In contrast to other parts of Australia, the NSW government refused to lockdown when the delta variant was first detected in the community, and implemented restrictions only grudgingly.
The contrast between NSW and where I live speaks volumes.
We have no known transmission.
Unfortunately, I fear the negligence of the NSW government will affect us eventually.
It will be harder to keep COVID-19 out now, and we still have many people to vaccinate.
This is the second major problem we face. Our cheapskate federal government didn’t buy enough vaccines.
We do, finally, have enough vaccines ordered, but there will not be sufficient supply to complete the vaccination programme for some months yet.
This is why an elimination strategy is so important - to buy us time to vaccinate.
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The authors suggest two theories for this, both of which could be true.
First, certain mutations could "unlock" new space for further mutations to occur. This seems quite likely: the virus has only just started to adapt to humans
Second, selection pressure could be driving an increase in mutations. Think of the first wave in Manaus, Brazil, where people thought herd immunity had been reached. A second wave followed, as the virus evaded immunity and got better at infecting people.
At what level of vaccination can Australia safely reopen?
With 70% of adults vaccinated, expect:
📈 6.9 million cases
🏥 154,000 hospitalisations
☠️ 29,000 deaths
At 80%:
☠️ 25,000 deaths
🤒 270,000 people with long COVID
We need >90%, including children, to be safe. #auspol
Children & adolescents must be included to reopen safely. If we don’t vaccinate them we can expect thousands of deaths from vaccine breakthrough infections.
Children also benefit directly from vaccination.
75% vaccination in children would prevent 12,000 child hospitalisations.
These figures are the results of new modelling produced by @GraftonQuentin, @Tom_Kompas, John Parslow, & me.
We explored what would happen when the final stage of the National Plan is reached, where it’s proposed to manage COVID-19 like flu.
Study of vaccine effectiveness in New York (51% received Pfizer-BNT, 40% Moderna, and 9% J&J). Protection against symptomatic infection decreased over 3 months from 92% to 80% (likely delta variant effect) but hospitalisation protection maintained at ~95%. cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
During the course of the study, the prevalence of the delta variant increased from <2% to more than 80% in the area in which the study was conducted.
This seems like the most likely reason for the decrease in effectiveness against symptomatic infection.
This study demonstrates the importance of continuing public health measures, such as improving ventilation and using masks in public places, until very high levels of vaccination are achieved in the population.
The authors also state that "[r]outine vaccination of well teenagers aged 12–15 years adds little to the reduction in COVID-19 transmission through the community."
This is false.
While there is some debate about how much children transmit, adolescents transmit just like adults.
Making schools safe requires a comprehensive package of measures, including the use of face masks and improved ventilation.
Ideally, students & staff should also be vaccinated, but remember that people aren’t fully protected until after the second dose.
➡️thelancet.com/journals/lance…
It’s also important to remember that these people first had to get infected and become a breakthrough case before they were at risk of developing long COVID.
Developing long COVID after vaccination is probably uncommon (but not rare).
The risk of becoming infected after vaccination should decrease as more of the population is vaccinated. Even if herd immunity isn’t reached, there should be some herd protection.
But until transmission is brought to low levels, it would be a good idea to keep wearing a mask. 😷