Thread by @ashishkjha

2 weeks ago, I tweeted that I was worried about South Dakota

With implications far beyond SD

My concern?

South Dakota has VERY high population immunity

But they were hosting Sturgis rally

Which would be a test

Well?

Test results are in

And its not great

Thread

Below is the original picture from my thread from August 12

It showed persistently LOW levels of infection in SD compared to neighbors

Because SD has so much population immunity

Probably 75-80%!

But Sturgis rally was happening

So question was

What would happen next?

2/6

Fundamentally, the question was:

Can a place with 75-80% immunity manage a mass gathering with no masking, distancing and very few vaccinated folks?

Well, the data are in

And its not good for SD -- or any of us

In just 2 weeks?

Infection numbers have shot up nearly 600%

3/6

Of course, Sturgis was never just about SD

People come from all over and return home

So we'll see large effects in neighboring states

But the broader lesson?

That 75% population immunity is not enough to hold mass gatherings like Sturgis

nbcnews.com/news/us-news/s…

4/6

And nationally, we're well below 75%

So without a lot more vaccinations (or infections)

We remain vulnerable to gatherings like Sturgis

One more point

Last year Sturgis set off a wave of infections that likely killed thousands

This year we should have known better

5/6

2 weeks ago I wrote why we need to be watching SD

Hoping high population immunity might protect it

It appears if you want to host mass rally with no masking, no distancing, large indoor gatherings

You need way more immunity

Fin

p.s. original thread

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1426003345316229125?s=20