Thread by @scotfoodjames

A short 🧵on labour shortages.

Tl;dr: The situation is extremely serious. And without Government action, it is going to get worse, very soon.
Some UK food supply chains are now at breaking point.
And, yes, Christmas is at risk.

🚨🚨
The results of an @FDFScotland survey last week of companies in the food & drink supply chain is a big, flashing, warning sign:
👉93% of companies have vacancies they are struggling to fill
👉97% believe that situation will be worse in future.

A focus on solutions to labour shortages is more important than debating the causes.

BUT, Brexit has been an enormous shock to the labour market; a Brexit implemented in the middle of a pandemic, when supply chains were already straining.
#BrexitFoodShortages

The labour crisis is not all about Brexit tho. It’s way more complex than that. But because it’s so obviously a factor, political action is elusive. Brexit has created a world where too often problems are denied, warnings ignored & evidence is dismissed

The current evidence can’t be dismissed. Staff shortages are everywhere in the food supply chain, from farm to manufacturer to haulier.
And if you think gaps on supermarket shelves are worrying, remember care homes & hospitals need food too👇
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

Nando’s, McDonalds, Greggs, the list goes on. 🐓🍔🥟☕️
Bear in mind, these businesses are big, know their supply chains inside out & have money to throw at the problem. Yet they’re struggling.
More hidden are the 1000s of small businesses struggling to get supplies & deliveries.

Scottish food & drink orgs have just written to @pritipatel & @scotgov with specific requests for support to alleviate the workforce crisis
Q. The most important short term step?
A. Home Office shift on immigration. A 12-month temporary visa could make a big difference.

Immigration has brought enormous talent to our sector, from factory floor to boardroom.
But 1.3M overseas workers have left the UK in last 18 months & its now v. hard to return.
UK-wide, there may be as many as 500,000 jobs needing filled throughout the whole food supply chain.

We’re told everyone is “sick of experts” but it’s crucial Ministers now listen to those at the frontline of food production & supply.
The current strategy appears to be a mix of🤞and “it’ll be alright on the night”. Well it won’t be & we can’t ignore the warnings of worse to come

Industry must do its bit too & keep improving work culture.
🤝We need to embrace apprenticeships & keep engaging with local schools, colleges & unis.
🤝We should be ambassadors for principles of fair work
🤝it’s our job to raise attractiveness of sector (& tackle misconceptions)

I spoke to some of our biggest food firms last wk. They’re all paying above living wage & putting wages up further. Some are also:
👉working with parole officers to employ offenders
👉working with orgs to employ homeless
👉willing to provide jobs/training to Afghan refugees

The issue is not just about pay.
I spoke to a red meat business last wk. Their trainee butcher in the abattoir is paid more than a trainee accountant at one of the “Big 4” firms. And still they can’t get staff.
So complex problems deserve better than than glib soundbites…

https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1430769535091675140

I’ve worked in the agri-food industry for 20+ years. I’ve never known business owners as concerned as they are now about the impact of labour shortages on food supply.
They are at breaking point now and they know what is coming: Christmas
🎄🦃

Follow the data.
Chart 1 shows stocks in shops & warehouses at their lowest level since records began.
Chart 2 shows the enormous spike in food sales at the end of every year, as we head towards Christmas.
Without action on labour shortages, we are in serious trouble.

Long term too, there’s tough Qs to ask of our food system.
Our demand for everything, 24/7, at knock-down prices creates a fragile food chain, vulnerable to shocks.
MI5’s maxim is that society is only ever 4 meals from anarchy.
After the year we’ve had, let’s not test that, eh?