Tax and cash transfer promises are flying fast and furious in this federal #election. I’ve been modelling them all and here are the average impacts for NDP, CPC and Liberals by deciles of pre-tax income. @ccpa 🧵👇👇👇 for by program and poverty amounts. The NDP proposals provide roughly the same across all income groups at roughly $500 a taxfiler. Its roughly double that for those making 14K to 31K, but worse at the high end, who pay more due to the re-introduction of fairer taxation for capital gains.

So you're paying much more than you did a few years ago for basically everything (ie. #inflation). You might be curious as to where all your money ended up. My new report tracks your inflation $ down, but here is the short version 👇🧵1/x @ccpa policyalternatives.ca/publications/r… Companies blame "input prices" for their rising prices. But one company's "input prices" is just another company's sale price further down the supply chain. Traditional inflation measures looks at the final price for consumers, not at who is pushing up prices along the way 2/x

My new @ccpa report out showing how the provinces are flush with cash despite initial deficit doomsday scenarios when COVID-19 hit. Prov thought they'd have a $49 bil deficit this year...surprise its actually a $7 bil surplus 1/x policyalternatives.ca/publications/r… The first year of the pandemic certainly produced prov deficits larger than 2019, although initial estimates were too pessimistic by 100%. This year's agg prov deficit completely replaced with a surplus (even that's probably too small as Q and Ont haven't updated) 2/x

Another 1% point 🔼in @bankofcanada overnight rate today, up 2.25 points since March. Haven't seen a rapid rate increase cycle like this since the 1990s when happened a few times. 1/x datawrapper.de/_/u25yq/ @ccpa Trouble is that private sector debt levels are wayyy higher today at 225% of GDP. IN 1990s, debt stood at 140% of GDP. So you get much more bang for your buck per % point increase (in all the wrong ways). Cdn economic growth has gotten addicted to private debt. 2/x

The Bank of Canada wants to get inflation from 7.7% (in May 2022) back to 2% target by hiking interest rates. It is trying for a “soft-landing”, where it hits the target but doesn’t cause a recession. My new analysis shows its success rate is 0% over the past 60yrs! @ccpa 1/x In modern Canadian history, going back to 1961, there have been 3 periods when CPI has fallen by at least 5.7 points (7.7-2): 1974-76, 1981-83 and 1991-92. In every instance of a reduction of this magnitude, it was always accompanied by a recession. 2/x
datawrapper.de/_/NKUYd/

The pandemic has been hard on a lot of people. But in 2020, Canada’s 100 highest paid CEOs had their 2nd best pay year in history.

Our latest CEO pay is hot off the presses policyalternatives.ca/publications/r… #cdnpoli @ccpa 1/x @ccpa Canada’s 100 highest paid CEOs make 191 times more than the average worker.
#cdnpoli 2/x

Child care fees are a major theme in #Elxn44. There are two dueling plans: a system of refundable tax credits vs. reaching $10/day. Which plan saves more?

In most Canadian cities, the $10/day plan provides more savings in 2022 than tax credits.

A #FactCheckFridays thread. 1/9 The CPC is promising a refundable tax credit of up to $6k to reimburse parents for a portion of fee costs and to end the Child Care Expense Deduction.

The LPC/NDP want $10/day fees across Canada by 2026; LPC plans to cut fees by 50% by 2022, via deals with the provinces. 2/9

@FinanceCanada has done analysis of the $6 bil tax cut. Some of it is accurate, some is very misleading. I wanted to go through their family type analysis. Is a big difference between “hypothetically could” and “will in the real world”… 1/5 fin.gc.ca/n19/data/19-10… @ccpa #cdnpoli @FinanceCanada @ccpa "A Single Individual Would Save Close to $300 by 2023" - $300 is the max, not avg. Only Half of singles (non-senior) get $300 max and 1/3 of senior singles get $300 max. Half of single seniors get no benefit at all, already have enough deductions 2/5 @ccpa #cdnpoli