Thread by @drvyom

Great questions on #thedrum put to Prof Lewin. She confirms that once we are at 70-80% vaccination, whether we start off with 30 cases, or 100's of cases, we're in essentially the same situation. 'We're catching the same curve, just getting to the peak quicker', to paraphrase.

She's pretty clear on this. @bairdjulia asked the question a few times to confirm.

Re kids: Prof states modelling examined benefits of targeting different population w/vaccinations, and impact on transmission/hosp/deaths. 20-29, big pay off. 12-15's not as much. Affirms they SHOULD be vaccinated. But modelling says it shouldn't impact opening up plans.

'shouldn't' isn't an opinion of Prof Lewin, she's implying that the modelling suggests vaccinating kids wouldn't make a substantial difference to broader transmission/hosp/deaths. (this is not a statement re: harms/benefits to kids though, the discussion continues..)

Sorry, end of thread. Counterbalancing this against harms to kids from opening up is a whole other discussion that they touched on.

Worth mentioning, this contradicts what epidemiologist Tony Blakely said today, saying if you start off with high numbers, contact tracing will be overwhelmed. (ok thread continues)

Nah changed my mind thread over

Worth noting, whether vaccinating kids prior to opening up changes transmission/hosp/deaths is totally seperate to something else - how many kids will get #covid19aus due to opening up at 70-80%. A few factors to consider (yes, thread back on)

Yes, the chances of kids getting severely ill or dying is far, far smaller than that of adults.
But also, law of big numbers - the number of kids getting seriously ill/dying in total could still make many of us all deeply uncomfortable, even if 'small'.

Also, severe illness and death isn't the only thing to be concerned about. Moderate illness can be pretty bad, and require hospitalisation. Number of unvaccinated kids who get mod illness will be much bigger than those severely ill.

As for long covid in kids, another issue that is brought up. Does long covid correlate with the severity of illness? If it's mostly experienced by kids who had severe infection, and very few have severe infection, that's one thing. But is it experienced by kids with mod covid?

I actually don't know the answer for this. I've seen people post links from sources with different views. I don't know because I haven't actually done any reading on this.

Apart from modelling, we should also look at Israel, Singapore and UK. They're all in the ballpark of 65-80% of the entire population being immunised. What's life, death, hospitalisations looking like there? What's the trend? How are kids faring there with covid and life?

No doubt our decisions should be informed by modelling/overseas experience. But it should also be informed by our reality as it unfolds. No point sticking to the plan rigidly if the modelling is contradicted by the situation on the ground.

And yet, it will be hard for leaders to change the targets already set, if things aren't going our way. It won't be popular with a rightly tired and frustrated people.

Bloody hell, this isn't easy, is it? Goodnight.