Thread by @lxeagle17

I wrote about midterm electorates, their changes from presidential years, and the partisan implications today in the Crystal Ball. Educated voters seem to turn out more while minorities turn out less, and that makes 2022 fascinatingly complicated.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…

In states like New Hampshire or Wisconsin, it is plausible that your electorate might be more Biden supporting than it was a year ago, at least in terms of 2020 vote cast, because of how white they are…

But that doesn’t mean Democrats would actually do better, though, because voters could be persuaded to vote R (shown by Biden’s currently low approval ratings) — the picture for a good Democratic 2020 in those states that largely relies upon keeping those suburban gains intact

The other variable is minority turnout. Here, they’re helped by the nation getting more and more nonwhite every year, and a high turnout scenario would help address some of this. But if they want any type of shot at keeping, say, AZ or GA, Black/Latino turnout needs to stay up.

Anyways, read the article if you want to know more! Special thanks to @kkondik, @JMilesColeman, and @LarrySabato for their help and did letting me publish this there, to @Nate_Cohn and @jon_m_rob for all their tips with this entire piece, and to @Catalist_US for the data.