Thread by @lxeagle17

California recall is under a month away, and we have our first sets of mail return data! Let’s break down the numbers, per @paulmitche11.

My initial takeaway: This is beginning a lot like 2020's mail returns did, and that's pretty good news for Democrats. But still early.

https://twitter.com/Political_Data/status/1430005403421605894

In CA, 68% of November 2020 ballots were cast by mail. AP estimates that Biden won them 72-26. The Dem/Ind/GOP split was 50/25/25 in share of returned ballots. Currently, it’s 56/22/22 in the first batch of data (5% returned; November saw 61% returned).

Yesterday, the report we got indicated 3% of ballot returns. From there, Democratic share has dipped a percent or two, which makes sense considering how few ballots have been returned and how Democrats tend to return their ballots earlier.

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1429877260178247696?s=20

Worth noting that these return rates are actually nearly as favorable in terms of partisan splits as they were at a comparable point in the general election. Per @Political_Data dashboards, it's around ~90% of the November turnout rate.

Dem share now: 56%. Dem share then: ~57%.

Early returns are, at the least, very favorable for Dems. Independents will almost certainly *not* break towards Newsom by the same margin they did towards Biden, so margin extrapolation is hard. But if mail return rate/partisan splits are similar to November, it's likely enough.

CNN estimates Newsom won independents by 7 in 2018. Biden, per those estimates, won them by 22.

GOP need to win independents by a decent margin if "Yes" is to win, *even with low Democratic turnout*, because of the fact that Democrats outnumber them by nearly 2:1.

What about race? Well, the electorate is roughly as white as it was at a similar point in November (68%), but VBM Latino turnout is just a bit behind November levels (16% of the electorate now vs ~18% at a similar point in November). It’s still *very* early, though.

Age breakdowns don’t paint that big of a divergence from 2020 at the moment, so I won't go into as much detail here just yet -- I'd like to see how that unfolds. Likely just a touch older, but given how Biden won every age group by decent margins, that's not *as* informative.

Ultimately, from partisan return rates, the first data batches indicate good turnout news for Dems in the recall, as they begin at levels comparable to November. It’s early, though, so avoid over-extrapolation. GOP have a HUGE wall to scale (D+29 state); let’s see how it unfolds.

My rating stays Likely D. Worth noting just how much has to go in GOP's favor in a universal VBM state to win. GOP vote more in-person, and their enthusiasm is high, but if mail turnout rates and splits stay at levels comparable to November, the task for "Yes" would be herculean.

The only way the GOP win is probably via low Democratic base turnout.

Doesn't look like a great start for them, but the real question will be the rate at which lower-engagement Dem voters return ballots. Watch the mail return rates and benchmark against 2020 for some clues.

One last thing: please do not cite *that* stupid SurveyUSA poll to me if you're trying to yell at me about what this recall's rating should be. I've broken it down to show why that poll is mathematically impossible, and I put zero stock into it.

A huge thank you to Paul Mitchell (@paulmitche11, @CA_120) for their publicly available data tracking tool politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-re…. All I'm doing is interpreting/explaining and breaking it down as I see it, but his work is what allows us to have any type of insight here.