Overall I'm pretty happy with my final call that Adams had a slight advantage!
Originally had Garcia favored, but glad I flipped when I looked at the data and realized that the pro-Garcia absentee skew was probably not going to be as strong as my priors.
Originally had Garcia favored, but glad I flipped when I looked at the data and realized that the pro-Garcia absentee skew was probably not going to be as strong as my priors.
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1412242307793907721?s=20
My baseline assumption that the absentee vote would be roughly equivalent to the early vote panned out really well.
Adams led Garcia for first round preferences among early voters by 3.58%.
For absentee/provisional voters it was Adams +2.53%.
Adams led Garcia for first round preferences among early voters by 3.58%.
For absentee/provisional voters it was Adams +2.53%.
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1412242309878480896?s=20
The surprise to me was that Garcia actually did worse among reallocated RCV absentee/provisional voters (61% - 39%) than she did among reallocated RCV in-person voters (65% - 35%).
This was because the absentee pool skewed more towards Yang than Wiley.
This was because the absentee pool skewed more towards Yang than Wiley.
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1412242310939611138?s=20
I think the inclination for a lot of people (including myself at first before I flipped) was that absentee votes would have a gigantic skew because that's what happened in the 2020 presidential election.
But as we can see, sometimes the absentee vs. in-person skew isn't enough!
But as we can see, sometimes the absentee vs. in-person skew isn't enough!
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