I started investing ~ 10 years ago. I've been able to achieve 26% returns *per year*

A few things have helped:

* @themotleyfool
* The combined teachings of @DavidGFool and @nntaleb (Antifragile)
* Sharing my holdings to be accountable.

My current port as of 9/1/21 ⤵️
(all Ex-cash)

1) $SHOP 17% of port, 2,600% return
2) $MELI 10%, 1,200%
3) $CRWD 7%, 350%
4) $SE 7%, 150%
5) $AXON 5%, 520%
6) $MDB 5%, 420%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $VEEV 5%, 900%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $DDOG 4%, 270%
11) $GOOG/L 4%, 750%
12) $U 3%, 40%
13) $ISRG 3%, 860%
con't
14) $DOCU 3%, 34%
15) $ABNB 3%, 0%
16) $PAYC 3%, 960%
17) $ETSY 2%, 340%
18) $SNOW 2%, 10%
19) $ZEN 2%, 385%
20) $PTON 1%, (16%)
21) $GBTC 1%, 600%
22) $ZM 1%, 16%
23) $TSLA 1%, 22%

Waiting (trading rules) to make some changes previously announced here.
If you want to see the thought process used to make these decisions, @BrianFeroldi and I put out 4-6 videos every week that are totally free.

Watch/subscribe here: youtube.com/c/BrianFeroldi…

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More from @Brian_Stoffel_

28 Aug
In 2011, wife & I quit teaching, rolled over 403(b)’s.

Since then:

💰Never earned more $$ than 2010.
🏠Bought House
👩‍👩‍👧‍👦Started family

BUT, also since then...

Our roll-overs have 10-BAGGED

Surprising lessons on how we did it 🧵
1/ It wasn’t a straight line.

2012=9% returns
2013=28%
2014=(4%)
2015=(2%)
2016=0%

From 2011 to 2016 (FIVE YEARS), entire rollover was up only 30%

Annualized = 5%

S&P 500 during that time = 12% *per year*
2/ In 2016, two things changed.

@DavidGFool asked me to vote on a @themotleyfool service for stocks
I read @nntaleb’s ANTIFRAGILE

I needed a framework to intelligently vote for @DavidGFool’s service, and @nntaleb’s work provided that.

I started working on the framework
Read 18 tweets
4 Aug
Five years ago, after reading @nntaleb's *Antifragile*, I developed a framework for identifying Antifragile companies.

In the past three months, @BrianFeroldi and I have put 23 different companies through that framework.

Here's how they scored, a 🧵⤵️
A quick caveat:

Before 2020, 7 companies had been defined as "Antifragile". Since Jan 1, 2020:

* All 7 have beaten the S&P 500's 41% returns
* The average return is 150% (+109 points)

Why this matters: 2020 was the first "chaos" to measure anti-fragility at scale.
One more caveat:

* A low score doesn't = BAD INVESTMENT. There are tons of false negative.

I'm willing to accept that, because (historically)

* A high score has always = market-beating performance

Keep that in mind, as we go through the three levels.
Read 11 tweets
25 Jun
The 9 Most Anti-Fragile Companies I've Evaluated

(That are still under $100 billion)
Largest to smallest, those 9 are:

1) Airbnb $ABNB - $94 B
2) Mercadolibre $MELI - $77 B
3) Atlassian $TEAM - $67 B
4) CrowdStrike $CRWD - $58 B
5) DocuSign $DOCU - $54 B
6) Peloton $PTON - $37 B
7) Datadog $DDOG - $33 B
8) Unity $U - $32 B
9) Axon $AXON - $11 B
Seven of these companies have been public since January 2020 -- capturing the chaos of the pandemic that "Antifragility" is built for.

Their average returns: 230%
The S&P 500's: 32%

What do all of these companies have in common?

8 things👇
Read 14 tweets
22 Jun
14 Books That Changed My Life 📘

(and what I learned from each of them)
1/

The *Ishmael* series by Daniel Quinn (@Read_Ishmael)

* We were optimized for hunting/gathering
* The way we live is evolutionarily odd
* Every culture has a story, but few identify the story they're enacting.

Also, *Story of B* and *My Ishmael*

amazon.com/Ishmael-Novel-…
2/

The Incerto by Nassim Taleb (@nntaleb)

* Randomness over power of stories (Fooled by Randomness)
* 1% of inputs = 99% of output (Black Swan)
* How to be thrive in uncertainty (Antifragile)
* No opinions without risk of loss (Skin in The Game)

amazon.com/Incerto-Fooled…
Read 19 tweets
15 Jun
There are lots of ways to "win" as investor.

Focusing on valuation is one of them. But you have to be really:
* Smart
* Willing to put in lots of work
* Aware of what market is doing daily

My approach:

I PAY ZERO ATTENTION TO VALUATION.

It's worked. The proof & thinking 👇
What I look for are ANTIFRAGILE companies.

They all:

* Use the Barbell Method (Mission, Moat, Optionality)
* Have Financial Fortitude (Balance Sheet, no Concentration)
* Have Skin in the Game (Founder, Ownership, Glassdoor)

If they have these 3, I don't worry about valuation
The basic idea:

When chaos hits, ppl in real world don't care about valuation of a stock.

* Schools: $ZM will help us with COVID (no one cares about stock price)

* Citizens: Our police need to use $AXON (no one cares about stock price).

Some real examples from my port
Read 14 tweets
12 Jun
Last week, I talked about the Antifragile Framework for investing.

The biggest question, by far: What about VALUATION?

It's not in the framework.

But before I explain why, there are 6 things you need to know about ANTIFRAGILITY and PREDICTING the future. A 🧵
1/

We often take what's recently happened, and project that into the future without end.

That makes sense. 99.9% of the time, you'll be right.

The same was true for our ancestors. NOT doing this would have led to extinction as hunter-gatherers
2/
But 0.1% of the time, you'll be wrong. (Black Swans)

Imagine how WRONG your predictions would've been on:

* October 23, 1929 (Black Thursday)
* December 6, 1945 (Pearl Harbor)
* Summer 1990 (Fall of USSR)
* September 10, 2001 (9/11)
* New Year's Day 2020 (COVID)
Read 12 tweets

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