4
"The current posturing could be a tactical ploy, and the fundamentalist Islamic ideology that they pursued may not have changed much."
5/5
 Link: guancha.cn/liuzongyi/2021…

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Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture
26 Aug
"Although China studies articles and books are becoming larger than ever before in terms of quantity, China studies in the West has lost its academic relevance and is on the verge of death" - The obituary for "Western China studies" by political scientist Zheng Yongnian
🪡
1/n Image
Zheng's essay should be read under the context of the CCP's "historical statecraft" (h/t @mayer_iras). Chinese nationalists have built a narrative of a "Chinese civilization-state" with the world's longest unbroken history of 5000 years, to contrast with... Image
...other civilizational constructs (mostly Western "civilization"), in order to convey a sense of Chinese superiority in morality and institutions.
Read 19 tweets
Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture
20 Aug
Mei Xinyu, a well-known economist and senior expert on international trade at China's Ministry of Commerce, has a more quantitative analysis of Chinese investments in Afghanistan, along with similar policy recommendations as Liu Zongyi's.
Excerpts:
1/3
"Our country should not interfere in Afghanistan's internal affairs and should respect the Afghan people's choice, but we also need to be calm and objective about Afghanistan's economy and trade in the post-US era, and not go into a blind frenzy.
2/3
"We can actively and steadily supply the Afghan market with consumer goods for everyday livelihood in the short term, provided payment and security are guaranteed, but fixed-asset investment projects, particularly large-scale investments, must proceed slowly".3/3
Read 4 tweets
Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture
12 Aug
Chinese influencer Lu Kewen: "Jews, you who rule the American Empire and control its finance and media, as well as the dwarf Japanese pirates of the small islands, you have no idea how far we, each and every one of us in the Chinese nation, are willing to go for...
1/
"the revival of this country, and how much humiliation we have endured in silence all these years so that we can return to our ancestors' days of glory" - Lu's article, published on Aug 9, discusses US Secretary of State Blinken's, "the Jew," "grand strategy to encircle China"./2
Lu is a contentious yet extremely popular influencer and founder of Lu Kewen Studio media company. This isn't the first time this zealous jingoist bigot has shared such dangerous ideas with his millions of followers. On May 29, he released a five-chapter manifesto titled...
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Read 7 tweets
Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture
10 Aug
"Taiwan's time is running out! I believe that reunification will occur within my lifetime" - On July 29-30 the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CCP Central Committee and the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office hosted the 2021 Cross-Strait Relations Seminar in Nanning, Guangxi.
1/4
(they opened a special online portal with transcribed speeches and video interviews taiwan.cn/xwzx/zxzt/2021…). The quote above is from a video circulating online of Prof Yuan Zheng, Deputy Director at the American Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
"From now on", Yuan adds, "Taiwan should give up the illusion of "Taiwan independence" and consider how to conduct political negotiations with the mainland.
2/
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Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture
21 Jul
"China will work to foster an ideological environment conducive to its rise while opposing Western values" - Yan Xuetong, leading expert on CN foreign policy and the Dean of Tsinghua U's Inst of Contemporary IR, has written a new essay that you won't want to miss. A Summary:
1/15
Yan speaks for CN policymakers who believe that CN's elevated status as a great power gives it the authority to play a new role in IR, "one that cannot be reconciled" with US hegemony, as suggested by the title, "How Should We Make the Voice of CN Diplomacy Heard in the New Era?"
According to Yan, CN's either surpassed or is rapidly closing the gap with the US in a variety of areas, including the ongoing pandemic, 5G technologies, & digital currencies, per Xi: The world is in the midst of changes "unseen in a century", a rising East & a declining West. 3/
Read 16 tweets
Tuvia Gering 陶文亚 Profile picture
19 Jul
There are a few key points and caveats about China's military ambitions in Djibouti and elsewhere that I'd like to add here, that were not included in the report:
🧵
1/12
That CN has become more aggressive toward its neighbors and repressive at home, and the ambitious nature of the BRI potentially threatens US predominance, does not necessarily mean that any steps beyond its traditional frontiers are less legitimate than the traditional powers' 2/
Beijing's top priority is to ensure that its growing number of citizens, troops, assets, and investments are no longer reliant on foreign forces for protection, particularly assets in BRI countries. Just look at the recent terror attack in Dassu for reference. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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