Late Monday thoughts about #Florence.
If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.
Don’t celebrate.
1/
If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.
Don’t celebrate.
1/
The track has shifted, yes.
Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.
And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.
In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.
2/
Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.
And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.
In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.
2/
The European ensemble is still focused on a track closer to the NC/SC line while the American ensemble is pushing for a more Outer Banks scenario.
The NHC is taking all of that and much more into account with their forecast track, so don’t dwell too long on models.
4/
The NHC is taking all of that and much more into account with their forecast track, so don’t dwell too long on models.
4/
The expected impacts are still the same - widespread flooding (even of places that “never flood”), extended power outages, etc.
All still likely.
And this recent shift shouldn’t change your peeps unless you live in the OBX or NE NC, in which case, you should step it up.
5/
All still likely.
And this recent shift shouldn’t change your peeps unless you live in the OBX or NE NC, in which case, you should step it up.
5/
There is still grave concern that #Florence will stall or otherwise lollygag around the state once it comes on shore, and this will make for a very bad flood for many. Not everyone, but we’re not where we can comfortably let our guard down yet.
6/
6/
Very little change to our timeline. Garden-variety summertime weather for us through Wednesday afternoon.
If there are things you need or want to do to be ready, you still have some time. But less of it than yesterday. Make the best of the next couple of days.
7/
If there are things you need or want to do to be ready, you still have some time. But less of it than yesterday. Make the best of the next couple of days.
7/
Couple of reminders:
- If local officials tell you to evacuate, go. Trust the process, their planning, and their experience.
- If you live near a river, creek, or stream, know where it comes from and goes. Could it flood you or prevent you from leaving if you choose?
8/
- If local officials tell you to evacuate, go. Trust the process, their planning, and their experience.
- If you live near a river, creek, or stream, know where it comes from and goes. Could it flood you or prevent you from leaving if you choose?
8/
- #Florence is hundreds of miles wide. Its impacts will be felt well away from the track - and at this point, even the “cone” you see.
- Winds will be scary and will do damage wherever they go. But water kills & damages more. Don’t ignore threats from flooding.
9/
- Winds will be scary and will do damage wherever they go. But water kills & damages more. Don’t ignore threats from flooding.
9/
As we’ve said, every storm - including this one - is different.
This won’t be a Fran, Floyd, Hugo, Matthew, Isabel, or Hazel.
If thinking about one of those motivates you to prep just a little more, good. If, OTOH, that makes you think you’re in the clear, ignore that.
10/
This won’t be a Fran, Floyd, Hugo, Matthew, Isabel, or Hazel.
If thinking about one of those motivates you to prep just a little more, good. If, OTOH, that makes you think you’re in the clear, ignore that.
10/
One other thing: If you’ve got kids:
- Talk to them about what’s going on: Simple descriptions on their level
- Remind them you’re protecting them
- Let them help you prepare for your family
- Try to maintain “normal” as much as possible
- Model calm
11/
- Talk to them about what’s going on: Simple descriptions on their level
- Remind them you’re protecting them
- Let them help you prepare for your family
- Try to maintain “normal” as much as possible
- Model calm
11/
Let’s get a good night’s sleep, friends.
Still a long way to go before we’ve got this behind us, but we’ll get there.
12/12
Still a long way to go before we’ve got this behind us, but we’ll get there.
12/12
Some perspective.
The latest track at 3 days shifted what, 50 miles, give or take?
We’re trying to nail down the exact location of a swirling mass of weather 100s of miles across and some 1200 miles away three days from now.
50 miles is *nothing*.
And it will shift again.
The latest track at 3 days shifted what, 50 miles, give or take?
We’re trying to nail down the exact location of a swirling mass of weather 100s of miles across and some 1200 miles away three days from now.
50 miles is *nothing*.
And it will shift again.
