Thread by @fineJPEGs

In this #NFT analysis thread, I'm going to share what I've learned by going to about ~$1 million* in #NFTs after starting 3 weeks ago with ~30 ETH.

I see a lot of beginners getting rekt and while I'm new to NFTs I'm not new to markets.

Let's begin 👇🧵
1/11

First, let's cover the overall market itself, OpenSea had a total of $325M in trading volume in July. On August 29th with the launch of #MYAC there was total trading volume of $322M so almost the entire month of July!
2/11

Source: dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea

So many projects are getting latecomers buying in during peak FOMO. For example, #0N1Force peaked at 3424 sales on August 21st and on August 31st had just 79 sales.
3/11

Across the board, I'm seeing listings like this where people are listing at a loss:
4/11

I expect a lot of these projects that had high trading volume early to bottom in both trading volume and price. That is the time I will accumulate projects I'm interested in. For example, I like #KoalaAgencyNFT and will continue to add here (I'll explain why next).
5/11

My opinion of the NFT market is that we haven't seen a high for the year yet. My opinion for crypto is that we see new ATH's later this year. #Bitcoin $100k+ (see @woonomic) + #Ethereum $6k+ and I expect NFTs to increase in value even further. If the opposite happens 😢
6/11

Circling back to these projects that run hot and then cool off, I've seen similar patterns with other NFTs like #CoolCats and #PudgyPenguins. Initial spikes, followed by price declines and decreasing volume before seeing further spikes in vol. Everyone is chasing what's next
7/11

No one knows the future, but if you're interested in a project, the best time to accumulate if you missed the initial hype is after the hype dies down, volume declines and prices come down. It happens to most projects in this environment, including big ones like #MYAC
8/11

What is great to find in this market after we've cooled are projects that are still seeing increasing volume after the initial hype e.g. #spacepunks @SpacePunksClub right now.
9/11

This is the most bullish NFT chart for me. 300k users is small. Even if we decline from here, long term the direction is up.
Source: dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea
10/11

To win, I've focused on finding PFP art that I liked, communities that have been fun to participate in, and aping in heavily when I like something.

I'll reiterate do not buy #NFTs with money you can't afford to lose. This is how you buy high on FOMO and sell low.

End

*The ~$1 million mark I gave in the beginning is tough to measure.

NFTs can be highly illiquid especially if volume declines. I could not sell everything instantly but I'm only in with what I can afford to lose.