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Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
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27 Aug, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I am *starting* to think $SPRT shareholders do not yet realize that each current $SPRT share is worth 0.117 shares of a new entity that will have roughly 39 million shares out post-merger.

i.e. at $40 they are paying $13.5 bil for a 106 mW nat gas power station & some btc miners
also, investors who don't want to stick their wang in a vitamix should note that $SPRT short interest (last reported 8/13) is only 31.5% of the float, not "62%" like some twitter conman is saying.

and ISI Market figures don't show much change in short interest since 8/13.
$SPRT market cap down to *only* $4.7 billion now. Well done, dumbasses. You really stuck it to the man. Image
$SPRT / $GREE down 87% from Aug 27 to today. Absolutely incredible. Sadly, a pretty small win as we were very small in position size given the ridiculous volatility and cost of borrow.

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More from @MidwestHedgie

Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
13 Sep
70% of people who buy an EV would buy one without the subsidies. Therefore a $12k per car U.S. subsidy means the government will be paying at least $40,000 for every incremental EV on the road.
cityobservatory.org/electric-vehic…
Each EV saves 2-3 tons of CO2/yr. Over a 12-year life, the subsidy will cost > $1,300 per incremental ton of Co2 saved.

Direct carbon capture costs $100 per ton. Forests cost $20 per ton.

The Democratic EV subsidy plan is a massive greenwash giveaway to car companies & unions.
I am exhausted by this two-party system in which literally the majority of important decisions are made of, by, & for the marginal special interest groups of both parties. The Dems are by far the better party on social issues, but the two-party system itself is erosive to reason.
Read 5 tweets
Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
12 Feb
Let's talk $CYDY. As an M.D. and a human, I _hope_ their imminent phase 2B/3 trial result for severe covid-19 is a success. However, as an investor, I'm short the stock, because it's trading like it's 1999, with a $4 bil mkt cap, even though its only clinical asset is from 1999.
the company's sole asset: leronlimab. It's a monoclonal antibody developed in the late 1990s that was selected because of its ability to occupy the CCR5 receptor (and thus prevent HIV binding), while having little to no effect on the normal functioning of CCR5
When I first met the CEO, long before Covid-19, he was already telling a story that was too good to be true. Essentially, "We have this HIV drug (leronlimab, formerly PRO 140), that we paid $3.5 million for, and it came with $200 million of drug supply."
Read 28 tweets
Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
11 Feb
$MVIS at $3 bil is the single most absurd pricing in public markets that I have ever seen. This is a nearly-worthless trading sardine, detached from any actual underlying business. [thread]
$MVIS is up today because it announced is close to developing early prototype samples of a LIDAR product. This is not news to anyone who has been following the company. The company is a laggard in the space, and the stock has risen on LIDAR hype, due to SPAC comps, for months.
$MSFT, who is partnered with $GM in Cruise for autonomous vehicles, knows $MVIS better than anyone, and recently had a chance to purchase the company for under $200 mil when Craig-Hallum was hired by management to try to find a buyer. Spoiler alert: it did not. Nor did anyone.
Read 4 tweets
Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
17 Apr 20
Another day, another brutally flawed study going around flu bro (bra?) twit.

Here's the study: the author's tested residents of Santa Clara Co, CA to see if they had antibodies to the virus. Exactly 50 out of 1,500 did. That's 1.5%. (thread 1/)
Alas, the authors decided that 1.5% was not enough. They tested too many Karens and not enough Joses, so based on the presumption that the true prevalence of disease (something they guessed at) is much higher in males and minorities, they raised their estimate of prevalence. 2/
Based on test characteristics provided by the manufacturer, and 67 blood samples at Stanford, the authors believed that the test has almost no false positives, but many false negatives, so they raised their estimate of prevalence even higher. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
10 Apr 20
Link to official Heinsberg coronavirus data summary. This was the area of Germany hardest-hit early. Approximately 2/3 of the families contacted agreed to participate in testing. Preliminary data is from first 500 people tested. 1/ land.nrw/de/pressemitte…
Both PCR (for active infection) and Ab (resolved infection or infection > a few days) were done. 2% pcr positive, 14% Ab positive, total 15%.

If you assume deaths and infections were evenly distributed across the region, total deaths / total infections = 0.37% thus far. 2/
The antibody test is reported as >99% specific, so should be few false positives.

Given roughly 13% (2% of 15%) of observed infections are ongoing, case-fatality rate estimate will probably end up more like 0.4% than 0.37%. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Midwestern Joe Moorhead Stan Hedgie Profile picture
15 Mar 20
Florida is overrun with undiagnosed coronavirus. (thread) Data from the ESSENCE-FL report for the first week of March (through Mar 7), published Mar 11.

1. Statewide flu-like activity at urgent cares and ERs is significantly up. Somewhat unusual to rise this late in year.
2. This uptick could, absent other data, represent either flu or COVID-19. Unfortunately, we know from the % of positive flu tests, which continues to fall rapidly, that it is not flu. It's coronavirus.
3. The extra cases are not localized to any one particular region in Florida. Literally, all of Florida is seeing an uptick in influenza-like illness (that is not influenza).
Read 6 tweets

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