To clarify, if we are successful in getting SPARC approved, PSTH shares will receive $20 per share in cash plus the market value of a SPARC warrant, which should represent the option value of investing in our next IBC at SPARC’s cash NAV.
Distributable Warrant (DW) holders will receive a warrant on identical terms in SPARC. Same five-year term, same strike at 15% premium to NAV to allow DW holders to participate in the SPARC merger on same terms as PSTH.
The goal of SPARC is to eliminate PSTH’s opportunity cost of capital for shareholders by enabling the return of cash in trust while preserving the option value of investing in our next deal at cost. DW holders also maintain their optionality.
Based on the closing price of PSTH, investors are assigning no option value today because of the litigation and limited time remaining for us to do a deal. The approval of SPARC extends the option value for a long duration and returns cash in trust until a deal is ready to close.
SPARC warrants should reflect that long duration and the option value of our ability to complete a new transaction on attractive terms in a better designed vehicle.
I welcome your views on how SPARC warrants should be valued.
If you find yourself in a leaky boat, often times you are better off switching boats than patching leaks to complete the mission
For clarity: If SPARC is approved, we will issue 200m SPARC warrants with a $20 exercise price and 22.22 m Distributable Warrants with a $23 exercise price and a five-year term from the time of the IBC. This will replicate PSTH’s capital structure at the time of exercise.
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A theory: It has been accepted scientific wisdom that the virus’ R0 is ~2.4 and the CFR between 1-2%. The data and common sense suggest to me that the R0 is much higher, perhaps approaching measles at 12-18. If this is true, the CFR must be much lower perhaps similar to the flu.
Estimates of the R0 are based on extremely limited testing. If one is asymptomatic, there is no incentive to be tested. In NYC now, even if you are symptomatic, your doctor will discourage you from getting tested as there is no benefit in doing so as the treatment is the same.
If in fact the R0 is high and the asymptomatic % is high, this suggests a much lower than estimated fatality rate and a much greater probability of herd immunity developing. The fact that approaching 5% of Telluride may be infected with no symptoms suggests higher density cities
Initial antibody results just in from San Miguel County. PCR tests had shown just 8 positives out of 8,000 residents 1/1000.Initial antibody tests on 986 show 8 positive, 23 borderline, balance negative. Potentially 31/986 or 1/32 positive vs 1/1000 based on PCR testing. 30X more
Second round testing may show borderline results are positive and initial negatives become positive as it takes as much as 10 days for antibodies to emerge from exposure to the virus. Anecdotal evidence in NYC is similar. Many in NYC with symptoms choose not to get tested.
I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.
If this is true, the severity and death rate could be much lower than anticipated, and we could be closer to herd immunity than projected. Highly accurate antibody tests are scaling production and distribution which will definitively answer this question hopefully soon.
One could imagine a world in the next few months where everyone is tested and all but the immune compromised go back to a socially distanced but more normal life. We wear bracelets or carry a phone certificate which indicate our status, and track infections where they emerge.
@realDonaldTrump Mr. President, why don’t you launch the biggest infrastructure program of all time now? Roads, bridges, and other infrastructure involve outdoor work that allows for social distancing. Doing so will put Americans back to work now in good paying, virus-safe jobs.
We can finance the infrastructure with near zero cost long-term financing. Build costs will be lower because of lower commodity prices and less competition for labor. We can rebuild America’s infrastructure, and help support the economy to enhance the recovery from the virus.
You will get unanimous support from Democrats and Republicans and give us hope for the future. Let’s get a good many of our fellow Americans working again in all 50 states while those of us with desk jobs work from home.
I have received a fair bit of criticism over the last few days from some who have claimed that I and our investors have profited from the Covid 19 crisis. Some have said that I intentionally scared people about the crisis to increase our profits.
I recently addressed these critics in a six page letter, but since few have time to read six page letters, I thought it would help to summarize the facts in a few tweets.
I invest capital on behalf of 1,000s of investors through a public company called Pershing Square Holdings.
Our investors are both large and small. Since we manage funds through a public company, the price of entry is small. One share can be purchased for less than $20. Some of our investors include other fiduciaries like pension funds.
Mr. President, the only answer is to shut down the country for the next 30 days and close the borders. Tell all Americans that you are putting us on an extended Spring Break at home with family. Keep only essential services open. The government pays wages until we reopen.
No one defaults, no one forecloses. A 30-day rent, interest and tax holiday for all. The shutdown is inevitable as it is already happening, but not in a controlled fashion which is extending the economic pain and amplifying the spread of the virus.
With exponential compounding, every day we postpone the shutdown costs thousands, and soon hundreds of thousands, and then millions of lives, and destroys the economy.