The @nytimes article and a tweet from one of its authors suggesting that Ron DeSantis's approach to killing Floridians may become a model for other states have a strong air of the Great Barrington Declaration. 1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bar…
@nytimes I linked to the Wikipedia article because the GBD website is unavailable now.

Their idea is to let Covid rip through the population to establish herd immunity, while allegedly protecting the more vulnerable. 2/
DeSantis may believe that he is doing something like that - there was a push to vaccinate the elderly, but he has banned masks in schools. Perhaps he also believes that Covid is no big deal for children. 3/
There is a model for the GBD - Sweden. They did little to mitigate spread, although they somewhat protected the elderly.

Economically, they did about as well as other Nordic countries that did more to prevent Covid deaths, but they killed many more Swedes. 4/
DeSantis may be gambling that the pain will be over by next year and Florida will be Covid-free, the miracle that Politico has already attributed to him.

But filling up hospital beds represents a surprisingly low number of Covid cases on the way to herd immunity. 5/
I want to look at the numbers more carefully tomorrow. But the bottom line is an immense number of deaths both from Covid and from the medical needs that can't be treated when the hospitals are overflowing with Covid patients. 6/6
Oh, and hey @nytimes, do you really think that's a good idea? 7/6

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More from @CherylRofer

1 Aug
I'm going to highlight tweets in this long thread. The preceding tweets explain that PCR assays measure ALL viral RNA present, which is not the same as infective RNA. It could be pieces of RNA that the immune system has chewed up and spit out.
So when the CDC tells us that both vaccinated and unvaccinated people both shed virus, they are talking about RNA, and we don't know how much of it is infective. Probably much less for vaccinated people.

As I've said about a hundred and fifty times in the last few days, we need to do more than you think to get control of exponential increase. So mask up!
Read 5 tweets
16 Jul
I see nothing so far in the reporters' revelation books about the former administration that we didn't know at some level at the time.

Does that mean it's okay for the reporters to have held back details so they can make money on the books?
Does that mean it's okay for multiple outlets to hype those details and subject us, once more, to the horrors of the Trump administration? Just for clicks?
I would answer the first question "no." A reporter's job is to report the news. If it's news now, it was news then. And perhaps it would have stirred people to do more about the damage Trump was doing.

I would answer the second question "no," with reservations.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jul
If General Milley was concerned about a coup, why didn't he go public?

Let's think about what might have happened if he did. 🧵
The media might not have let him. They have been extremely protective of Trump and their imagined image of him.
If he had gotten past the media's pearl-clutching, would he have been believed? Certainly by some part of the population, but Trump-adjacent politicians in particular would rapidly attack him and the media.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jul
@Joshua_Pollack When I feel hopeless about the pandemic never ending, I remind myself that it will.

Globally, people will receive the vaccine or they will get sick. Some of the sick will become immune or will die. Either way, they will be taken out of the susceptible pool. 1/
@Joshua_Pollack The susceptible pool will continue to decrease, so eventually the pandemic will become manageable.

We need to increase production of vaccines so that more are vaccinated more quickly. That will decrease the number of deaths. 2/
@Joshua_Pollack I take the reports of vaccine-resistant variants and waning of immunity with a grain of salt. Much of this looks to me to be wildly overblown. If we have a base of vaccinated people, we have time to deal with it. We're unlikely to have a variant that makes us start from zero. 3/
Read 4 tweets
11 Jul
Every time I read something like this

-->We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a US first strike and retaliate in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defenses.

I stop in my tracks. 1/

armscontrolwonk.com/archive/121234…
There is a certain value of "rationality" for which this makes sense.

The point of a deterrent nuclear force is to survive an adversary's first strike and strike back. That prevents the adversary from making that first strike, according to deterrence theory. 2/
But I can't help reading it another way.

Why would anyone start a nuclear war?

A first strike intended to disable China's nuclear forces, even before this expansion, would involve hundreds of nuclear weapons. Those hundreds of nuclear weapons would damage the US as well. 3/
Read 6 tweets
3 Jun
Back in 2002, I waited to hear the intelligence analysis on the aluminum tubes. I knew that part of the analysis would be by people at Oak Ridge who knew how to build centrifuges. 1/
Gordon and Miller wrote that the intel community agreed that the aluminum tubes were for centrifuges. I had reservations, but figured that that must include those Oak Ridge folks.

It turned out it didn't. Long story short, it was driven by an obsessive CIA analyst. 2/
Gordon and Miller presented that analysis as God's Own Truth. They never mentioned that DOE - the Oak Ridge people - and State's IRB dissented. That was all the difference in the world. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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