Thread by @DougKass

@CNBCFastMoney In the entire conversation on $NFLX there is no discussion of fundamentals @MelissaLeeCNBC
Just a bunch of technicals and glittering generalities...
Why I Am Short Netflix
* Netflix's first mover advantage is likely to be challenged in the years ahead

* The company's growth rate will likely moderate relative to expectations as the streaming market grows more crowded
The best days, from a rate of change viewpoint - in subscribers and in revenues, is probably behind Netflix (NFLX) and I expect a rerating - lower - in the

company's shares.
Netflix has had first mover advantage in the streaming business for quite a long time.
Though the company's market dominance will likely continue there are accumulating signposts that demand has been pulled forward and that its leadership in the marketplace

will be now be challenged by numerous other players. That, through mergers and combinations, will have substantial financial resources to compete in the streaming business.
As a result, I expect the company will likely face higher churn rates in the U.S and disappointing d

omestic and global subscriber adds over the next few years. Thus, the company's total global subscribers may fail to reach analyst projections over the intermediate term. And, importantly, the expected penetration of the addressable market of broadband homes may be a difficult

accomplishment.
A failure to scale means that Netflix will be unable to leverage (expensive) content investments, ARPU growth may disappoint and EBIT margins could fall relative to consensus expectations.
Possibly in reaction to a possible maturation process, the company has

announced its intention to leverage its current business and customer base into a new content vertical (gaming), aimed at a younger demographic. The development of gaming as a new venture will take some time. Moreover, the technological and execution challenges of offering

gaming over an all-in-one app is formidable and complex.
I would be skeptical of management's forecast for a "back end of year" hockey stick. Though management voiced optimism for late in 2021, as Netflix's content offerings strengthen, second quarter sub adds and sub guidance

showed evidence of the headwind of re-openings as well as the risks associated with working through the Covid-19 pull-forward hangover.
In terms of price target, I expect the stock to move down into the mid to high $400s in the fullness of time. @threadreaderapp unroll