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Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
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31 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
California Returned Ballots Update (with a comparison to the equivalent point in 2020):

Aug 30, 2021 - 3,796,496 votes
54.48% D / 23.51% R / 22.02% I
D+30.97%

Oct 19, 2020 - 3,988,502 votes
56.21% D / 21.07% R / 22.72% I
D+35.14%
Takeaways from CA returned ballots data:
- Turnout is high, almost keeping pace with returned ballots at an equivalent point in 2020.
- GOP may have a small enthusiasm advantage (4% change in D-R right now), but will need to flip many Biden voters to win.

Keep in mind that this turnout data does NOT mean that Republicans are gonna lose in a landslide.

The CBS/YouGov poll had a Likely Voters / Registered Voters gap of only 4 points but was close because they found 16% of Biden voters were for the recall.

While a small turnout advantage could help Republicans (and push them over in a close race), my reading of the data suggests their path to victory is more reliant on flipping Biden voters.

The ballot representing the election as a referendum rather than a choice helps them here.

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More from @ryanmatsumoto1

Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
14 Sep
FINAL CALIFORNIA RECALL ESTIMATE (my personal opinion):

Keep Newsom - 59%
Remove Newsom - 41%

(1/7)
Here are my county-by-county estimates for top 25 counties by population (hopefully some of them pan out!):

Los Angeles: 68% Keep 32% Remove
San Diego: 54% Keep 46% Remove
Orange: 48% Keep 52% Remove
Riverside: 46% Keep 54% Remove
San Bernardino: 49% Keep 51% Remove

(2/7)
More county estimates for the recall:

Santa Clara: 70% Keep 30% Remove
Alameda: 77% Keep 23% Remove
Sacramento: 57% Keep 43% Remove
Contra Costa: 66% Keep 34% Remove
Fresno: 47% Keep 53% Remove

(3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
29 Aug
Current breakdown of returned ballots in CA is 54% D / 24% R / 22% I.

At an equivalent point in 2020 (Saturday 10/17), the breakdown was 57% D / 21% R / 22% I.

Consistent with a small R enthusiasm advantage relative to 2020 (note: this is NOT me saying the recall wins).
This is not to say that the recall will prevail (we currently have it at Likely D), but just that current returns suggest an electorate that may ultimately be a few points more favorable for Republicans than November 2020.

To win, Republicans need to flip a LOT of Biden voters.
One thing I'm wondering about is whether or not we should expect some Democratic 2020 vote-my-mail voters to shift back into the Election Day pool because they're less worried about COVID now.

If so, the *Election Day* pool could be more favorable for Democrats than 2020.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
25 Aug
Although initial returned ballots data in California (57% D, 22% I, 21% R) seems decent for Democrats, I think there's a possibility that current data may be a bit skewed and may actually be consistent with Republicans having a bit of an enthusiasm advantage.

THREAD (1/4) 🧵
It looks like there are many counties in California that are either not reporting or underreporting returned ballots data - these counties tend to be more rural and Republican-leaning than the state.

For example, Kern County (Trump +10) has barely reported anything yet.

(2/4) Image
If we focus only on counties where there *are* a substantial number of ballots returned, the comparison to an equivalent point in 2020 is not as rosy for Democrats.

In Los Angeles County, for example, there was a D+49 party advantage three weeks out but only D+43 now.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
23 Aug
The current partisan breakdown of returned ballots in the California Recall is about the same as it was at an equivalent point in 2020:

2021 Recall (8/23): 58% D, 20% R, 22% Other
2020 General Election (10/12): 57% D, 21% R, 22% Other

Of course, important to note that Republicans in California are both (i) more likely to return absentee ballots later on and (ii) vote in-person on Election Day.

Here's what the data trend looked like leading up to the 2020 general election:

In the 2020 general election, 87% of Californians who voted did so by mail. This may decrease for the recall (we saw this in the NYC Mayor primary), but CA tends to have high VBM rates (65% in 2018 and 58% in 2016). Ballots are now mailed to every active registered voter.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
7 Jul
Overall I'm pretty happy with my final call that Adams had a slight advantage!

Originally had Garcia favored, but glad I flipped when I looked at the data and realized that the pro-Garcia absentee skew was probably not going to be as strong as my priors.

My baseline assumption that the absentee vote would be roughly equivalent to the early vote panned out really well.

Adams led Garcia for first round preferences among early voters by 3.58%.

For absentee/provisional voters it was Adams +2.53%.

The surprise to me was that Garcia actually did worse among reallocated RCV absentee/provisional voters (61% - 39%) than she did among reallocated RCV in-person voters (65% - 35%).

This was because the absentee pool skewed more towards Yang than Wiley.

Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
6 Jul
Here's where I see the NYC Mayor race heading into tomorrow:
- It's a toss-up between Adams and Garcia
- Garcia is very likely to stay ahead of Wiley
- Garcia should win the absentee vote (final round) - the question is whether or not her margin is big enough (she needs +16-17%)
There's a lot of uncertainty, but I'd say Adams may have a very slight advantage.

Potential Final Round Vote Shares:
Adams 50.2%
Garcia 49.8%
Based on early vote / absentee vote data by Assembly District, it seems reasonable to say that the absentee vote may look similar to the early vote (which was about Adams 28.07% Garcia 24.49% in first round - h/t @Wertwhile and @MC_of_A).

This is a decent place to start.
Read 5 tweets

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