A real-world high stakes game of experimentation with externalities:
Last night at 10, my car was at the front of several miles of cars on the Garden State Parkway all stuck behind a segment of road 3-5 feet underwater. You could try to drive through if you wanted,
Last night at 10, my car was at the front of several miles of cars on the Garden State Parkway all stuck behind a segment of road 3-5 feet underwater. You could try to drive through if you wanted,
but most people were dissuaded by the half dozen stalled/flooded cars in the water.
For about three hours, one vehicle every 15 minutes or so would go for it. Whether it succeeded depended on its type, the path it took, and the water depth.
For about three hours, one vehicle every 15 minutes or so would go for it. Whether it succeeded depended on its type, the path it took, and the water depth.
The interesting thing is that a failed experiment (trying and having your car stall in 3 feet of water) has considerable private cost: deeply flooded cars are totaled, and the cost of even a lucky recovery in such a case is more than a few thousand dollars.
The lone state trooper there did not project any artificial confidence about this situation; he said up front that they had never seen a major highway flood like this.
But he also didn't discourage experiments. He sort of gave advice and watched with interest what happened.
But he also didn't discourage experiments. He sort of gave advice and watched with interest what happened.
And so did the few hundred drivers with a view of it, the braver ones gauging their own strategies and prospects. A big F-150 making it through was followed by a few others, whereas small SUV's failing dissuaded similar attempts.
One more interesting thing is that when the water began going down visibly, experiments became, if anything, less frequent, since it was pretty clear you could go soon at low risk.
@marketsensei points out that drivers may be too eager to experiment if insurance covers the loss. On the other hand, the classic theory of experimentation with externalities suggests that there were too few experiments!
One last, psychological note. The jam started at 9:45 or so and ended four hours later. That time flew by weirdly fast - the constant small news was absorbing.
Overall very lucky - could have easily been much worse. Take flood warnings seriously!
n/n
Overall very lucky - could have easily been much worse. Take flood warnings seriously!
n/n
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