Thread by @DavidMacCdn

Child care fees are a major theme in #Elxn44. There are two dueling plans: a system of refundable tax credits vs. reaching $10/day. Which plan saves more?

In most Canadian cities, the $10/day plan provides more savings in 2022 than tax credits.

A #FactCheckFridays thread. 1/9

The CPC is promising a refundable tax credit of up to $6k to reimburse parents for a portion of fee costs and to end the Child Care Expense Deduction.

The LPC/NDP want $10/day fees across Canada by 2026; LPC plans to cut fees by 50% by 2022, via deals with the provinces. 2/9

Other parties haven’t offered much yet, so we’ll focus on the two options above.

I’m using a StatCan tax model to analyze the CPC plan. I’ve included the tax refund, ending the federal CCED and likely changes to relevant prov. credits in ON, QC and N.L. 3/9

Avg. family in 32 of 37 cities w/ data would save more under the LPC/NDP plan in 2022. Parents in the 5 QC cities would save $1K/yr more under the CPC plan.

Avg. Toronto family would save $10K/yr more under $10/day. Parents in GTA, AB & BC cities see $5K-8K more savings too. 4/9

I've already looked at potential savings by city under the $10/day plan.

Savings range from $4k to $11k in 2022. Parents in QC would see no savings (fees already $8.75/day). By 2026, In places like Toronto, $10/day savings be over $19K/child/yr. 5/9

monitormag.ca/articles/a-10-…

As for the CPC plan, only 6,600 families in Canada would likely receive the full $6K tax refund (out of 1.5M families with eligible child care expenses).

Very few families making $30K are going to spend a 1/4 of income ($8K) on child care to qualify for the full $6K. 6/9

QC, ON & N.L. already have refundable tax credits that are almost the same as the CPC one.

These provinces would have to change their credits, otherwise the combined refunds would exceed what parents pay in fees for any family making under $78K (in ON) or $152K (in QC). 7/9

The CPC plan would return an average of $1,540 to the lowest 10% of families (earning <$22K). Most of the middle 80% of families would get on average $500-to-$1k in savings.

Richest 20% of families would see no average gain nor loss from the CPC plan. 8/9

In sum: Even in 2022, $10/day child care will provide more savings to families with children in FT licensed child care than a tax credit.

Here’s my full write-up examining avg. benefits of the CPC plan and how child care plans compare in your city. 9/9

monitormag.ca/articles/famil…