Here's where I see the NYC Mayor race heading into tomorrow:
- It's a toss-up between Adams and Garcia
- Garcia is very likely to stay ahead of Wiley
- Garcia should win the absentee vote (final round) - the question is whether or not her margin is big enough (she needs +16-17%)
There's a lot of uncertainty, but I'd say Adams may have a very slight advantage.

Potential Final Round Vote Shares:
Adams 50.2%
Garcia 49.8%
Based on early vote / absentee vote data by Assembly District, it seems reasonable to say that the absentee vote may look similar to the early vote (which was about Adams 28.07% Garcia 24.49% in first round - h/t @Wertwhile and @MC_of_A).

This is a decent place to start.
Beyond absentee vote ~ early vote, here are the numbers that got me to Adams 50.2% Garcia 49.8%:

- Garcia wins reallocated RCV absentee votes 71%-29% (vs. 65%-35% for in-person votes)
- Absentees have slightly lower ballot exhaustion rate
- Adams wins ~10k provisionals 57%-43%
To be clear, this is still a toss-up race, it's gonna be close, and both Adams and Garcia have solid chances of winning.

By tomorrow almost all the votes should be reported (early votes + election day votes + absentee votes + affidavits/provisionals).

Should be exciting!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ryan Matsumoto

Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ryanmatsumoto1

7 Jul
Overall I'm pretty happy with my final call that Adams had a slight advantage!

Originally had Garcia favored, but glad I flipped when I looked at the data and realized that the pro-Garcia absentee skew was probably not going to be as strong as my priors.

My baseline assumption that the absentee vote would be roughly equivalent to the early vote panned out really well.

Adams led Garcia for first round preferences among early voters by 3.58%.

For absentee/provisional voters it was Adams +2.53%.

The surprise to me was that Garcia actually did worse among reallocated RCV absentee/provisional voters (61% - 39%) than she did among reallocated RCV in-person voters (65% - 35%).

This was because the absentee pool skewed more towards Yang than Wiley.

Read 4 tweets
4 Jul
Gonna take a moment to revisit this scatterplot I made a while back and explain why it probably *overstates* Garcia's strength with absentee voters.

There are some statistical / demographic quirks that make this interesting.

THREAD 🧵(1/7)

Initially I figured that Assembly Districts would be a good comparison point because they are supposed to be evenly populated.

But there are actually *gigantic* turnout differences by Assembly District.

ADs 52/57/67 have 30k+ votes while ADs 47/49/62 have <6.5k votes.

(2/7)
Turnout by Assembly District varies *greatly* in the NYC Mayor race because of factors like race, education, income, partisanship, and immigration.

In a highly diverse place like NYC, these factors can create pretty big turnout differences.

(3/7)
Read 7 tweets
1 Jul
The Adams campaign memo that they put out today to suggest they're gonna win is interesting and worth a read, especially if you think Garcia is strongly favored.

scribd.com/document/51382…
Point #1 seems largely correct, assuming the 'preliminarily valid absentee ballots' number they cite is accurate. It's interesting that the rejection rate is so high, but IIRC that may have happened in past NYC elections as well.

Garcia needs to win absentees by about 15.67%.
I do feel like point #2 ("VBM ballots come from Assembly Districts that favor Eric") can be somewhat of a statistical illusion - Adams' large 1st round margin gets reduced by RCV. There's also a demographic aspect here that can't be captured by geography.

Read 5 tweets
30 Jun
I actually don't think that the NYC BOE erroneously adding ~135k test votes materially changes today's big takeaway - that Garcia gains a lot of ground from ranked choice voting and has a solid shot at winning the NYC Mayor election.

THREAD 🧵(1/4)

The candidates that benefitted the most from the ~130k test votes were disproportionately very minor candidates like Taylor, Chang, Wright, "Paperboy Love Prince," Foldenauer, and Write-Ins.

(2/4)
Many of the test ballots that ranked minor candidates first didn't ranked anyone else or ranked other very minor candidates for 2/3/4/5.

Only 21.44% of the votes for Taylor/Chang/Wright/Prince/Foldenauer/Write-Ins were reallocated by round 7.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

(3/4)
Read 5 tweets
23 Jun
The NYC Mayor results we get tonight will only be first round preferences for early + election day votes (NOT absentee).

The Adams/Wiley campaigns estimated 800k-900k total turnout on the Dem side.

87k Dem absentee ballots have been returned so far out of 208k requested.

(1/4)
32% of returned absentee ballots (Democrats) are from Manhattan while 24% are from Brooklyn. The 32% is likely higher than Manhattan's share of the Democratic primary electorate while 24% is likely lower than Brooklyn's share.

vote.nyc/sites/default/…

(2/4)
Manhattan will probably be Garcia's strongest borough while Brooklyn will be one of Adams' strongest boroughs.

So based on the absentee ballot data I'd say Garcia is probably the candidate most likely to move up with absentees while Adams is most likely to move down.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
Here's my rough estimates for the NYC Mayor primary:

Chance of making it to final round vs. Adams:
Garcia 47%
Wiley 37%
Yang 16%

Chance of beating Adams if they make it to the final round:
Garcia 50%
Wiley 34%
Yang 28%

Overall chances:
Adams 59%
Garcia 24%
Wiley 13%
Yang 4%
An average of 6 ranked choice polls that have the Adams vs. Garcia vs. Wiley penultimate round have Garcia edging out Wiley by 1.83 points. Garcia may also get a boost here from the Yang alliance.

Yang has a chance at the final round, but his position has deteriorated recently.
The average of ranked choice polls suggests Adams vs. Garcia would be a toss-up.

DFP had Wiley doing 12 points worse than Garcia versus Adams, while CitizenData had it at 4 pts.

Yang's best polls (Ipsos/Schoen Cooperman) still have him losing to Adams.

Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(