Thread by @GrayConnolly

It is 0615 on Friday morning in Kabul and temperatures will reach a more pleasant 26°C (every degree counts if you are wearing armour & a helmet etc). Friday prayers today - the first after the capitulation of Kabul - may throw an additional spanner in the evacuation works

The British 16 Air Assault Brigade, with 2PARA in the lead, are reportedly undertaking recovery operations within Kabul for British subjects .... service in the finest traditions of the Maroon beret here.

telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/1…

My thread here agrees entirely with Lieutenant Commander Crenshaw - indeed this was all obvious a week ago

https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1428580283192791042

In Kabul, it is 1836 on Friday evening and, for the Americans anyway, official advice is do your best to find an open gate to Kabul Airport. We are all now a week into this .... there was never any plan👇

https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1428719517346246657

This report is why being at the mercy of Taliban checkpoints ivo the Kabul Airport is so terrible an idea - the incentive for the TB (and allies) to steal foreign IDs (for later criminal or other uses) & create a foreign hostage population is obvious

nypost.com/2021/08/20/tal…

The French & British as quasi-imperial powers [even in 2021] have a long history of complex embassy & NEO extractions - but so do the US Marines. Incomprehensible that the Marines have not been allowed by the Pentagon to do the same. This was "the plan"?

militarytimes.com/flashpoints/af…

There was never any Kabul evacuation planning - there was never any of the resourcing and channels that a plan would require and open up.

https://twitter.com/clarissaward/status/1428750831071944722

It is 0434 in Kabul on Saturday morning - temperatures will reach a hot 32°C. How are the Afghans desperately circling Kabul Airport being fed, watered, abluted, keep sanitary? Many have young children with their own food & sanitary needs? This is all *in addition* to the Taliban

This Sky News UK report from the British perimeter of the Kabul Airport is heart-rending - but it does end on a very hopeful note. Unstated but clearly the British military has been recovering its Afghans from beyond Kabul. BZ to all concerned

news.sky.com/story/afghanis…

What is happening in Biden's White House?

'The White House version, however, made no mention of a “moral responsibility” to evacuate Afghan allies.'

theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

Simply amazing that Khalil Haqqani (of jihadi Haqqani Network) is in charge in Kabul when US Govt has a US$5m bounty on Haqqani's head & the US is also trying to run an evacuation from Kabul airport. In NYT imagery, Haqqani & his guards have US weapons!
nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…

NYT graphic showing the Kabul route from the Embassy Green Zone north along the Airport Road (through the Taliban checkpoints) to the Airport. Note the military terminal (where Allied evacuation occurs) is on the far North side - ie even harder to get to vs the Taliban & the heat

US Embassy Kabul has released a "Security Alert" so Americans are directed to avoid traveling to Kabul airport & to avoid airport gates. Presumably other Allied nations will similarly direct their citizens to avoid the airport. The Aug 31 evacuation end-date looks highly dubious

Re the Kabul situation: followers will note I, daily, mention the weather/position in Kabul for the reasons @ramsaysky lays out: it is very hot, desperate Afghans are hungry & thirsty, they have no ablutions & nowhere to go, this is an absolute shambles

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1429005438448717831

As of right now, it is clear:
A/ No planning occurred for the Afghanistan evacuation - in particular, no US planning with Allies.
B/ There are tens of thousands of Afghans ivo Kabul requiring Allied protection & evacuation
C/ There are less than 10 days until the Aug 31 end-date.

In Kabul: it is 0420 on Sunday morning & temperature will reach a very hot 33°C. Around the Kabul airport are tens of thousands of desperate Afghans, who are thirsty, hungry, have traumatised children with them, and having to pass Taliban checkpoints. Less than 10 days to Aug 31

One reason you plan an evacuation out before a key is turned & a propeller rotates is significant issues around needs-based evacuees arise: children, people with disabilities etc, so you have medical personnel & medicines/aids in Kabul. The lack of planning here is just lethal.

REOPEN BAGRAM BY FORCE IF NECESSARY

“We are executing an alternate path,” a defense official told NBC News. This includes gathering smaller groups of people at specific locations and then moving them to the airport in intervals.

cnbc.com/2021/08/21/us-…

Further to the above, one of many reasons you keep the Bagram airfield complex to the *very end* is it has much more air movement capacity & it also had medical/feeding facilities that can treat and accomodate large numbers of transit personnel, eg evacuees. There was NO planning

In an alternative and well planned universe, Bagram is the air movement hub and Kabul is avoided as a place of concentration. As it is, both the Taliban & ISIL-K have Kabul as a hostage-taking environ esp if the US just ups & leaves its allies (ISAF & Afghan) on Aug 31.

With so few media staying in Kabul, am hoping @ramsaysky stays, as he provides a calm and honest picture of the omnishambles that is this evacuation

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1429119856771805194

Shambolic US non-planning has consequences

"There have been stampedes and crushing injuries in the crowds, especially as Taliban fighters fire into the air to drive away those desperate to get on any flight out of the country."

apnews.com/article/kabul-…

So far, more people have died at Kabul airport in the past few days in the chaos of the shambolic evacauation than ISAF Allied troops in the last ~2 years

foxnews.com/world/kabul-ai…

Lord Dannatt, former Chief of the General Staff (UK), speaking in the House of Lords on the fall of Kabul:

"...[The] world’s western superpower is looking enfeebled. The only glimmer of hope today is that the Taliban of 2021 is not the Taliban of 2001."

hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2021-08-…

Great but unless Bagram is reopened & some forward movement plan changed, how does extra capacity matter if people cannot physically get to the Kabul Airport?

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1429407903748870146

"The deaths come as a new, perceived threat from the Islamic State affiliate group in Afghanistan has led US military planes to perform rapid, diving combat landings at the airport, which is surrounded by Taliban fighters."

theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

I cannot see how this evacuation proceeds to any sort of success without expanding the airport into a security zone & have Allied forces do their evacuating work as a mini ISAF. This is just a cluster. And the Aug 31 deadline has to go ASAP. If it takes another year, so be it.

At this rate - without major changes - then Aug 31 is going to come, the Kabul airport will (insanely) still be the focal point for the evacuation, the Taliban will continue to choke off approaches, and thousands of Allied citizens & our Afghan allies will still be in AFG at risk

See this excellent @MPPregent graphic - danger is in these gaps & is why Allies have to create a security zone from the airport out to its approaches. Also need a mini ISAF HQ at the airport coordinating Allied movements & providing a clear real time understanding of the Kabul AO

It is simply crazy - both militarily and logistically - to accept the current Kabul airport perimeter as binding when so many of our people & our Afghan allies cannot safely (or even unsafely) approach the extraction point. And this is without thinking of the approach of Aug 31.

The Taliban clearly believe they have not just the initiative but licence to abuse within gun range of Allies conduting the evacuation:

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1429555786284421122

As recently as June, Biden was telling Allies that the US would remain in Kabul with a 'security presence' - imagine there was no mention of the US abandoning Bagram at this meeting, which then happened in July. Why no one was prepared for the past 10 days
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The passage of accurate information from the Kabul AO to the highest echelons of the US Govt seems to be completely broken

https://twitter.com/alexplitsas/status/1429488536085012481

In Kabul: it is 0420 on Monday morning & today will reach a very hot 34°C .... we are now in day 9 or 10 of desperate evacuees flooding the Afghan airport - they are thirsty, hungry, in a terrible sanitary condition & have children in tow. Meanwhile Aug 31 just over a week away

It is difficult to emphasise this enough but the conditions in Kabul now are relentlessly hot & we have evacuees who are cheek by jowl, hungry, desperate, thirsty & one wonders what the hygiene plan is for so many waiting. It is highly unlikely the TB care about 'public health'

The Kabul embassies/national compounds were in a 'green zone' & there is really just one road to/from the airport (and it is a road, not any highway). You can see the obvious channeling & "kessel" effect here. But lack of (esp US) military planning meant this outcome foreordained

There is only, really, one way in or out of the Kabul airport.👆

Either the Allied security zone expands to provide more guarded means of approaching Kabul airport or it seems a certainty we will be leaving people behind who should be evacuated.👇

https://twitter.com/stephendziedzic/status/1429679444801691649

If correct that the Taliban will not extend the Aug 31 deadline, then stay anyway & secure the evacuation. The Taliban leadership do not want to be ‘lit up’. This is all on Joe Biden now. The US either wants to be the free world’s leader - or Biden wants to be its undertaker.

Seeing a lot of reporting of the Qataris helping out or the Qataris being 'our friends'. The Qataris, like any nation state, do not do favours - they collect debts. And among Qatar's other patrons include Iran. Caveat.

To reiterate what this Kabul graphic makes clear: the approaches to Kabul airport are few & the airport road is pretty basic & has various Taliban checkpoints. And now Aug 31 is a redline. Either the date moves right or nationals & Afghan allies will be left behind/hostage risks

Anyone willing to entertain official spin on the Kabul evacuation noting Aug 31 should bear in mind that no Allied Govt:
A/ is sure how many of its citizens are actually in Afghanistan nor where they are; and
B/ is sure where the Afghans they are obliged to evacuate are located.

To wit, a prominent American liberal journalist:

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1429795268740911119

The likelihood that this question is being polled versus being thought about by strategic minds is very high, sadly

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1429916719657754624

In addition to the US Intelligence Community, you would have known all of this by following halfway decent open source reporting. But Biden was telling US Allies in June that the US was staying in Afghanistan - and then abandoned Bagram in July!

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1429961252416204806

Noting the Taliban threats ivo Kabul in relation to any Aug 31 extension, endorse this assessment by @MPPregent of the Kabul/Bagram AO .... Question is would the Taliban want to escalate this situation in circumstances? Or would the TB want hostages? Saigon 1975 or Tehran 1979?

Ignore the political spin - this is the reality on the ground: the Taliban have Kabul in a vice & anyone outside the Kabul airport precinct is in their grip or is deterred from approaching for evacuation.👇

https://twitter.com/bennpackham/status/1429977156981989381

In Kabul, it is 0610 on Tuesday morning & temperatures will reach a very hot 34°C. There are thousands of people (of all ages & needs, including children & disabled) around Kabul airport in the heat, who are thirsty, hungry, etc & many more who cannot get to the airport.

The Australian Govt at the bureaucratic Canberra level really needs a massive injection of urgency now. This is just disgusting. This is wholly avoidable and it seems Ministers will have to micro-manage dysfunctional departments. Well done @rory_callinan
msn.com/en-au/news/aus…

Joe Biden really missing in action, constantly, now, and happy to abide by the Taliban’s diktat

Strongly recommend this clear and detailed summation of the recent history of the Afghan War, and President Biden's catastrophic ending of it, by Lt Gen Keith Kellogg @generalkellogg who advised former President Trump.

Finally, danke, it is said bluntly and clearly by the Germans - the Aug 31 deadline has to shift right. Frankly, if only because all politicos understand is ‘optics’, Biden should want it to go past September 11.

Re Biden's address/rambling: the whole point of staying with a residual force was that Bagram would be held & that was where you would keep drones & other capabilities. But Bagram was the very first place abandoned in Afghanistan by Biden's Govt. There was NO planning at all.

If you were genuinely worried about the Terrorist threat in Afghanistan, your government would not just have abandoned the Bagram base where there was a large detention complex where AQ & Taliban were imprisoned.

edition.cnn.com/2021/07/06/wor…

This feckless and pathetic rationalisation - 'oh, there are terrorists' - makes absolutely no sense. We operated in the Iraq AO *for years* amid not just very well armed Shia militia but Al Qaeda in Iraq. No serious person entertains this excuse.

politico.com/news/2021/08/2…

For "but Trump" brokens: the Feb 2020 obligations for Allied withdrawal were premised on the Taliban complying with its "commitment and action on the obligations". None of this necessitated abandoning embassies or Afghan allies esp given reconstruction

state.gov/wp-content/upl…

The ISAF coalition was always going to leave Afghanistan. We were always going to have to deal with Reconstruction issues. We were always going to have to deal with Reconciliation issues.

Kabul, Aug 2021 - with embassies & our people lost to a Taliban rout - is just not that.

Do not be fooled by spin - the local Afghans needing extraction were not just the military aides/interpreters but diplomatic & intelligence services 'helpers'. Absent the Aug 31 deadline shifting right, large numbers of loyal Afghans will be left behind.

nbcnews.com/politics/natio…

Shot / Chaser

It was patently obvious that the Taliban would do this as a matter of brutality, extortion, and for possible hostage taking. The Taliban just do not fear Joe Biden.

European nations have said they would not be able to airlift all at-risk Afghans before August 31.

"Even if (the evacuation) goes on... a few days longer, it will not be enough," German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Bild TV.

news.yahoo.com/afghans-race-f…

Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K)

"The threats lay bare a complicated dynamic between the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Haqqani network, and their bitter rival, ISIS-K, in what analysts say portends a bloody struggle involving thousands of foreign fighters"

nytimes.com/2021/08/25/us/…

Disloyalty & abandonment is a choice:

"Britain said yesterday it still had 2,000 Afghan translators, related workers and their families to get out – and the likelihood is that there are only 36 hours left before its paratroopers have to begin packing up."
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…

It is 0425 on Thursday morning in Kabul where it will reach a very hot 33°C … there are less than 5 days to Aug 31 & tens of thousands of Allied dependents are still awaiting evacuation outside Kabul Airport esp Afghans wading through sewage below

To be fair to the US Govt, no Allied nation is sure how many of their nationals are in Afghanistan. But if Kabul is closed off & Aug 31 approaches, the reality is a large number will never be evacuated. With no local embassies in situ...potential hostages

reuters.com/world/us-embas…

Seeing bonkers UK etal directions for Afghan evacuees to escape via Spin Buldak border crossing - this means leaving Kabul, entering dangerous Pashtun areas [esp Kandahar the Taliban home] & crossing ivo Quetta [Pakistan military town] when Taliban is the Pakistani proxy. Crazy.

When the Afghan War autopsy is done, Pakistan's role as a key perpetrator of all that was done & especially its patronage of the Taliban (in addition to UBL in Abbottabad etc), must be the subject of extensive inquiry. Sir Richard Dearlove entirely right.

telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…

One consequence of the past few weeks' catastrophe in Afghanistan is that we will be relying on the Russians esp doing us favours 'sub rosa' to effect post Aug 31 extractions - and the Russians collect debts

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

The groundwork for 'look, we tried' is laid. I guess as US allies, the one consolation is the US Govt has treated us Allies no worse than it has treated its own citizens marooned in Afghanistan, so there is that.

https://twitter.com/jmhansler/status/1430877725548494850

It is difficult to overstate the idiocy of those who in the Biden Administration decided to:
- abandon Bagram
- run the extraction from Kabul Airport
- rely on the Taliban(!!!) for security
- hand jihadis a list of allied Afghans!!!

politico.com/news/2021/08/2…

You will have heard me go on & on about the value of the Bagram airfield complex [including its prison (filled with jihadi prisoners) and combat theatre hospital]. I have absolutely no idea how General Milley has not resigned or been relieved. Lunacy

https://twitter.com/SCUBA2024/status/1431019669863927813/video/1

Very good NYT graphic on last night's ISIS-K bombings of Kabul Airport. You will note the crowds gathered outside the gates & walls are channelled in & packed in by the cramped entries to the airport. This evacuation had no military planning-just desperate people left as targets

Less than 24 hours after a massive terrorist attack, desperate Afghans crowd the Kabul Airport, again wading through a sewage ditch in the hope of escaping the Taliban regime

The incompetence verges on treachery:

"The Taliban has mobilized a special unit, called Al Isha, to hunt down Afghans who helped US and allied forces — and it’s using US equipment and data to do it."

nypost.com/2021/08/27/tal…

April: Biden tells Afghans the US is staying in AFG

June: Biden tells ISAF allies the US is staying

July: the US abandons Bagram, precipitating the collapse of the Afghan Regime & Army

August: Taliban take Kabul & we all madly scramble to evacuate … and at the Taliban’s mercy

This @MacaesBruno on Kabul's fall👇

The incompetence was staggering. Bagram was closed, thus eliminating every possibility of an orderly evacuation. Intelligence assessments were delusional, with Pentagon spokesman John Kirby reminiscent of Baghdad Bob.

newstatesman.com/world/2021/08/…

The shambolic end of the Afghan War & the rout of Kabul (the 'withdrawal' still not finished) is an indictment of not just all of us Allies for taking on this Sissyphean task but of the US President & his esp abysmally 'led' & unprepared Defense Dept. This must never happen again

It is 0950 on Sunday morning in Kabul, where temperatures will reach 31°C. The question now - with the British, Canadians & Australians finishing their Afghan missions - is when do the Americans finally evacuate the Kabul Airport?

Via the NYT: statement from NATO that international military evacuations from Kabul Airport (HKIA) have finished. Does this mean the US is also finished its evacuations? If so, are the US’ military personnel withdrawing from the HKIA precinct?

Noting this report [via @RodgerShanahan ] of Malaysian ISIS fighters caught in Kabul by the Taliban, whose intelligence chief Maulawi Saifullah Mohammed 'said the IS prisoners would eventually “crack” during interrogation.'

malaysianow.com/news/2021/08/2…

The gauntlet has now been well and truly thrown down by the Biden White House for a massive leak fest in relation to who abandoned Bagram and why

Afghan students at the American University were to leave Afghanistan but were turned away after 7 hours waiting to get to Kabul airport. Incomprehensibly their names and passport details have been shared with the Taliban. The incompetence is murderous

nytimes.com/2021/08/29/wor…

And so the Afghan War, apparently, has ended

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1432433539581153280

Have seen video that President Ford spoke when Saigon fell in 1975. Does Biden speak? Or was that it? Some dangerously foolish briefing from the Pentagon providing unadulterated spin? That is it?

The Russians, the Turks, the Qataris, soon to become all of our 'new best friends', if any of us want to get stranded nationals out of Afghanistan - and out of any ISIS-K youtube beheading videos.

"Many are in hiding amid reports that special Taliban squads are searching for the names on lists they may have acquired in the willy-nilly U.S. withdrawal. Many will be tortured and killed, and their families too."

wsj.com/articles/last-…

Unconscionable. Military working dogs risk themselves for us. The dogs are military members, they have their own service numbers, they are 'rationed in', and dog food & grooming products have NATO stock numbers for resupply. The cruelty is unfathomable.
nypost.com/2021/08/31/ame…

As adverted to above: the Washington leakfest begins. The US abandoned Bagram in July .... then comes the final Biden-Ghani conversation on July 23 .... The text speaks for itself.

reuters.com/world/exclusiv…

Our best case scenario is probably that foreign nationals end up in Taliban hands for ransom & that our local Afghans find their way to the ‘Stans. Rest assured ISIS-K is looking for new Westerners for their psychopathic beheading videos.

Watch for the Iranians - who know Biden & Blinken will deal & they may have them only for a few years - suddenly become very interested in helping find foreign nationals ... Iran's role in also fomenting ISIS-K (like the former AQ Khorasan Group) always in the shadows.

It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of the catastrophe inflicted by the shambolic Allied evacuation on not just our deployed forces & stranded nationals - but on the loyal Afghans who risked their lives to help us. Everyone in the chain of command should be relieved/fired.

Irony died of abandonment at Kabul Airport

https://twitter.com/kristina_wong/status/1433119173643673604

Suspect that in due course the West, generally, will be dragged back into the Afghan vortex as at least a sponsor of insurgent groups destabilising the Taliban

"Current and former U.S. officials are critical of the failure of the U.S. government so far to evacuate the Afghan personnel and aircraft in Uzbekistan, as current and former U.S. officials warn of Taliban pressure on Uzbek authorities to hand them over."
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

Taliban sources say their forces take Panjshir, in full control of Afghanistan

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

Very useful [if not perfect] Ethno map of Afghanistan which will come in use in the near future as the mainly Pashtun Taliban face their own resistance from Uzbeks, Tajiks, Turkmen, Hazara, etal, who have no desire to live under Pashtun rule.

The Panjshir is north of Kabul (ironically just above Bagram) and is where the Massouds (Tajiks) have their familial allies. Have no doubt AQ fighters fought with the Taliban - AQ want their firm base back.

english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…

Everything happening now at Mazari i Sharif was obvious a month ago. When Bagram and then Kabul was given up, so was any local leverage over the Taliban.

US Govt in the worst disarray over Afghanistan:

"A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said it did not have a reliable means to confirm the basic details of charter flights"

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

The Taliban leadership are very well aware of the Propaganda effect of holding Americans on planes with the 20th anniversary of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks only days away .... It is just staggering how poorly the US Govt has handled this cluster

abc.net.au/news/2021-09-0…

The Taliban are obviously doing this for a reason & humiliating the US again in Mazar-i-Sharif - but the US is also permitting the Taliban to hold their nationals and local evacuees for no discernible reason. Would the Taliban do this to Russia or PRC?

economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internati…

The US Govt is - for reasons only its senior leadership knows - still engaged in some grovelling to the Taliban to allow the 1000+ evacuees to leave Mazar-i-Sharif. Does anyone seriously think the Russians or Chinese would tolerate this obstruction?

reuters.com/article/us-afg…

Americans held on planes by the Taliban mere days before the 20th anniversary of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks

“The group includes dozens of American citizens and green card holders and their families, the Afghans and their American advocates say.”

apnews.com/article/middle…

It is hard at times to satirise - let alone overstate - the provincial nature and entirely unrealistic depths of American diplomacy. But here we are in 2021.

The Taliban now gifting the Bagram airfield complex to China - where it would become a PLAAF aerospatial hub for China's ISR collection into the Persian and Omani Gulfs as well as transport linkages for the PRC to Iran - is, again, a strategic catastrophe

usnews.com/news/world-rep…

China's PLAAF based from Bagram airfield gives China a large hub for movements to Iran plus drone/plane recon & surveillance missions against key Allies' appoaches in Persian & Omani Gulfs (ie Gulf allies & Oman) - as well as target Allied seapower ivo Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean.

The Taliban will hopefully allow the Americans to leave by Sept 11 - but the irony of Americans being held on planes, then being released, as the Taliban Govt commences on the 20th anniversary of the AQ terrorist attacks … the Taliban get ‘propaganda’ and inflicting humiliation

NB: Deserted

"President Barack Obama signed off on an agreement that sprang the men from Gitmo in exchange for the release of Bergdahl, who had been taken captive by the Taliban after walking away from an observation post in Paktika province in June 2009"
nypost.com/2021/09/07/fou…

Superb letter in the Wall Street Journal on the shambolic Afghanistan withdrawal & Kabul evacuation written by the grandson of the White Russian General Peter Wrangel, who had organised the Russian White Armies' masterful evacuation of the Crimea in late 1920

I suspect this was a "signature strike" [where you hit a target based on discernible patterns of hostile behaviour & enemy associations that have the 'signature' of an enemy target] that has gone horribly wrong. An official explanation is required

nytimes.com/video/world/as…

Yield to no one in my criticism of Biden's Afghan debacle but quite why you would get General Disgrace on to critique it is beyond me. Petraeus passed classified information to his mistress. He should still be in prison.

cbsnews.com/news/petraeus-…

"Morell replied by pointing out that this wasn't an example of the tactic, as it instead relied on assets in Afghanistan. He noted that the U.S. is still trying to figure out what its actual, long-term "over-the-horizion" strategy will look like."

news.yahoo.com/former-acting-…

After 20+ years of frequent airstrikes (manned & Drone) on terrorist targets, this seems to have gone very wrong:

"Mr. Ahmadi, 43, had worked since 2006 as an electrical engineer for Nutrition and Education International, a California-based aid group."

nytimes.com/2021/09/10/wor…

Everything mentioned here by each NATO/ISAF commander supplied by the US was obvious in late 2001. The disdain of most US Generals for learning anything (at all) from the British & Soviet experiences was shocking at the time. Do not let them 'spin' now.

edition.cnn.com/2021/09/12/pol…

I found this Oct 2001 CNN map of Afghanistan & as we now revert to pre-2001, note that the Northern Alliance strength was in the Panjshir Valley - the role of India in supporting insurgents against the Pakistani proxy, the Taliban, now more crucial than ever. Pockets = ~Hazara

Useful graphic from a few years ago that shows why losing Bagram was such a disaster & basically cedes so much of the Khorosan/'Stan world to Iran & #DragonBear, leaving India & esp the Gulf allies on lonely flanks, positions the West had previously tried to protect them against