Current breakdown of returned ballots in CA is 54% D / 24% R / 22% I.
At an equivalent point in 2020 (Saturday 10/17), the breakdown was 57% D / 21% R / 22% I.
Consistent with a small R enthusiasm advantage relative to 2020 (note: this is NOT me saying the recall wins).
At an equivalent point in 2020 (Saturday 10/17), the breakdown was 57% D / 21% R / 22% I.
Consistent with a small R enthusiasm advantage relative to 2020 (note: this is NOT me saying the recall wins).
This is not to say that the recall will prevail (we currently have it at Likely D), but just that current returns suggest an electorate that may ultimately be a few points more favorable for Republicans than November 2020.
To win, Republicans need to flip a LOT of Biden voters.
To win, Republicans need to flip a LOT of Biden voters.
One thing I'm wondering about is whether or not we should expect some Democratic 2020 vote-my-mail voters to shift back into the Election Day pool because they're less worried about COVID now.
If so, the *Election Day* pool could be more favorable for Democrats than 2020.
If so, the *Election Day* pool could be more favorable for Democrats than 2020.
87% of California votes were from people voting by mail in 2020. For comparison, the vote-by-mail rate was 65% in 2018 and 58% in 2016.
If I had to guess, I'd expect the vote-by-mail rate to be somewhere between 2018 and 2020 levels in the recall election this year.
If I had to guess, I'd expect the vote-by-mail rate to be somewhere between 2018 and 2020 levels in the recall election this year.
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