Be very, very careful when interpreting returned ballots data in the #CAGOV race.
- Democrats are more likely to vote by mail + turn in ballots earlier
- Lower I turnout is expected for this type of election
- Many counties may be underreporting ballots
- Democrats are more likely to vote by mail + turn in ballots earlier
- Lower I turnout is expected for this type of election
- Many counties may be underreporting ballots
https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1430916017308323853?s=20
Also important to remember that the recall election is not just about turnout - it's also about persuasion.
Republicans can't win just with high turnout - the numbers aren't there. They have to flip Biden voters. They're definitely flipping some, just a question of is it enough.
Republicans can't win just with high turnout - the numbers aren't there. They have to flip Biden voters. They're definitely flipping some, just a question of is it enough.
(I will have more analysis of the #CAGOV returned ballots data when I have time!)
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