Those who said intraday, say Reliance broke 2078 and you sqoff the trade, then it immediately jumps to 2085. What do you do, re enter ? then again it breaks 2078, what do you do, exit ?
This can go on for quite some time
The logic of the intraday sqoff comes from this idea that if Reliance falls say another 10-20% from 2078 by the time market closes, you are facing a bigger loss.
This idea is correct in futures/cash, but not in options
Even a naked bought position is also a risk defined / limited risk trade, you can only lose upto the premium paid. Here, the trade was a spread, so the loss is defined and even lower
From a level of 2100, if you are attempting 2200 as target, you need to give the stock time and space to make that move. Intraday moves are at best random, so basing you positional SL on intraday movement is a bad strategy
For the 65% who said EOD basis closing stop, congrats you are on the right track.
For my positional option strategies, the stops are always based on EOD closing and not intraday
So the trade on Reliance which I gave, the SL was obviously by closing. In this pic, what I showed was that Reliance never closed on eod closing basis below 2078
Seeing a lot of chatter on fintwit regarding stops on EOD closes, weekly closes or even monthly closes. General chatter is that these cannot be done as by the time the market closes as per these closings, the stock may slide down further.
My view : all these stop logics are valid
In an options strategy, if you are risk defined, does not matter even if you close below 20% of your stop price. You will have the same loss as initially estimated on your strategy.
And , a naked option buy is also a RISK DEFINED
What I find even more funny is that none mentions (as I guess they have no idea) that there is a fantastic method to take care of weekly or monthly closings😀
It's not a simple add x% filter, but a more robust method of doing so.
I understood the method by reading through the works of past and current greats of technical analysis. Won't hand it over in a platter, so go read whatever you can and see if you can work out the method.
We are currently positioned bullish on NIFTY in our handholding group. The strategy is risk defined with a stoploss of 17 points. So even if Nifty gaps down 200 points and falls another 300 points, the max we lose is 17 points. 😀
We intend to hold till closing today
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
sqedoff 50% at 171 ( 197-171 = 26 = 1.6R)
sqedoff 25% at 152 ( 197-152 = 2.8R)
rest 25% SL at 190
Now how much do you sell ?
Say you have a capital of 10 lacs and your risk per trade is 0.5% per trade = Rs.5000
5000/R = 5000/16 = 300 ( 12 lots)
You sqoff 6 lots at 171, 3 lots at 152 and keep last 3 lots with 190SL
This is the position management
Maybe I am predicting a bit early, but the high of 16713 can be a top for sometime. Will get confirmation on closing ( today and tomorrow, 2 days of closings)and once this expiry gets over. Extremely dangerous negative divergences are shaping up on RSI and MFI
For TA enthusiasts, this is what I am seeing.
Negative divergences on MFI and RSI, MACD histogram.
Remember " a divergence is like a weather forecast that it may rain, but not a guarantee that it will rain. You prepare by carrying an umbrella when going out" - Martin Pring
Received quite a large number of enquiries on the main option trading webinar and the live handholding group. Rather than answering individually, explaining the major points here .
This is a fully recorded workshop with 12+ hours of video. You also get access to all tools used in this workshop. System codes are on tradingview,
they are "invite only " indicators ( meaning you will be able to use the systems for lifetime, but the codes are locked )
You can subscribe if interested and start learning at your own pace. You will need a few weeks to understand and assimilate the concepts as they
are quite exhaustive and vast.
Today's freak trade on the Nifty 16450CE reminds me of a very recent clubhouse discussion I had. Explained a black swan risk and how even an intraday trader faces it unknowingly. By definition, a black Swan is such an unexpected event that you have no way to prepare
The person who has posted the screen shot of losing 2 lacs plus on 10 lots of 16450CE is an intraday straddle seller. His backtests did not account for 100 rupee sold options getting sqedof at 600 or 800
So, this risk was not modelled into his backtest. Hence this is a black swan for him. The funniest part is, even after this all backtesting softwares will show profits as stops will be shown at say 120 or so on backtests
Ok, so completed the 4th day of live handholding today. We are doing positional as well as day-trading. Lots of old students repeating the handholding to practice. My methods are also getting sharper :)
Whenever some one asks me what returns they can expect after doing the course, my answer is " returns are a function of risk ". When pushed further, my standard answer is " around 3%", I never ever commit above this 😀
This is the actual performance of my day-trading calls. All trades explained with logic so that traders can now repeat the trades on their own.
Capital = 10 lacs. Returns given for 3 scenarios :
1% per trade risk, 0.5% per trade risk and 0.25% per trade risk