People concerned if we give 3rd shots (booster) to Americans
it'll mean fewer shots for the many unvaccinated folks in the world
Sounds right
But reality is more complicated
In the short run, I think we can boost the elderly largely with vaccines we can't send abroad
Thread
it'll mean fewer shots for the many unvaccinated folks in the world
Sounds right
But reality is more complicated
In the short run, I think we can boost the elderly largely with vaccines we can't send abroad
Thread
As of today, we have 80 million doses distributed to states
They are sitting in pharmacies, doctors' offices, hospitals
It is not possible to go collect those doses, pack them up, and ship them to another nation
No country would accept them
So we have to use them here
2/4
They are sitting in pharmacies, doctors' offices, hospitals
It is not possible to go collect those doses, pack them up, and ship them to another nation
No country would accept them
So we have to use them here
2/4
They all have limited shelf life
We are using about 0.77M doses/day
And at current pace, it'd take 104 days to use up doses already distributed
Many of these doses will expire before then
Does that mean we should start boosting to avoid wasting doses?
Of course not
3/5
We are using about 0.77M doses/day
And at current pace, it'd take 104 days to use up doses already distributed
Many of these doses will expire before then
Does that mean we should start boosting to avoid wasting doses?
Of course not
3/5
Boosting should be done if evidence warrants
And my read of evidence is that boosting needed for folks >65
There are 45M fully vaccinated Americans >65
Even if 100% of them got boosted
We'd still have 35M doses in states, enough to vaccinate at current pace until Halloween
And my read of evidence is that boosting needed for folks >65
There are 45M fully vaccinated Americans >65
Even if 100% of them got boosted
We'd still have 35M doses in states, enough to vaccinate at current pace until Halloween
What about young healthy people?
No compelling data they need boosters
So if we just boost all elderly,
We won't need much fresh federal supplies until November (and not that much even in November)
Which gives US lots of time to send even more doses abroad
5/6
No compelling data they need boosters
So if we just boost all elderly,
We won't need much fresh federal supplies until November (and not that much even in November)
Which gives US lots of time to send even more doses abroad
5/6
Bottom line
80M doses already distributed to states
They can't be sent abroad
Likely to see many of them tossed
So if FDA finds that boosters work in elderly
By all means folks should get them
Because those booster doses aren't going to India
They're getting wasted
Fin
80M doses already distributed to states
They can't be sent abroad
Likely to see many of them tossed
So if FDA finds that boosters work in elderly
By all means folks should get them
Because those booster doses aren't going to India
They're getting wasted
Fin
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