We must hold it together for 3 months. If, I stress, if, we get the outbreaks around Aus under control, we can't risk another. That's playing russian roulette with 5 full chambers. Bolster quarantine chain. Strategically vaccinate, including contacts of quarantine workers
Currently household members of quarantine workers are eligible - not enough. we must reach out to them, incentivise it. Include their social contacts too. Pay them a grand each. Who the fuck cares? Do you know how much we've spent on submarines that don't submarine very well?
This pandemic, many of us have fought for better infection prevention and control. We've done it in our workplaces. We've counselled our colleagues. We've written to authorities. We've gone to the press. To many, it seemed like overkill. They have been dead wrong.
They've been dead wrong not only because of underestimation of airborne spread, but a total misunderstanding of the utterly asymmetric risk/benefit of upgrading infection prev/control even with uncertainty of the science at various stages of the pandemic.
we now have HIGHLY efficacious vaccines to add to the infection prevention/control mix. Like - holy fuck, what else could you wish for? Tight PPE, ventilation experts giving practical solutions for existing facilities (yes, even in hotels), plus vaccines that reduce transmission.
it is absolutely possible to keep it together for a few months until we get significant vaccine coverage - enough to smash transmission back down to something that is traceable without lockdowns.
Goodnight.
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If NSW is the only place with numerous unidentified chains of transmission, surely its in the interest of all states to divert majority of vaccines to NSW to end this outbreak? 1-2 mil doses of Pfizer in next month of lockdown could radically change transmission dynamics.
Vic is getting this outbreak under control- what’s the biggest risk after its sorted and lockdowns end? Probably the reservoir of 100s of covid cases across the border. Same for QLD. Same for any state that literally doesn’t have Resident Evil style laser beams at the borders.
There probably is a mathematically optimal point to that balances the benefits of vaccinating nsw to control outbreak vs the benefits to other states from vaccinating their own populations to protect against leaks. point is - the 2 SHOULD be balanced, wherever the sweet spot is.
Lockdown with couple of cases- this is delta life. It’s obvious now- tracing alone can’t RELIABLY control outbreaks. If we somehow avoid permanent seeding of Covid, there’s one way to avoid future lockdowns.
Bolster the shit out of quarantine chain till Aus is highly vaccinated.
Mandate, enforce, audit airborne precautions and vaccination for workers.
Incentivise contacts of quarantine chain workers to get vaccinated with Pfizer. Their families. Their mates.
Big difference between making people eligible, vs actually reaching out and getting it done.
The travel cap has been cut in half and that may help. In the meantime ventilation should be audited regularly with air purifiers to be used widely.
spending a few hundred million means nothing when we are trying to save many lives and billions of dollars per week.
So a few weeks ago, I met someone (not a patient) who said 'Hmm I don't think I'll get the vaccine, I heard it may cause infertility' - (a comprehensively debunked piece of misinformation).
Well, yesterday I overheard him saying something that made me laugh with joy.
That first time we spoke, I asked him where he'd heard this claim of infertility (he couldn't remember). I told him I'd heard something similar too, and looked into it. I told him where the claim originated, and why I didn't believe it. He went 'huh'.
I didn't know for sure if he was persuaded by this. In a way I was too late - two other people I know were now also repeating this false claim. Where did they hear it from? From him. Misinformation was miles in front of truth.
But I also had time - I knew I'd see him frequently.
With 6 days of zero cases, its stupid to assume Vic has achieved elimination. But 1-2 weeks from now, if we find ourselves staring at a line of donuts on the calendar, it'd be stupid to rule it out. At this point National Cabinet may want to reconsider the #covid19aus strategy.
Now, some would say they already should consider it, but I have very low expectations of our federal government.
'Wouldn't elimination mean doing the same thing we've already done?' I'd say yes and no, \mostly no. We could have a national standardised approach to #testtraceisolate & thoroughly reassess Infection Prevention Control in high risk settings (factories/food/health/aged services)