Thread by @ryanmatsumoto1

Here's where I see the NYC Mayor race heading into tomorrow:
- It's a toss-up between Adams and Garcia
- Garcia is very likely to stay ahead of Wiley
- Garcia should win the absentee vote (final round) - the question is whether or not her margin is big enough (she needs +16-17%)

There's a lot of uncertainty, but I'd say Adams may have a very slight advantage.

Potential Final Round Vote Shares:
Adams 50.2%
Garcia 49.8%

Based on early vote / absentee vote data by Assembly District, it seems reasonable to say that the absentee vote may look similar to the early vote (which was about Adams 28.07% Garcia 24.49% in first round - h/t @Wertwhile and @MC_of_A).

This is a decent place to start.

Beyond absentee vote ~ early vote, here are the numbers that got me to Adams 50.2% Garcia 49.8%:

- Garcia wins reallocated RCV absentee votes 71%-29% (vs. 65%-35% for in-person votes)
- Absentees have slightly lower ballot exhaustion rate
- Adams wins ~10k provisionals 57%-43%

To be clear, this is still a toss-up race, it's gonna be close, and both Adams and Garcia have solid chances of winning.

By tomorrow almost all the votes should be reported (early votes + election day votes + absentee votes + affidavits/provisionals).

Should be exciting!