Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Aug 21, 2021 12 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I've been wanting to look at some relevant data behind the new NSW restrictions

1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern
2. Surveillance testing scrapped
3. Mandatory outdoor masks
4. Permits for authorised workers in LGAs of concern

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #sydneyprotest
1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern (includes curfew and 1-hr exercise limit)

A few of us have been trying to show the huge Covid burden in certain communities for a while

Here's a new attempt. This chart shows daily cases in each LGA as a percentage of total cases that day
The big yellow one is Fairfield, Cumberland is purple, Canterbury-Bankstown is green

Below, all 12 LGAs of concern are removed

You can see in the last 5 weeks, they've accounted for about 90% of NSW cases (changed a bit recently - orange top right is Dubbo)
In contrast, here is the same sort of chart for VIC's 2nd wave

The 11 original hotspot LGAs are down the bottom
And here it is with those LGAs removed

It shows VIC's 2nd wave was more dispersed

The original hotspot LGAs made up about 60-70% of cases, and there is more variation in what remains
This is by no means a defence of tougher measures for certain areas

The reason why NSW has *12* LGAs of concern is because Delta rolled from one into the next. Remember when we had just one?

Also, the measures raise Qs that go beyond data. But data's a good place to start
2. Surveillance testing scrapped

This didn't come as a surprise. Here is the % of cases that were notified they were positive within 24 hours of their test. We've been watching it slip. This week it tumbled enough to trigger a change
CHOs said surveillance testing was useful. Without it, maybe we should focus more on how quickly people with symptoms get tested and isolate

This is a hot topic in Victoria, yet barely rates a mention in NSW

Here we can see only about half the cases meet the <1 day target -
3. Mandatory outdoor masks

NSW now has an insurmountable 5,134 cases under investigation

2 months ago, we were all talking about 'fleeting transmission'. Then we stopped

Yesterday the Premier referred to it in the context of the mask requirement

This chart is on a log scale -
4. Permits for authorised workers in LGAs of concern

I'd like to dig into mobility data for this but will have to leave you with a teaser

Thanks to @hughskennedy and @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h, we'll soon be able to visualise the mobility data by LGA produced by @liampearson

Coming soon
As always, keen to hear your thoughts about any of the above

If you want to view the live version of the first chart, it's on the Compare Outbreaks page - covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…

Click the chart's download button for the percentage data behind it
{Correction}: Some good ppl have made constructive comments re cases under investigation. I shouldn't have connected this so exclusively to issues of masks / 'fleeting transmission'. Masks have in fact been mandatory in LGAs of concern, where most unlinked cases continue to be 🙏

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More from @juliette_io

Jan 4, 2022
How many people are in NSW hospitals *with* Covid but not *for* Covid?

The Daily Telegraph says it's 40-50% of patients

I have data from 2 major hospitals that tell a different story

🧵 1/9

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19
I asked clinicians from 4 big hospitals for an analysis of a random sample of currently admitted Covid patients

2 could help🙏

Both had very similar breakdowns:

~76-80% of Covid patients admitted *for* Covid illness
~20-24% admitted *with* Covid but for something else

Some more detail on the samples ...

Hospital A: n=21
Hospital B: n=101

Both samples were randomly selected and statistically significant given total Covid patients at each facility

Read 11 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
🚨 Those NSW hospitalisation numbers are >24 hrs behind and the situation is changing fast

ICU / ventilation increases this morning:

63 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 1
69 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 2
78 / 24 - Patient Flow Portal early AM
80 / 28 - PFP 10.20AM

#covid19aus #COVID19nsw
So from 8PM last night to mid-morning today ...

ICU patients have increased 16%
Ventilated patients have increased 47%

It is a huge jump

Both Omicron and Delta are circulating widely and feeding these numbers

*There are people with both variants in ICU*
We have little idea how much Covid there is in NSW, let alone the Delta v Omicron split

We do not know what hospitalisation / ICU / ventilation rates to expect

The best we can do is report on what is happening *right now*. Not what happened more than 24 hours ago
Read 6 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
NSW has deflected responsibility for the massive pressures on the pathology system by focusing public attention on QLD's tourism testing

But in fact sheer case load is also a major factor affecting the testing system's capacity


#covid19aus #covid19nsw #CovidTesting
Prof Dwyer has confirmed NSW pathology labs use the 'pooling' process outlined by the Reddit thread

Pooling is supposed to help the system process large numbers of samples

Eg. Test 4 samples as a group

Negative? Move on

Positive? Go back and test each sample individually

Prof Dwyer said today:

'The process of having to go back and retest positive pools takes a lot of time'


'The ability to pool is limited by how common the disease is in the community'

So the pooling process is directly affected by more cases / higher positivity rate

Read 7 tweets
Oct 12, 2021
🧭 NSW LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 diff outbreaks:

1. Southwest / West Syd: +162 = 4414 (-51%)
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +50 = 1513 (-56%)
3. Regional NSW: +137 = 3064 (+36%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details 👇
#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Regional NSW -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 410 (10%) 😏

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +31=851 (-3%) 😃

Kiama: +0 = 3 (-84%)
Shellharbour: +14 = 153 (-21%)
Shoalhaven: +3 = 121 (55%)
Wollongong: +14 = 574 (-2%)
📍 Far West: +1=46 (-45%) 🤗

Broken Hill: +1=30 (-45%)
Wentworth: +0=16
Read 16 tweets
Oct 12, 2021
🧭 VIC LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

VIC as 3 different outbreaks:

1. North/West Metro: +867 = 13,050 (+82%)
2. Rest of Metro: +479 = 6,670 (+352%)
3. Regional VIC: +110 = 1,190 (+441%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details👇

#COVID19Vic #covid19aus
1. North/West Metro (original growth areas) -

📍 North Melbourne: +511=7807 (50%) 😏

Banyule: +24=325 (102%)
Darebin: +53=686 (144%)
Hume: +203=3589 (17%) 👏
Moreland: +63=1135 (46%)
Nillumbik: +6=85 (325%)
Whittlesea: +162=1987 (116%)
📍 West Melbourne: +356=5243 (170%) 😒

Brimbank: +99=1345 (209%)
Hobsons Bay: +25=352 (72%)
Maribyrnong: +30=405 (426%)
Melton: +80=1277 (239%)
Moonee Valley: +35=522 (129%)
Wyndham: +87=1342 (115%)
Read 13 tweets
Oct 7, 2021
Waiting to hear back from @healthgovau media about Commonwealth hotspots expiring last night for 38 LGAs in VIC

Seems they're going to let the hotspots lapse in VIC, NSW, ACT

Here's a look at the very diff circumstances in each state

#covid19aus #covidvic #covid19nsw
1. VIC

Current hotspot declaration: 5 Aug - 7 Oct
Cases: 1,322 daily in Metro (7-day avg)
Vax: 55.6% 2 dose

*Shading = days covered by Commonwealth hotspots declaration
2. NSW

Current hotspot declaration: 26 Jun - 11 Oct
Cases: 584 daily in Greater Sydney (7-day avg)
Vax: 70.3% 2 doses
Read 7 tweets

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