Thread by @ryanmatsumoto1

Something I found interesting is that in the 2003 #CAGOV recall election, although the recall passed, it underperformed polls taken 1-2 months out.

Aug '03 polling average: Yes +24
Sept '03 polling average: Yes +17
Oct' 03 polling average: Yes +14
Actual result: Yes +11

Davis (D) also outperformed his approval rating in the 2003 recall. The exit poll had his approval rating at just 26 percent, but 'no on recall' got 45 percent of the vote.

A lot of voters who disapproved of Davis nonetheless voted against the recall.

cnn.com/ELECTION/2003/…

There are many potential explanations for why the incumbent governor gained at the end, outperformed the polls, and outperformed his own approval rating in the 2003 #CAGOV recall.

But it's possible that this was an example of Democratic-leaning voters "coming home" at the end.