Hindsight on 🇦🇫
-Trump wanted out
-Biden inherited & honored deal w/ #Taliban
-“Ending the war” slogan fit Biden’s domestic agenda
-Taliban acted shrewdly:
*didn’t target US in 🇦🇫
*cont’d & stalled diplomacy in Doha
*bought time to enhance its territorial control
1/5
-Trump wanted out
-Biden inherited & honored deal w/ #Taliban
-“Ending the war” slogan fit Biden’s domestic agenda
-Taliban acted shrewdly:
*didn’t target US in 🇦🇫
*cont’d & stalled diplomacy in Doha
*bought time to enhance its territorial control
1/5
-Trump & Biden “informed” #NATO Allies of their decisions. No pre-consultation or collective decision shaping.
-🇺🇸 decided, #NATO followed
-“conditions based” approach replaced by “out together”
-US & NATO narrative shifted to: “counter terrorism goal in🇦🇫 achieved”
2/5
-🇺🇸 decided, #NATO followed
-“conditions based” approach replaced by “out together”
-US & NATO narrative shifted to: “counter terrorism goal in🇦🇫 achieved”
2/5
-poor implementation triggered unexpected problems
-put burden primarily on Biden admin
-lessons also for #NATO & Allies
-overall intelligence, diplomatic & military failures
-US decision sealed in April 2021 but no one planned accordingly and all underestimated the Taliban
3/5
-put burden primarily on Biden admin
-lessons also for #NATO & Allies
-overall intelligence, diplomatic & military failures
-US decision sealed in April 2021 but no one planned accordingly and all underestimated the Taliban
3/5
-Biden premised withdrawal solely on US interests & priorities. While doing so he
•irked Allies
•undermined #NATO credibility & TA partnership
•created an opportunity for adversaries of 🇺🇸 and #NATO
-not best way to engage in “systemic rivalry” w/ global competitors
4/5
•irked Allies
•undermined #NATO credibility & TA partnership
•created an opportunity for adversaries of 🇺🇸 and #NATO
-not best way to engage in “systemic rivalry” w/ global competitors
4/5
Current picture:
-US & NATO washing hands of🇦🇫
-Allies escaping w/ measure of success relegated to evacuations
-EU primarily worried about migration
-Taliban took power by force with impunity & on the way to some form of recognition
-Taliban “stock market value” rising!
5/5
-US & NATO washing hands of🇦🇫
-Allies escaping w/ measure of success relegated to evacuations
-EU primarily worried about migration
-Taliban took power by force with impunity & on the way to some form of recognition
-Taliban “stock market value” rising!
5/5
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