Nate Johnson Profile picture
26 Aug, 18 tweets, 7 min read
Now that I’m back home from Tulsa, I wanted to reflect for a moment on #nwas21, which was, to the best of my knowledge, the first open meeting in the weather enterprise with an in-person component in a year and a half.

TL;DR So much pride. So much gratitude.

1/ Image
Over the last year, we’ve been watching COVID trends like everyone else. Two months ago, it looked like we’d have been able to have had a pretty large in-person meeting, potentially without many restrictions.

Then the variant-that-shall-not-be-named reared its ugly head.

2/
For the last few weeks, @JaniceBunting and I were talking daily, sharing stats, reviewing guidance, and so forth. That lead to more conversations with folks in Tulsa on case rates, hospitalization figures, and guidance from civic leaders.

3/
We convened two Board meetings to discuss our plans and whether and how we should move forward with the in-person component. (Fortunately we’d been planning a hybrid meeting all along, so the show would go on either way.)

4/
After a deep review of the situation, the latest CDC guidance, local updates, and requests from the city & healthcare leaders, the Board decided to move forward with an in-person component, to require proof of vaccination, and to require masking in our space.

5/
We aren’t doctors. We aren’t epidemiologists. We aren’t infectious disease experts.

So we listened to those who are - and to the community that was to host our meeting.

And we held our in-person activities in the most responsible way we could: Fully vaxxed and masked.

6/
We can’t eliminate the risk, of course, and it would be foolish to suggest otherwise.

But we can take steps to mitigate that risk for those who wanted and felt comfortable to attend in person while also providing a full and meaningful experience for attendees online.

7/
I am proud of the @nwas Board of Directors for its thoughtful and deliberate approach to this topic.

I am grateful to the #nwas21 in-person attendees for being the responsible guests in our host city and for complying with the requirements without complaint.

8/
There are many people whose time, talent, and treasure resulted in this meeting coming together. I want to highlight a few.

@JaniceBunting and @StormySongbird at @nwas HQ are the wizards behind the curtain. They do so much that we never see but that is utterly critical.

9/
The annual meeting committee and especially the co-chairs, @weeiindysellers and @shawncable, pulled together a fascinating four days of sessions and conversations, and Shawn helped keep sessions running smoothly throughout the meeting.

10/
Our partners with @factor110 juggled in-person and virtual talks flawlessly, keeping the in-person A/V and remote streams flowing smoothly for all attendees. Honestly, for many remotely delivered talks, I forgot the presenters were even remote.

11/
(And we minimized the “can you see my screen?” and “can you hear me now?” moments that have become all too common in our lives in the last 18 months.)

12/
I also need to highlight @BetsyKling who once again helped to program an excellent broadcast workshop for Sunday. (We look forward to buying raffle tickets next year!)

13/
I want to express my deep gratitude to our keynote speakers, Anzio Williams, @PlanetaryKeri, & @kdroege, and our invited speakers, @wx4keg, Russ Schneider, and @NWSDirector, for sharing their time, perspectives, and experiences with us - and challenging us to keep improving.

14/
And thanks to everyone who presented their work and to everyone who contributed to that work along the way, even if you weren’t able to join us. What you are doing moves our weather enterprise forward. Even small steps over a long time can and do make a big impact.

15/
My heart is full tonight.

Full of joy at seeing my colleagues and friends in person, even behind masks. It has been too long.

And full of gratitude for the hard work and long hours put in by so many to make a meeting like this happen. Thank you.

16/
It is a privilege to be a part of this organization and to have the opportunity, this year especially, to witness up close the dedication of its members (and our HQ staff!) to its mission of connecting operational meteorologists and pursuing excellence.

17/
Thank you all again for being a part of #nwas21.

If you missed a talk want to watch again, the talks are in Whova.

Mark your calendars for the RON (10/6) & the Student & Early Career Workshop (10/24).

Meantime, be smart and stay safe.

I wanna see all y’all @ #nwas22.

18/fin

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More from @nsj

13 Apr 20
Hey, everyone - couple of quick thoughts about the severe threat around these parts.

Not much to say that hasn’t already been said - Storms are likely early tomorrow morning through midday. Can’t rule out something squirrelly overnight, too.

Bottom line: It’ll be active.

1/
Biggest threat will be damaging winds. Even what would normally be a garden-variety shower will be able to tap into winds and bring them to the surface.

Storms could also develop tornadoes, and unfortunately, the potential is for them to be strong.

2/
Even so, this event is one where you should treat severe thunderstorm warnings like you would a tornado warning. The stronger storms will be able to produce winds stronger than a weak tornado.

3/
Read 8 tweets
13 Sep 18
Another day, another couple of totally expected track wobbles. Minor and not shifting impacts all that much.

1/
Florence is HUGE. Put the eye in Columbia SC and the cloud shield would darken the skies from Manteo to Murphy. Plenty of wind in there, but that’s not the main story!

2/
Yes, 40+ mph winds extend some 200 mikes from the center. And yes, the storm weakened in terms of wind.

But that’s not what Florence will go down in the record books for, friends. The winds will play second fiddle to the water - both storm surge and inland flooding.

3/
Read 11 tweets
11 Sep 18
Late Monday thoughts about #Florence.

If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.

Don’t celebrate.

1/
The track has shifted, yes.

Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.

And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.

In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.

2/
What’s concerning - and something the NHC has mentioned in their last discussions - is that the model spread has actually gotten looser the last couple of cycles.

As @gbfishel said at 10pm, we know less about where #Florence is going now than this time yesterday.

3/
Read 13 tweets
7 Sep 18
So, it's Friday afternoon, and #Florence is a little closer to shore. A few thoughts, if I may. 1/
The latest model runs — and more importantly, the broader-scale pattern they are picking up on — suggest the odds of a landfall mid-late next week are going up.

But where?

2/
We're still in that window of anyone telling you they know exactly where #Florence is going is lying to you.

But, like I said earlier this week, someone telling you #Florence could be in your back yard is doing you a favor.

I'd like to think I'm doing you a favor.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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