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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
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25 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Coverage of the House passage of the reconciliation bill is terribly process oriented.

It's really hard to learn what's in bill & how it would affect Americans' lives.
nyti.ms/3zfieTv
If the newspapers are reluctant to make their own independent characterizations, at least quote some pols, some think tankers, some interest group representatives, some Americans in diners...
Truly, I want to know. What is this bill promising to do & how, with what chance of success? What the heck are these programs?!
congress.gov/committee-prin…
Almost no one cares about all this palace intrigue, tactical tick tock stuff.

But for some reason that's what editors want to tell us.

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More from @aaronsojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
26 Aug
Cops have unique power to force others to spend time close to them -- to pull people over, to detain them, to force them into the same car or room.

Therefore, they have a special responsibility to minimize the risk they'll spread infection.
This applies to teachers too, and with special force for those teaching kids age 5-11, who are both legally compelled to be in school & legally barred from being vaccinated.
Same for corrections officers, judges, baliffs...
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
23 Aug
Reporters often ask if service workers' recent compensation improvements will stick in the long-run.

To answer yes, one really needs a theory that something changed long-run.
I have the sense their compensation improvements are driven by short-term imbalances in adjustment speeds between supply & demand, not long-term changes in productivity or balance of power. So I'd bet no.
However, one big change does seem permanent: many organizations & workers invested in maximizing their ability to operate with geographically distributed teams. That capacity now exists & isn't going away.
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
27 Jul
It's been a month. State that decided to cut off their residents' access to UI benefits early have done so.

Without the $300/wk federal supplement to regular state programs, have they experienced faster declines in the shares of their population continuing to claim regular UI?
No. The number of continuing claims in regular state programs seems to be declining just as fast in not-cutting as in cutting states. Image
Here it is in difference-in-differences form relative to the week ending May 8, the last week before the first state announced its intention to cut off federal UI payments.

No difference in trends in not-cutting versus cutting states. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
3 May
Switch the phrase "labor shortage" for "wage shortage" & all these news stories make more sense.

Some employers won't raise wage offers to hires bcz internal equity then pressures for raises to incumbents, & that reduces profit.

Signing bonuses avoid this & ain't it.
3 things can all be true. Employer prefers to:

1. hire a worker at wage currently paid to incumbents,

2. hire a worker at higher wage if they could keep incumbents at current wage,

3. NOT hire a worker at higher wage bcz they'll have to give incumbents raises or some'll quit.
This is a basic idea of monopsonistic labor markets. @arindube & co-authors have a great paper showing the importance of the internal equity constraint.
aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
26 Mar
Public feeling towards labor unions is more positive than in any year on record back over half a century, @electionstudies.

Public feeling towards big business is more negative than in any year on record.

The gap is bigger than any year on record.
The representation gap -- the difference between the share of workers who want a union & share who have one -- has been growing. Best evidence @TomKochan @_elkelly @ILRReview.

More than half of all workers want to belong to a union but less than 11% do.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00…
Read 13 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
25 Mar
898K Americans filed new regular state + PUA claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending 3/20, down 13% from prior week.

Tho this is still a very high level historically, it's the lowest since 51 weeks ago when we experienced a record-smashing claims spike to 3.3m.
The share of adults employed is lifting off & workers' expectations about the labor market continues its rapid improvement, per new evidence @uscensusbureau #householdpulsesurvey.
The rise in employed share over the last month is corroborated in Bick & Blandin's quasi-CPS.
Read 10 tweets

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